NFL Picks

The Bears defense has impressed with ranks of first in pass-rush win rate and second in run-stop win rate while also holding opponents to the fourth-lowest EPA per play, and I think QB Caleb Williams has his best game yet on tap against the Colts. Indy ranks 30th in defensive DVOA while allowing the sixth-highest EPA per play, and the Colts haven’t been able to generate a consistent pass rush, after all.

Shaheed has been one of the biggest early beneficiaries of this revamped New Orleans Saints offense, with a team-leading nine targets, seven catches, and 169 yards through two games. He has an average depth of target of 17.6 yards (seventh-highest in the NFL), after posting an aDOT of 14.6 in 2023 (14th among all WRs), and faces a suspect Philadelphia Eagles defense that has given up the fifth-most passing yards, second-most yards per completion, and third-most completions of 20+ yards already... while the front seven has the second-lowest pressure rate in the league.

Diggs' projection models all sit above his total of 49.5 yards, ranging from 53 yards to a high flirting with 60 yards receiving. My number for Diggs is just south of 56 yards through the air. It should be noted, those forecasts don’t reflect the uptick in targets that could come Diggs’ way if other skill players sit out. The former Bills WR is very familiar with Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his blitz-heavy zone schemes. During Flores’ time as head coach for the Miami Dolphins, he faced Diggs and the Bills four times with the speedy wideout amassing 329 totals yards on 24 catches (13.7 yards per catch) along with three touchdowns.

Nix looked extremely sharp in the preseason and while he struggled in Week 1, playing on the road at Lumen Field against defensive guru Mike Macdonald would be a brutal task for any QB in their first career start. He threw two picks last week but still finished with 246 passing yards against a tough Steelers stop unit despite his receivers dropping three passes. While his completion percentage was just 57.1% in Week 2, his adjusted completion percentage was an impressive 74.2% and his average depth of target surged to 9.8 yards from 6.0 yards in Week 1. On Sunday, Nix faces a banged-up Bucs defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in dropback success rate and surrendered 324 passing yards last week. 

No matter which side of the fence the spread sits on, oddsmakers are expecting a closer game with plenty of points. Philadelphia is by far the best offensive opposition New Orleans has faced in 2024, entering Week 3 ranked Top 10 in both EPA per play and Offensive DVOA at FTN. The game script of a back-and-forth shootout lends itself to a significant uptick in passing plays from the Saints and more involvement from their WR1. Player projections for Olave range from lows of 67.3 yards to a high of 83.3, but all sit north of the yardage total. My number comes out just over 70 yards receiving for the former Ohio State standout and there’s potential that he’ll make good on those higher forecasts.

The Giants have surrendered a healthy 5.81 yards per carry to opposing running backs through two games, and Ford averaged 4.0 yards per tote with 2.87 yards after contact per attempt and an elite 32.0 breakaway percentage last season. It's just two games, but he's at 5.7 YPC and 33.3 BAY% to start 2024, and I'm anticipating him receiving double-digit touches with just D'Onta Foreman in the backfield to split carries with. Of course, the Giants have allowed the seventh-highest EPA per rush and rank 25th in run-defense grade per PFF, too.

Pittsburgh is likely stuck with Justin Fields again as Russell Wilson is still down with a calf injury. The Steelers have scored only one touchdown in the opening two games, have a collective 32 first downs (23rd), and sit 25th in Offensive DVOA. The Steelers defense has had to pick up that slack. The stop unit has been disruptive but hasn’t faced the stiffest competition in Atlanta and Denver. That shows in the Defensive DVOA ratings, with Pittsburgh sitting 10th despite allowing a total of only 16 points. You could say the same for Los Angeles, which checked Las Vegas and Carolina to a combined 13 points. However, the advanced metrics are much kinder, ranking L.A. tops in EPA allowed per play and No. 5 in DVOA. Hoping Herbert is OK to go in Week 3.

Minnesota’s defense is the real star of the show. Brian Flores’ aggressive approach is disrupting rivals with a blitz-happy attack that has cooked up a pressure rate of 36.6% per dropback along with a league-high 11 sacks. Stroud was sacked three times versus Chicago last Sunday night, making it seven sacks through two weeks while the pass protection allows him to feel pressure on almost 29% of dropbacks. Adding to those woes could be a toothless run game, with RBs Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both injured, and a starting center missing a second straight game. The Vikings' injury report looks positive, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison trending toward a Week 3 showing.

