Saul Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo takes place this evening at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with the undisputed super middleweight championship on the line.
This premier boxing event pits Alvarez up against undisputed junior middleweight champion Charlo, who is seeking a legacy-altering victory against boxing’s biggest star.
Boxing odds, courtesy of our partners at Sports Interaction, tab Alvarez as the favorite at -387 while Charlo is a +288 underdog.
Here are my free picks for the Alvarez vs. Charlo title fight from Las Vegas.
Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo odds
| Method of victory | Canelo Alvarez | Jermell Charlo |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -375 | +279 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +260 | +1,100 |
| Win by points or decision | -139 | +500 |
| Draw | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction as of September 26, 2023.
Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo betting predictions
Picks made on September 30. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo betting preview
Canelo Alvarez (59-2-2, 39 KO) dropped down to super middleweight after failing to unseat light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol and has won back-to-back decisions against Golovkin and John Ryder since the loss. “Canelo” remains one of boxing’s best fighters, though doubts linger about the Mexican marvel’s hunger to compete at 33 years old and over 70 professional fights.
Jermell Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KO) became the undisputed junior middleweight champion in May 2022 after knocking out Castano in the 10th round of their rematch. After recovering from a hand injury, Charlo opted to move up two weight divisions to challenge Alvarez. This is the biggest fight of Charlo’s career by far, and “Iron Man” physically matches up well with Alvarez being taller and longer than the undisputed super middleweight champion.
Both Alvarez and Charlo are methodical operators, and rely more on their wits than will. That said, Alvarez’s resume is littered with Hall of Fame talent and generational greats, Charlo’s is more of a sampler of the current era.
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Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Alvarez moneyline
TIn boxing, it’s often said that size matters. In this case, size matters, but not as much. Charlo is jumping up two weight divisions for the opportunity to face Alvarez for a shot at immortality, but the biggest difference between these two boxers at the end of their primes is more skill than size. While both fighters have proved their worth as undisputed champions, the quality of opponents Alvarez has faced dwarfs Charlo’s, with Alvarez’s toughest foils being Gennadiy Golovkin and Dmitry Bivol and Charlo struggling against Tony Harrison and Brian Castano. These two situations are not alike.
Alvarez’s superior offensive arsenal, footwork, feints, and upper body movement should give Charlo fits. He won’t be able to get in synch with Alvarez’s rhythm, meaning Charlo will fail to land anything of substance. Taken out of his element and awkwardly trying to create offense, Charlo will get picked off by Alvarez’s jabs and body shots.
Charlo often struggles to create offense organically. He is closer to a pure counter-puncher than a boxer-puncher, scoring his biggest wins against an oncoming attacker instead of hunting down his prey. When fighters tend to fight at a measured pace like Harrison and Castano did in their first fights with Charlo, Charlo cannot develop a rhythm and doesn’t change his approach.
This fight should serve as a return to form for Alvarez, who has taken some unnecessary flak after his previous two performances. Charlo will have his moments early, but Alvarez will prove to be more than he can handle.
Prediction: Alvarez moneyline (-375 at Sports Interaction)
Best Bet: Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision (-139)
One thing that has been a consistent weakness for Charlo is his inability to disrupt fighters with good footwork. Alvarez’s footwork and overall movement make him difficult to hit cleanly or pin down. As Charlo misfires repeatedly as Alvarez slithers in and out of range, he’ll be ripe for a big counter or body shot.
Neither fighter has been hurt badly throughout their careers; their chins are certified sturdy.
Despite Charlo’s deceptive power, his blows won’t land with as much authority as Alvarez’s. Alvarez will likely be the more active fighter as well, ensuring he’ll have more scoring opportunities than the counter-minded Charlo.
When considering their durability and top-notch defensive talents, this fight is going to the cards.
The best bet is that Alvarez wins by decision.
Prediction: Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision (-139 at Sports Interaction)
