Max Griffin and Michael Morales are set to tee off on each other in a battle of surging welterweights taking place on the undercard of the July 1 edition of UFC Fight Night from The Apex in Las Vegas.
UFC odds have installed the undefeated Morales as a considerable -240 favorite. The dangerous Griffin is a +200 underdog.
Morales is taking a step up in class against the aging, but still capable veteran in Griffin.
This figures to be a fight that could steal the show, so let’s see how I’m calling the action ahead of Griffin vs. Morales this Saturday, July 1.
Max Griffin vs Michael Morales fight odds
Max Griffin vs Michael Morales method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Max Griffin | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +650 | +150 |
| To win by Points | +400 | +1785 |
| To win by Submission | +2,000 | +1,200 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 1, 2023.
Max Griffin vs Michael Morales picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Max Griffin vs Michael Morales betting preview
Morales is being positioned for something big, and he’s looked good in the fights he’s had in the UFC so far. He rolled late substitute Adam Fugitt over in three rounds. The high-octane fighter is taking a big step up in class and is going to be tested.
What Morales has going for him is a three-inch advantage in reach and a better gas tank. With his explosive movement and busy hands, he lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy. He’ll figure to be first in any exchanges against the older Griffin, but a measured approach might be better than an all-out blitz.
Griffin tends to be less active as the fight progresses. Morales’ defense could be better, and it will be critical to avoid the sharper strikes Griffin will throw in the first round. If he can get out of the first by expanding some of Griffin’s energy, and not absorbing any major punishment, he can outpace the veteran the rest of the way.
Griffin started his UFC run on rocky terms, going 3-6 from 2016-2020. He turned it around, going 4-1 in his last five with only a split-decision loss to Neal Magny that could have gone either way. Going into this fight, Griffin isn’t exactly a stepping stone, and he has a chip on his shoulder due to his presumed position as one.
The Santa Barbara native fires off stiff shots, and seems to be hitting his stride at 37. Griffin lands 4.23 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy, and also has superior striking defense (57%) compared to Morales (40%), and is better at landing takedowns (50% vs. 40%). He’s also scored a first-round knockdown in each of his last four fights.
With Morales looking to impose his youth and agility on Griffin, that could give the veteran plenty of chances to land a big shot early on. Morales tends to leap in and throw a lot of shots, and his striking defense isn’t where it should be for all the praise he’s getting. Considering Griffin has shared the octagon with the likes of Colby Covington, Thiago Alves, and Magny, there’s little that can surprise him.
Max Griffin vs Michael Morales tale of the tape
| Max Griffin | Michael Morales | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 24 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-feet |
| 170 pounds | Weight | 170 pounds |
| 76 inches | Reach | 79 inches |
| 19-9 | Record | 14-0 |
Max Griffin vs Michael Morales UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Morales
Griffin’s only chance of winning is going to be inside the first round. While Morales might still be green, he has better conditioning and will be the busier fighter while Griffin sits back and looks for counters. Eventually, Griffin fades down the stretch, giving Morales some late-scoring opportunities to pull ahead with a win.
Prediction: Morales moneyline (-240 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Morales by decision
This fight will be a close one early, but while Morales should take over late, I don’t see him getting a stoppage over Griffin. The veteran is durable enough to take the shots and fight back, but he won’t be able to match the hustle as he’s outworked on the back end of the fight. I’m taking Morales by decision as the best bet.
Pick: Morales to win by decision (+165 at DraftKings)
