NBA Picks

Anunoby has become one of the more active attackers in this Knicks offense, upping his drive rates from 5.0 to 7.8 in those final two dozen contests. He played with that aggression in Game 1 but was much more passive in Game 2. He took only 10 shots – compared to the 18 FGAs in the series opener – and only three of those came from the foul line down (he made all three). Anunoby did a much better job getting inside in Game 1 with eight FGAs from the foul line inward (making four of those closer looks). Player projections are positive for OG in Game 3. His scoring forecast ranges from 17 points to 18.6 tallies on Thursday, which sit above his scoring prop of 15.5 O/U. Anunoby’s point total opened as high as 16.5 and is still there at some shops, while others are dealing Over 15.5 at -133. Given the projections, that result should be closer to -140. However, shopping the props you can find the Over 15.5 points at -115 at bet365.

Oklahoma City's offense compromises Memphis's very roster design. There is no adjustment to be made when that exposed in a series. Even though the Thunder have covered six straight games, this spread falling to -8.5 from -14 in Game 2 is only a routine homecourt advantage shift. OKC deserves more credit than that, especially against someone it has beaten in nine straight across the last two seasons, along with winning against the spread in eight of those nine.

Chet Holmgren plays Edey off the court. Holmgren is far more physical than given credit for, cutting into some of Edey’s purpose right there, and his offensive skill set drags the massive rookie away from the hoop, rendering his best assets moot. If Edey cannot defend the rim or crash the boards, he drags down Memphis. Even in Game 2, nominally competitive into the fourth quarter, Edey played only 26 minutes and snagged just seven rebounds. For context: Jaren Jackson Jr. played 34 minutes, Santi Aldama played 30 minutes, and even Marvin Bagley III logged 11. Memphis needed size. It just needed size that could keep up better on the perimeter. Edey’s workload is not going to increase.

Holmgen has made three triples in both games this series, notably taking 8 in Game 2. His perimeter abilities pull Memphis’s bigs away from the hoop, costing the Grizzlies defensive designs based on Zach Edey. There is no Grizzlies’ adjustment that will scare Holmgren off the arc. A game with a closer spread might even require him to play 35 minutes, which will only mean more chances to heave from long range. Holmgren hit 44.4% of his 3s in the last month of the regular season, hitting multiple 3s in 6 of those 12 games, now 8 of 14 when including the playoffs and 5 of his last 6. That includes going 54.5% from deep in five games on the road, hitting multiple 3s in 3 of those road games.