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Dr. Strangelove's 2023-24 Bowls

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phancard

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Joined: Nov, 2005

Posts: 3670

Posted: Dec. 24, 2023 - 4:39 PM ET #101

Nice Bowl Records, Keep it up Bud!!

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PUSSYGALORE333

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Posts: 6458

Posted: Dec. 25, 2023 - 12:09 AM ET #102

an_eek2 been missing this thread....error..... goodthread looks 5-1 running dogs and 4-1 other for 9-2 record..i see an_popcorn

goldfinger 1964

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DrStrangelove

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Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 25, 2023 - 12:48 PM ET #103

Bowling Green will be the next Running Dog coming up tomorrow. Before this game there are a few things I wanted to relay to you guys about trends involving running dogs who are G5 teams going up against favored Power 5 opponents. Over the last 17 years that we've been doing this, we've found that the running dogs haven't done nearly as well with G5 vs a P5. I think the reasons are pretty obvious. But it's also about how they set the lines for these games. The running dogs have obviously done better when we've gotten bigger spreads. But that's not the case with Minnesota/BG. The line opened at +6 where I got it. But has now been bet down to 3/3.5. "Row your boat" Fleck does well in these bowls (won 6 in a row), and I'm sure he still remembers that game with BG a couple years ago when they beat Minny as 30 point dogs. So you have to consider that too. This is his worst team if you don't count the covid year. But you still have to keep in mind the level of football they play with just a FG line. With the loss of line value, if I was playing the game now, I would probably be looking at the over or team total.

When I list my running dogs every year, no situational handicapping goes into my list. I just wanted to make that clear. The running dogs are ALL about the numbers, and how one team (on paper) is a probably going to outrush the other, making them a PRD (probable running dog). It takes the handicapping part out of the equation, but I still have my opinions about these teams and games. There are two bowl games involving G5 vs P5 teams. Bowling Green/Minny and Tulane/Va Tech. With Tulane we're getting a better line than BG. But the Green Wave is pretty much operating with a skeleton crew of players/coaches. I actually waitied posting this line thinking I was being smart and was going to catch a much better line. It opened at around Va Tech -5.5 and I jumped in when it got to Tulane +8.5. But since then it has jumped another 2 points to +10.5. So there goes that plan. On that game you just have to ask yourself, "how many is too many points?" Will Tulane put up a fight or will they fold like a cheap lawn chair if they get behind? Your guess is as good as mine. I sorta lean the under in that game, but I hate these low bowl totals. It would probably have to jump up to 45 before I would even consider it...Good luck!

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Bowling Green will be the next Running Dog coming up tomorrow. Before this game there are a few things I wanted to relay to you guys about trends involving running dogs who are G5 teams going up against favored Power 5 opponents. Over the last 17 years that we've been doing this, we've found that the running dogs haven't done nearly as well with G5 vs a P5. I think the reasons are pretty obvious. But it's also about how they set the lines for these games. The running dogs have obviously done better when we've gotten bigger spreads. But that's not the case with Minnesota/BG. The line opened at +6 where I got it. But has now been bet down to 3/3.5. "Row your boat" Fleck does well in these bowls (won 6 in a row), and I'm sure he still remembers that game with BG a couple years ago when they beat Minny as 30 point dogs. So you have to consider that too. This is his worst team if you don't count the covid year. But you still have to keep in mind the level of football they play with just a FG line. With the loss of line value, if I was playing the game now, I would probably be looking at the over or team total.

When I list my running dogs every year, no situational handicapping goes into my list. I just wanted to make that clear. The running dogs are ALL about the numbers, and how one team (on paper) is a probably going to outrush the other, making them a PRD (probable running dog). It takes the handicapping part out of the equation, but I still have my opinions about these teams and games. There are two bowl games involving G5 vs P5 teams. Bowling Green/Minny and Tulane/Va Tech. With Tulane we're getting a better line than BG. But the Green Wave is pretty much operating with a skeleton crew of players/coaches. I actually waitied posting this line thinking I was being smart and was going to catch a much better line. It opened at around Va Tech -5.5 and I jumped in when it got to Tulane +8.5. But since then it has jumped another 2 points to +10.5. So there goes that plan. On that game you just have to ask yourself, "how many is too many points?" Will Tulane put up a fight or will they fold like a cheap lawn chair if they get behind? Your guess is as good as mine. I sorta lean the under in that game, but I hate these low bowl totals. It would probably have to jump up to 45 before I would even consider it...Good luck!

