Sean Strickland vs. Abu Magomedov is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, July 1.
This is an interesting matchup between a Top-10 middleweight contender in Strickland and a promotional newcomer in Magomedov who has just a single UFC fight on his resume.
UFC betting odds for this fight opened with Strickland as a -175 favorite but money has poured in on the underdog. Strickland is now around -150, while Magomedov is at +130.
Here are my best free UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov picks and predictions for July 1 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov fight odds
Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Sean Strickland | Abus Magomedov |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +275 | +350 |
| To win by Points | +165 | +550 |
| To win by Submission | +1,400 | +650 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 1, 2023.
Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov betting preview
Sean "Tarzan" Strickland is the No. 7 ranked middleweight contender and is coming off a unanimous decision win against Nassourdine Imavov in January. That victory snapped a two-fight skid for Strickland and improved his record to 6-2 since returning to the octagon after recovering from a motorcycle injury in 2020.
The 32-year-old is a high-volume striker with crisp technical boxing and an excellent gas tank. He lands 5.76 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25 and his takedown defense sits at an impressive 85%.
Strickland has become one of the more popular fighters in the UFC due to his aggressiveness in the octagon and his brash personality outside of it.
Abusupiyan Magomedov is coming off a sensational UFC debut last September when he knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus in 19 seconds. That result proved that ring rust wasn't an issue since he hadn't fought in 20 months since submitting Cezariusz Kesik at KSW in 2020.
Magomedov is 12-1-1 in his last 14 fights with his only defeat coming against Louis Taylor when they fought for the PFL middleweight championship in 2018.
The 32-year-old Magomedov was raised in Dagestan and while he has solid wrestling ability he's far more dangerous as a striker than many of his fellow Dagestanis. He throws dangerous kicks to every level and is very accurate with his punches. Of his last 15 wins, 14 have come inside the distance with nine by way of knockout.
Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov tale of the tape
| Sean Strickland | Abus Magomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 32 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot-2 |
| 185 pounds | Weight | 186 pounds |
| 76 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 26-5 (10 KO) | Record | 25-4-1 (14 KO) |
Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Strickland
From a pure style matchup perspective, I can see why Magomedov is a live dog. After all, Strickland prefers to fight behind his jab and finds it much tougher to do that when he doesn't have a reach advantage. Not only does Magomedov have a 2-inch reach advantage on Strickland but his best weapons are his kicks which could hurt the boxing-heavy Strickland at range.
That said, I simply can't back Magomedov at this price given the quality of his opponents. Magomedov had a draw against Gasan Umalatov at PFL in 2018 and Umalatov had gone just 1-3 in the UFC before getting cut. Magomedov bounced back with a decision win against Sadibou Sy before getting starched in the first round by a 40-year-old MMA journeyman in Taylor.
Since then he has fought just three times, defeating Slavis Simeunovic in his MMA debut, beating Cezariusz Kesik who has dropped three of his last four KSW bouts, and knocking out Stoltzfus who is 1-4 in his last five.
Strickland has fought against the cream of the crop in the UFC and has picked up wins against ranked middleweights like Brendan Allen, Uriah Hall, Jack Hermansson, and Imavov. His only defeats at 185 pounds have come against Alex Pereira who is the hardest hitter in the division and No. 3 contender Jared Cannonier in what was an extremely competitive split decision.
Expect Strickland's toughness, technical striking, and experience in main events to lead him to a victory here.
Prediction: Strickland moneyline (-138 at bet365)
Fight best bet: Strickland by decision
If Magomedov pulls off the upset it will likely need to be by early stoppage after landing some powerful shots. Once Strickland settles in he's going to start winning rounds, and the longer this fight goes the more it favors Strickland who has more experience and better cardio.
Strickland's decision loss to the heavy-handed Cannonier was razor close and seven of his previous nine wins have come by points. Look for him to win by decision against Magomedov who is facing easily the toughest foe of his career.
Pick: Strickland by decision (+220 at bet365)