Through two games, Chicago is Top 10 in the “holy grail” analytics and continues to generate game-changing plays with four takeaways, six sacks, and a pressure rate of 31%. The Bears are also slamming the door on third downs (25% - third lowest) and holding foes to the fourth lowest success rate per play in the land. Anthony Richardson’s wowed with his big arm but also made bettors shake their heads with four interceptions and two fumbles (not lost) in the first two outings of 2024. He’s going to turn the ball over against Chicago. It’s going to happen. Perhaps the question should be, “how many times?”

Don't be scared off by Jordan Love practicing since books seem convinced he won't suit up. Oddsmakers have stuck to the Titans as faves with the line only briefly slimming to -1.5 when Love said he was "hopeful" to play. The line quickly moved back to Titans -2.5 and I'd take them at anything under a field goal. Since 2010, teams that start out 0-2 SU are 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3. The Packers pulled off the upset with Malik Willis at QB last week but indy was unable to adjust to a one-dimensional Green Bay offense that ran the ball 53 times. The Titans have the big bodies up front to plug up the run and force Willis to beat them with his arm. The Titans could very easily be 2-0 if not for boneheaded mistakes and that bad luck should turn around here. 

Antonio Pierce also came out after their Week 2 win over the Ravens and beat the drum for Zamir White who he said needs to get the ball 20 or more times this week, and that's the goal for Week 3. It was Alex Mattison who got the RZ TD last week, but it's still White's starting role, and being a 5.5-point favorite should only help White get going. White played 39 snaps in Week 2, but the Raiders also passed the ball 38 times in a game they were chasing for the majority of it. If Pierce can get his way and this game scripts remains neutral, White should have a big role indoors for the Raiders' home opener vs. a defense without its best defensive lineman and two more starters on the D-line questionable

When WR Deebo Samuel is out, San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle rises to the occasion: He's averaged 88.4 yards per game over the last three years in games when Deebo is sidelined, plus he faces a putrid Los Angeles Rams defense that allows the fifth-most receptions, third-most yards, and second-most yards per coverage snap to tight ends. Kittle should also get a boost as the No. 1 option as Niners WR Brandon Aiyuk continues to work himself back from a lengthy offseason holdout.

Dortch spends a team-high 48% of his snaps lined up in the slot and ranks in the Top 12 among slot receivers in catch rate, target rate, yards per route run, and deep-target rate. He faces the Detroit Lions, whose run defense is very good, which could skew this game towards more passing, but the Lions' slot coverage has been BAD, posting the 11th-worst explosive pass play rate and fifth-highest target rate. Lining up in the slot, Cooper Kupp caught 11/14 targets for 94 yards in Week 1, while Chris Godwin went 6/7 for 116 yards in Week 2. I'm not saying Dortch is on the level of those stars, but he's facing a yardage total roughly 2-3x lower.

It's time for the MVP to take over. The Ravens' offense can move the ball vs. Dallas after posting the No. 3 offensive success rate, which includes a game vs. an elite K.C. defense. If things get tight, look for the reigning MVP to take the game — and the Ravens' winless record — into his own hands. This should be an elite effort from Jackson who is already leading all QBs in total yards and rushing yards to begin the year. This is a big price. For comparison, Josh Allen is being priced as short as -135. I think quarterbacks with Jackson's skillset should not be priced higher than +150. I mean, Anthony Richardson is priced between -105 and +120.  No team has allowed more rushing TDs than the Boys, who have given up five scores — including four to the Saints last week.

Patrick Mahomes is an undeniably all-time great downfield passer, but those kinds of passes naturally lend to an elevated risk of turnovers. In his 98 regular season games with the Kansas City Chiefs, Mahomes has thrown an interception in 50 of them (51%). But that rate has been even worse as of late. He has three in just two games this year, and threw one in 12 of his 16 games last year (75%). In years past this prop used to be around even money for both sides, and this year his market has seemingly corrected a bit. But there is still some meat left on the bone.