PUSSYGALORE333

Captain

Joined: Jul, 2023

Posts: 6458

Posted: Dec. 25, 2023 - 11:54 PM ET #104

been several years but i remember the running dog thing.....saw your post early but not sure you posted plays and never got back to see em maybe......anyway good luck rest of the games....and for posting your thoughts going forward... peace_5

goldfinger 1964

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PUSSYGALORE333

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Joined: Jul, 2023

Posts: 6458

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:28 AM ET #105

sorry to take up space.... an_brick i see you posted your running dogs very early ..... confused

goldfinger 1964

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MrFreedo

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Joined: May, 2017

Posts: 4417

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:37 AM ET #106

Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:

Bowling Green will be the next Running Dog coming up tomorrow. Before this game there are a few things I wanted to relay to you guys about trends involving running dogs who are G5 teams going up against favored Power 5 opponents. Over the last 17 years that we've been doing this, we've found that the running dogs haven't done nearly as well with G5 vs a P5. I think the reasons are pretty obvious. But it's also about how they set the lines for these games. The running dogs have obviously done better when we've gotten bigger spreads. But that's not the case with Minnesota/BG. The line opened at +6 where I got it. But has now been bet down to 3/3.5. "Row your boat" Fleck does well in these bowls (won 6 in a row), and I'm sure he still remembers that game with BG a couple years ago when they beat Minny as 30 point dogs. So you have to consider that too. This is his worst team if you don't count the covid year. But you still have to keep in mind the level of football they play with just a FG line. With the loss of line value, if I was playing the game now, I would probably be looking at the over or team total. When I list my running dogs every year, no situational handicapping goes into my list. I just wanted to make that clear. The running dogs are ALL about the numbers, and how one team (on paper) is a probably going to outrush the other, making them a PRD (probable running dog). It takes the handicapping part out of the equation, but I still have my opinions about these teams and games. There are two bowl games involving G5 vs P5 teams. Bowling Green/Minny and Tulane/Va Tech. With Tulane we're getting a better line than BG. But the Green Wave is pretty much operating with a skeleton crew of players/coaches. I actually waitied posting this line thinking I was being smart and was going to catch a much better line. It opened at around Va Tech -5.5 and I jumped in when it got to Tulane +8.5. But since then it has jumped another 2 points to +10.5. So there goes that plan. On that game you just have to ask yourself, "how many is too many points?" Will Tulane put up a fight or will they fold like a cheap lawn chair if they get behind? Your guess is as good as mine. I sorta lean the under in that game, but I hate these low bowl totals. It would probably have to jump up to 45 before I would even consider it...Good luck!

Great analysis. I got the hell out of this game yesterday. If BG wins so be it, but I can’t go against Fleck here. Even though they have just 5 wins on the season, one may think not motivated, but I keep thinking they just come out and beat the crap out of BG. BOL this week. clover

Play the game. Don’t let the game play you.

0

Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:

Bowling Green will be the next Running Dog coming up tomorrow. Before this game there are a few things I wanted to relay to you guys about trends involving running dogs who are G5 teams going up against favored Power 5 opponents. Over the last 17 years that we've been doing this, we've found that the running dogs haven't done nearly as well with G5 vs a P5. I think the reasons are pretty obvious. But it's also about how they set the lines for these games. The running dogs have obviously done better when we've gotten bigger spreads. But that's not the case with Minnesota/BG. The line opened at +6 where I got it. But has now been bet down to 3/3.5. "Row your boat" Fleck does well in these bowls (won 6 in a row), and I'm sure he still remembers that game with BG a couple years ago when they beat Minny as 30 point dogs. So you have to consider that too. This is his worst team if you don't count the covid year. But you still have to keep in mind the level of football they play with just a FG line. With the loss of line value, if I was playing the game now, I would probably be looking at the over or team total. When I list my running dogs every year, no situational handicapping goes into my list. I just wanted to make that clear. The running dogs are ALL about the numbers, and how one team (on paper) is a probably going to outrush the other, making them a PRD (probable running dog). It takes the handicapping part out of the equation, but I still have my opinions about these teams and games. There are two bowl games involving G5 vs P5 teams. Bowling Green/Minny and Tulane/Va Tech. With Tulane we're getting a better line than BG. But the Green Wave is pretty much operating with a skeleton crew of players/coaches. I actually waitied posting this line thinking I was being smart and was going to catch a much better line. It opened at around Va Tech -5.5 and I jumped in when it got to Tulane +8.5. But since then it has jumped another 2 points to +10.5. So there goes that plan. On that game you just have to ask yourself, "how many is too many points?" Will Tulane put up a fight or will they fold like a cheap lawn chair if they get behind? Your guess is as good as mine. I sorta lean the under in that game, but I hate these low bowl totals. It would probably have to jump up to 45 before I would even consider it...Good luck!

Great analysis. I got the hell out of this game yesterday. If BG wins so be it, but I can’t go against Fleck here. Even though they have just 5 wins on the season, one may think not motivated, but I keep thinking they just come out and beat the crap out of BG. BOL this week. clover

movinlinesG

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2023

Posts: 1033

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 1:44 AM ET #107

Doctor might I ask, how strange is your love?

