NFL Picks

Put the kettle on for this early wakeup call on Sunday morning. The Vikings and Jets play the first London game of the year in Hotspur Stadium, where it could be rainy and windy on that semi-covered soccer venue which has been criticized for the quality of turf – as they switch from grass to artificial turf for these NFL games. I don’t know how much Aaron Rodgers really wants to be there, and that could be compounded by the conditions come game time. He’s nursing a bum knee and has to sit his old bones on a plane for the overseas trip. And that’s before Flores’ aggressive defense comes flying at him. Rodgers is savvy and can handle himself versus the blitz, but he was sacked five times by the Broncos last Sunday – the only other team blitzing at a higher rate than Minny. I’ll keep it simple Vikings outright.

The Jets struggled mightily against Denver's pass rush last week and now they face a Brian Flores-led defense that does similar things. The Vikes blitz at the second-highest rate (40.8%) while leading the league in sacks (17) and pressures (69). New York's young offensive line struggled to pick up the blitz last week and the timing and cadence with Rodgers was off. Those issues could be exacerbated this week with RT Morgan Moses sidelined and 63,000 raucous fans making it tough to hear at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Expect Minnesota's top-ranked defense to frustrate Rodgers while Minnesota's offense takes advantage of the Jets subpar run D (27th in defensive rush success rate) to cover this small spread. 

Player projections for Week 5 range from 53 yards to as many as 68 yards from Swift. My number is at 59.8 rushing yards, knowing that his ceiling is higher considering Carolina’s decimated defense and the Bears’ likelihood to run the ball in the final 30 minutes. Overall, the Panthers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and sit 29^th in ESPN’s run block win rate. Compounding those problems is a laundry list of ailments to the front seven of this defense. Carolina is without standout DL Derrick Brown (knee) and LB Shaq Thompson (Achilles) for the rest of the season and will not have LB Josey Jewell for a while (hamstring). Nose tackle Shy Tuttle and LB Charles Harris are also questionable after being limited in practice.

Despite how badly Swift struggled through the first three weeks, he's had double-digit carries in every game and two-thirds of all Chicago Bears RB rush attempts this season. Now, coming off an encouraging performance, I'm expecting a similar workload again against a Carolina Panthers defense that has given up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (148.8) and allows 4.6 yards per run. The Panthers also sit 29th in run-stop win rate — and these numbers are skewed by only allowing 55 rush yards to Las Vegas, which has a comically awful run game.

Jayden Daniels had 10+ rush attempts in his first three games of the year, averaging 12.7 carries per game during that span. He rushed eight times for 47 yards against the Cardinals last week, but in a blowout victory, there wasn't much reason for Kliff Kingsbury to give him designed runs. He should get more designed runs here, especially if starting RB Brian Robinson doesn't suit up due to a knee injury. The Cards are also 31st in the league in pass rush win rate (28%) while the Browns rank third (55%) so there's a greater chance he'll be flushed from the pocket and forced into scrambling situations this week.

The Commanders have the highest-rated offense in the NFL but they can't sustain their historic level of play — especially with a rookie QB at the helm. Jayden Daniels has been fantastic but he's due for regression and this is the toughest defense he's faced. Washington's offense has also relied heavily on RB Brian Robinson Jr. (74 touches for 375 yards) and he's questionable with a knee injury. On the other side of the ball, the Commanders are 31st in the league in defensive success rate and 32nd in defensive EPA. Cleveland's O-line is extremely banged up but Washington's defensive front isn't good enough to take advantage and Deshaun Watson should be able to move the ball better than he has been. This is buy-low spot for the Browns and a sell-high point for the Commanders which has me backing the squad with the far better defense catching points.

The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards (145.5 per game) and sit 31st in run-stop win rate, despite having yet to face a truly scary running back. Well, Derrick Henry is coming to town this Sunday... and there's still nobody scarier: After a dud in his Baltimore Ravens debut in Week 1, Henry has erupted for 144.7 yards per game (on 6.5 yards per carry) over the last three weeks, with an NFL-leading seven runs of 20+ yards. He's second in the NFL in yards after contact and third in missed tackles forced — and gets a boost from the Bengals' defensive line being decimated by injuries.

It's been ugly for the Dolphins, but I’m still confident head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tyler Huntley will have the offense in better shape Sunday following a full week of practice. The Pats rank 28th in defensive DVOA while allowing the eighth-highest EPA per play, after all. It hasn’t been pretty on the other side of the ball for the Patriots, either. New England is running out a makeshift offensive line, and quarterback Jacoby Brisset has a single big-time throw while airing it out for a pedestrian 5.3 yards per attempt and 6.8 aDoT.

Houston Texans WR Nico Collins leads all receivers in receiving yards by over 100 yards and has five fewer catches than No. 2 Malik Nabers. He will be featured heavily again this week vs. the Bills, who showed their defensive issues last week in prime time. He hasn't been held to below 86 yards this year and has soaked up 43 targets through four weeks. Since Joe Mixon hit the shelf, Collins leads all WRs in red-zone targets with seven and although he's caught just one of those, it was for a score. The volume is more predictable than the output and Collins is a real RZ threat as well as everywhere else on the field. Five of those seven RZ targets also came inside the 5-yard line. Mixon missed practice early this week and his absence would be great for this TD prop as Cam Akers is not the answer. Collins is WR1 in my mind and I'd buy this TD to +110/+115. 

