College Basketball Picks

Sophomore guard Bubu Benjamin has topped 18+ in three straight, and I expect him to help the Tarleton State Texans keep Thursday’s clash close enough to cover the big number. Tarleton State is 8-1 SU and 6-2-0 ATS at home. They host a Grand Canyon Antelopes group with a 2-3 SU away mark and are 1-4-0 ATS on the road. The Texans have won two straight at  and Benjamin’s hot hand should help keep this game close enough for a Tarleton State cover.

Gillespie jacked up nine triples in that first matchup with the Cornhuskers, knocking down five of those long-range looks en route to a 22-point performance in a 69-66 victory. Nebraska sold out on stopping Queen inside, throwing extra bodies at the Terps’ interior. Maryland’s offense is very good at spacing the floor, which has been a sore spot for Nebraska’s lumbering defense. Gillespie is shooting 40% from beyond the arc this year, knocking down an average of 2.3 triples on 5.8 attempts from distance. In recent outings, he’s upped his activity from outside, getting up six or more shots from 3-point land in his last 10 games. His player projections for tonight call for 2.8 makes from long range against Nebraska.

UC Davis has the second-best defense in the Big West but also has the second-worst offense. The Aggies are an impressive 55th in the country in defensive efficiency (97.4 points allowed per 100 possessions) but are just 341st in offensive efficiency (93.8). The Aggies are also just 10th in the Big West in eFG% (46.4%) during conference play while the Highlanders are eighth (49.9%). Both teams also play at a slow tempo, and the Under is 15-5 in the Aggies' last 20 games.

The Bulls are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. They are coming off a 75-70 loss at home against a Wichita State squad that is near the bottom of the conference with a 3-7 mark. Now they face the Memphis Tigers who are atop the AAC with a 10-1 record. To be fair, the Tigers have gone just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. That said, the spread for this game is -7 which is right below what seems to be the tipping-point for this team to win with margin with eight of their last 11 victories coming by more than seven points. Memphis is 32nd in the country in FT rate (28%) while the Bulls are outside the Top 250 in opponent FT rate (26.3%). The Tigers also lead the nation in 3PT% (40.3%) and shoot lights out away from home. On the other side of the floor, Memphis is first in the AAC in adjusted defensive efficiency during conference play while USF is 10th in adjusted offense. 

Senior center Bent Luechten has scored 21+ in his last two, and I like him to lead the UC Irvine Anteaters to a comfortable victory when they host the  UC Santa Barbara Gauchos. The Anteaters are 8-1 SU and 6-2-0 ATS at Bren Events Center. Santa Barbara is 6-4 SU with a 4-5-1 ATS away mark. They’ve failed to cover in their last three meetings with their Big West rival, and I’m betting the Anteaters’ dominance continues Thursday night with a comfortable home victory.

Gonzaga likes to attack the rim, and that’s precisely where its opponent is weakest. USF is allowing an incredible amount of shots in the paint, ranking 342nd in Haslametrics’ near-proximity attempt rate. Gerlufsen’s defensive philosophy involves shutting down the 3-point line. USF ranks ninth in 3-pointers allowed per game (5.7), but Gonzaga doesn’t live and die from long range and will be content to push the pace and attack the rim relentlessly.