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Ramanujan

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2016

Posts: 3110

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 2:33 AM ET #108

Fucking awesome thread

NCAAFB on covers may have regressed but it’s still way above most of the others (NHL excepted)

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Zeus4par

Captain

Joined: Jul, 2021

Posts: 5105

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 4:13 AM ET #109

Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:

Bowling Green will be the next Running Dog coming up tomorrow. Before this game there are a few things I wanted to relay to you guys about trends involving running dogs who are G5 teams going up against favored Power 5 opponents. Over the last 17 years that we've been doing this, we've found that the running dogs haven't done nearly as well with G5 vs a P5. I think the reasons are pretty obvious. But it's also about how they set the lines for these games. The running dogs have obviously done better when we've gotten bigger spreads. But that's not the case with Minnesota/BG. The line opened at +6 where I got it. But has now been bet down to 3/3.5. "Row your boat" Fleck does well in these bowls (won 6 in a row), and I'm sure he still remembers that game with BG a couple years ago when they beat Minny as 30 point dogs. So you have to consider that too. This is his worst team if you don't count the covid year. But you still have to keep in mind the level of football they play with just a FG line. With the loss of line value, if I was playing the game now, I would probably be looking at the over or team total. When I list my running dogs every year, no situational handicapping goes into my list. I just wanted to make that clear. The running dogs are ALL about the numbers, and how one team (on paper) is a probably going to outrush the other, making them a PRD (probable running dog). It takes the handicapping part out of the equation, but I still have my opinions about these teams and games. There are two bowl games involving G5 vs P5 teams. Bowling Green/Minny and Tulane/Va Tech. With Tulane we're getting a better line than BG. But the Green Wave is pretty much operating with a skeleton crew of players/coaches. I actually waitied posting this line thinking I was being smart and was going to catch a much better line. It opened at around Va Tech -5.5 and I jumped in when it got to Tulane +8.5. But since then it has jumped another 2 points to +10.5. So there goes that plan. On that game you just have to ask yourself, "how many is too many points?" Will Tulane put up a fight or will they fold like a cheap lawn chair if they get behind? Your guess is as good as mine. I sorta lean the under in that game, but I hate these low bowl totals. It would probably have to jump up to 45 before I would even consider it...Good luck!

an_worship

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Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:

Bowling Green will be the next Running Dog coming up tomorrow. Before this game there are a few things I wanted to relay to you guys about trends involving running dogs who are G5 teams going up against favored Power 5 opponents. Over the last 17 years that we've been doing this, we've found that the running dogs haven't done nearly as well with G5 vs a P5. I think the reasons are pretty obvious. But it's also about how they set the lines for these games. The running dogs have obviously done better when we've gotten bigger spreads. But that's not the case with Minnesota/BG. The line opened at +6 where I got it. But has now been bet down to 3/3.5. "Row your boat" Fleck does well in these bowls (won 6 in a row), and I'm sure he still remembers that game with BG a couple years ago when they beat Minny as 30 point dogs. So you have to consider that too. This is his worst team if you don't count the covid year. But you still have to keep in mind the level of football they play with just a FG line. With the loss of line value, if I was playing the game now, I would probably be looking at the over or team total. When I list my running dogs every year, no situational handicapping goes into my list. I just wanted to make that clear. The running dogs are ALL about the numbers, and how one team (on paper) is a probably going to outrush the other, making them a PRD (probable running dog). It takes the handicapping part out of the equation, but I still have my opinions about these teams and games. There are two bowl games involving G5 vs P5 teams. Bowling Green/Minny and Tulane/Va Tech. With Tulane we're getting a better line than BG. But the Green Wave is pretty much operating with a skeleton crew of players/coaches. I actually waitied posting this line thinking I was being smart and was going to catch a much better line. It opened at around Va Tech -5.5 and I jumped in when it got to Tulane +8.5. But since then it has jumped another 2 points to +10.5. So there goes that plan. On that game you just have to ask yourself, "how many is too many points?" Will Tulane put up a fight or will they fold like a cheap lawn chair if they get behind? Your guess is as good as mine. I sorta lean the under in that game, but I hate these low bowl totals. It would probably have to jump up to 45 before I would even consider it...Good luck!

an_worship

DrStrangelove

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:11 PM ET #110

Quote Originally Posted by MrFreedo:

Great analysis. I got the hell out of this game yesterday. If BG wins so be it, but I can’t go against Fleck here. Even though they have just 5 wins on the season, one may think not motivated, but I keep thinking they just come out and beat the crap out of BG. BOL this week.