Austin Ekeler is trying to return from a concussion, which makes the RB situation a little muddy, but Daniels is the consistent piece to bet on. The OROTY favorite has rushed for a TD in three of the four weeks to open the season and has 12 red-zone carries, which would rank ninth among NFL running backs. All of those RBs ahead of him are all shorter than Daniels' +135 TD price this week. He was +150 last week vs. the Cardinals and considering that might be the easiest matchup for this prop, his +135 price this week vs. the Cleveland Browns doesn't seem like the books have adjusted his price much, if at all. The Browns defense has dealt with injuries all year as neither Myles Garrett nor linebacker Jordan Hicks is 100%. If Ekeler is out again, I'm jumping on shares of Jeremy McNichols at +550 at DraftKings, too, as it was the backup RB who finished with two TDs last week with Ekeler out. 

Roschon Johnson didn't stuff the stat sheet last week as D'Andre Swift awoke from his slumber, but RJ got the majority of the work near the goal line and bettors are getting a better price for his anytime TD prop than last week and that's after he took seven carries for a score with two red-zone totes. Swift waking up might almost be better for RJ to score as the Chicago Bears certainly move the ball better with Swift contributing. It's also an incredible matchup at home vs. the Carolina Panthers, who have allowed six rushing TDs already this season and are in even worse shape health-wise heading into Week 5. I don't love going back-to-back on TD rushers, but RJ cashed last week, is getting the RZ carries on an improving offense, and faces an injured defense.  

To me, the Dolphins can only go up from here. Emergency QB Tyler Huntley, who showed up as a free agent last week, gets a full run of practice in Mike McDaniel’s complex schemes, cooking up chemistry with the wide receivers. He also faces a New England defense ranked 25th in EPA allowed per play and 28th in DVOA, with a slew of ailments stripping that stop unit of any promise. The Patriots’ offense is even worse, which is saying something, and could be down to a few rusty lawn chairs on the offensive line. The team is committed to QB Jacoby Brissett, who just isn’t pushing the ball downfield (third lowest air yards per attempt) and New England has a measly four passing plays of 20 or more yards all season. That bails out a bad Dolphins defense that could be missing some bodies of its own in Week 5.

Jaguars rookie Brian Thomas has been a lone bright spot through the first four weeks with 17 receptions for 275 yards and a pair of scores on just 26 targets. His 12.8 aDoT and 10.6 yards per target are high-end marks, and he's garnered a healthy 21.1% target share, 80.8 air yards per game and racked up 82 yards after the catch. Indy has also allowed the third-highest catch rate (69.9%) to opposing wide receivers, and quarterbacks have aired it out for the seventh-highest yards per attempt (7.81), while also generating the ninth-highest EPA per dropback.

Taking on a bad Rams defense inside the fast track of SoFi. Jordan Love got to shake the rust off last week and no one was happier to have him back than Reed, who had 130+ yards and a TD. With Christian Watson down, there are more looks to go around. Reed not great vs. man but loves him some zone coverage, in fact he’s rated as the 4^th best WR vs. zone at PFF. What do the Rams do? Run a butt ton of zone on defense. Reed also gets touches in the run game too. Rams stink vs. the run. Tall total and the potential for a shootout. Reed finds the end zone again in Week 5.

“Danny Dimes” sits among the Top 10 in most advanced QB metrics the previous two weeks, including No. 2 in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation). He’s also been stretching the field with a renewed confidence in his arm, owning the ninth most air yards per attempt. Seattle is in a tough spot in Week 5. Not only are the Seahawks crunched for time after playing Monday but they’re also sandwiched between a letdown spot (playing at Detroit on MNF) and a look-ahead spot (versus 49ers on TNF in Week 6). Seattle’s vaunted defense showed some cracks against the Lions after puffing up its numbers against weaker foes in the first three games, especially when it came to rival QBs. That stop unit is still missing a ton of starters and just lost a Pro Bowl safety on the short week.

The Los Angeles Rams run zone at the eighth-highest rate in the league, but are 28th or worse in defensive success rate, yards per reception, and yards allowed per coverage snap while in zone. Green Bay has excelled against zone coverages, as Love's wide receiver trio of Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs are all in the Top 25 of WR in yards/catch vs. zone — and all are in the Top 30 in yards per route run vs. zone.

Hunt dominated early downs and led the Kansas City RB room in snaps last week and he could see even more work Monday night as his fitness improves. That puts him in a good spot to top this total against the New Orleans Saints, who allowed opposing RBs to gain 235 yards on a whopping 7.3 yards per carry over the last two weeks. I don't expect Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be much of a factor (if he even suits up), meaning Hunt should have no issues topping this total in another game with double-digit carries.