A pivotal fight in the women’s strawweight division will be the co-headliner for this weekend’s UFC Fight Night Nashville card with the undefeated Tatiana Suarez looking to elevate to title contender status, while the always exciting Jessica Andrade will be looking to end a two-fight losing skid.
Suarez, who’s coming off a submission win in February, is a lofty -360 UFC odds favorite, while the feisty Andrade is a +285 underdog. Read on as I give you my best bets for Andrade vs. Suarez on Saturday night.
Andrade vs Suarez fight odds
Andrade vs Suarez method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Jessica Andrade | Tatiana Suarez |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +600 | <+460> |
| To win by points | +900 | <+330> |
| To win by submission | <+1,300> | <+125> |
| Draw | <+5,000> | <+5,000> |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 4, 2023.
Andrade vs Suarez picks
- Prediction: Suarez ML (-360)
- Best bet: Suarez inside the distance (-140)
- Bonus bet: Fight to end via TKO/KO (+240)
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Andrade vs Suarez betting preview
Andrade represents a pretty big step up in competition for Suarez, whose most previous win came against an unranked fighter who’s won just two of her last seven fights. At 31 years old, the hunger still appears to be there and her recent losses have pretty much only come from high-level competition. With that in mind, I think it’s fair to assume that she’s being undervalued in the fight.
Andrade is a kill-or-be-killed type of fighter, with 71.4% of her fights being finished inside the distance. She’s an incredibly dangerous and versatile finisher, raking up nine wins by KO/TKO and eight wins via submission. She has a unique and explosive power for her 5’1” frame which makes her an attractive betting option as an almost three-to-one underdog.
Time and time again throughout her career, Andrade's shown an ability to bounce back after losses. She’s actually been fantastic in her career off a loss, boasting an 8-2 record, and has never lost more than two straight.
At 9-0, Suarez has put quite the resume together that includes a submission victory over current women’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter Alexa Grasso back in 2018. The Ultimate Fighter season 23 winner had her career stalled when she took a three-and-a-half year hiatus from the sport, but showed no signs of rust in her comeback fight in February — a submission win over Montana De La Rosa.
Suarez won the fight vs De La Rosa by guillotine, which was her third submission win in six UFC fights. She also had two submission victories on her way to winning the Ultimate Fighter, and I think this could be her best path to victory against Andrade, who would probably prefer to keep the fight standing.
Suarez is efficient at getting the fight to the mat with a takedown average of 6.12 per fifteen minutes and past opponents haven’t had an answer for her smothering control. Suarez could mimic the blueprint Valentina Shevchenko used in her lopsided win over Andrade, where she had seven takedowns and over five minutes of control inside nine minutes of fight time, which ultimately led to a savage TKO via elbows from the crucifix position.
If it wasn’t for her long layoff, Suarez would be ranked much higher than 10th in the strawweight division and I think these odds are proof of that. She’s on the cusp of breaking into title contention and doing what she does best can ultimately get her there.
Andrade vs Suarez tale of the tape
| Jessica Andrade | Tatiana Suarez | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 32 |
| 5-feet-1 | Height | 5-feet-4 |
| 115 lbs | Weight | 115 lbs |
| 62 inches | Reach | 66 inches |
| 24-11 | Record | 10-0 |
Andrade vs Suarez UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Tatiana Suarez ML
This could be a case of two fighters whose careers are going in different directions. Andrade has taken a lot of damage in her career, absorbing an average of 5.40 significant strikes per minute, and it could catch up to her.
Suarez is the much better defensive striker with just 1.34 significant strikes absorbed per minute and has a clear path to victory if she can get this on the mat.
Prediction: Tatiana Suarez moneyline (-360 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Tatiana Suarez inside the distance
Andrade has been finished seven times in the UFC — four times by KO/TKO and three times by submission.
Her aggressiveness leaves her in vulnerable positions that I think a finisher like Suarez can take advantage of. I expect her to take this fight to the ground and win by either submission or ground and pound.
Pick: Tatiana Suarez by TK/KO/Submission or DQ (-140 at DraftKings)
Another bet to consider: Fight to end via TKO/KO
This bet leaves the door open for each fighter to win and offers good value considering Andrade’s high-volume style of fighting — both giving and receiving.
She’ll be at a disadvantage if the fight is on the ground where she’ll be in danger of getting ground and pounded, but Andrade's one-punch knockout power makes her extremely dangerous when the fighters are on their feet.
Pick: Fight to end via TKO/KO (+240 at FanDuel)