I wouldn't be surprised if both teams are pretty motivated for this one. It doesn't make a lot of sense, but being indoors I have a feeling this could be a more entertaining game than expected. Minny will be starting a 3rd string QB, but he is a 5th year senior who knows the system well. And considering how Minny's season has gone, probably won't be a downgrade from the other two QB's. The Golphers weakness is mostly their pass defense, so I think Connor Bazelak can probably have a little success against them. Like I said, I kind of like the over in this one. Well, I DID like the over when it was 39. Now it's crossed some key numbers at 42.5, so I would hesitate to play it now. Good luck. Hopefully it hits the middle somewhere and we can both win.

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DrStrangelove

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Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:16 PM ET #111

Rice/Texas St over 59

My number is in the 65-71 range with both teams scoring in the 30's.

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DrStrangelove

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Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:35 PM ET #112

@phancard

@PUSSYGALORE333

@Ramanujan

@Zeus4par

Good luck guys peace_5

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insatiable

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 35986

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:51 PM ET #113

@DrStrangelove

clover an_cheers

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DrStrangelove

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Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 10:25 PM ET #114

Another damn PUSH with the running dogs. I don't believe I've ever had two in one bowl season. I thought I was going to get another push tonight with my Rice/Tex St. 59. Glad the Tex St RB broke that 40 yarder or else they would have probably run out the clock. I didn't play Kansas/UNLV. I couldn't really get a good feel for that game. And the Bean possibly not playing rumors. He looks pretty good for having the flu.

The Running Dogs

Jax State +1.5

Miami, Ohio +4.5

Old Dominion +3 (Push)

Northern Illinois +1.5

Bowling Green +6 (Push)

Kentucky +7

Cal +3.5

Georgia St +1.5

Toledo +3

Tulane +8.5

Ohio +3

Other Plays

Texas -4

Ohio St/Mizzou under 49

UCLA -2

Air Force +3

Jax St/ULL under 30 1H

NMST -0.5 2H

USF +3

Texas St/Rice over 59

1

KeyMaster

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 4171

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 8:29 AM ET #115

Looking very solid, Nice work. Tulane looks difficult to bet on imo but 8.5 is a lot of points.......I may pass on that one.

an_cheers

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DrStrangelove

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Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 1:53 PM ET #116

Quote Originally Posted by KeyMaster:

Looking very solid, Nice work. Tulane looks difficult to bet on imo but 8.5 is a lot of points.......I may pass on that one.

I think Tulane is toast today. We can't control the opt outs and coaches..

1

MrFreedo

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Joined: May, 2017

Posts: 4417

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 2:55 PM ET #117

Is USC a running dog today?

Can’t remember if the running dog is based off of the better run defense or just the dog with better running stats?

I see Tulane running all over VT early with no problem

Play the game. Don’t let the game play you.

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DrStrangelove

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 3:28 PM ET #118

Quote Originally Posted by MrFreedo:

Is USC a running dog today? Can’t remember if the running dog is based off of the better run defense or just the dog with better running stats? I see Tulane running all over VT early with no problem

I'm a little surprised with Tulane. But that's why they play these games. USC isn't the running dog. In fact Louisville is the much better rushing team both on offense and their rush defense. But I still kind of like the Trojans. Any team who has played a tough schedule and averages 470 yards on offense and is a touchdown dog is always a dangerous team. Good luck!

2

DrStrangelove

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 4:42 PM ET #119

North Carolina +6

1

fubah2

Legend

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 31209

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 4:45 PM ET #120

Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:

Another damn PUSH with the running dogs. I don't believe I've ever had two in one bowl season. I thought I was going to get another push tonight with my Rice/Tex St. 59. Glad the Tex St RB broke that 40 yarder or else they would have probably run out the clock. I didn't play Kansas/UNLV. I couldn't really get a good feel for that game. And the Bean possibly not playing rumors. He looks pretty good for having the flu. The Running Dogs Jax State +1.5 Miami, Ohio +4.5 Old Dominion +3 (Push) Northern Illinois +1.5 Bowling Green +6 (Push) Kentucky +7 Cal +3.5 Georgia St +1.5 Toledo +3 Tulane +8.5 Ohio +3 Other Plays Texas -4 Ohio St/Mizzou under 49 UCLA -2 Air Force +3 Jax St/ULL under 30 1H NMST -0.5 2H USF +3 Texas St/Rice over 59

GREAT WORK! an_cheers

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DrStrangelove

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 4:54 PM ET #121

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

GREAT WORK!

Looks like those opt outs are taking a toll on a thin Tulane team.

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boro33

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 2261

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 5:13 PM ET #122

Thanks for the work and gl. an_cheers

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DrStrangelove

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 7:39 PM ET #123

@boro33

an_cheers

0

DrStrangelove

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 3494

Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 7:40 PM ET #124

USC/Louisville under 59

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boro33

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 2261

Posted: Dec. 29, 2023 - 10:20 AM ET #125

Let’s get this running dog today.

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Dr. Strangelove's 2023-24 Bowls

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