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NBA PLAYOFFS......................................................2019

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by SPark1:

The claw peace_5

Spurs!

I like the GS play. Road favored by 8 or more is a high percentage ats wise from what I remember. 


 
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Posted: #77

Hey guys, in a weird betting spot so had to get some second opinions. 

My bettor accidentally put up the Bucks at 21:1 instead of 1:1 and I managed to jump on before they realised. 

Now I have a cash out option at 9.4x my stake. I usually would never consider but this seems like a spot where it could be considered? Or just resist and let it ride? Thanks! 

 
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Posted: #78
1-0 ATS, won 2 units
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Spurs -3 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units

we'll wait-out the line , if it drops to 2.5 then we'd have a play using my lines


GAME 6...............Warriors -9 (-115) over Clippers --- 3.45 units to win 3 units



pending play........................Warriors -9 (-115) over Clippers 3.45 units


Warriors in a 2cd close-out game, top teams that finish 1st or 2cd in our PR's and have the common denominators of past champs which the Warriors do, are strong plays to win and cover a 2cd close-out game unless they are playing another top team.

Big mismatch here in this series, Warriors will roll tonight.
 
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Posted: #80
playoffs to date...............................................

games ---11-9 , won 4.38 units
totals ---1-2, lost 2.4
ML --- 3-1 won 2.68
parlays --- 2-2, won 5.56 units

total units won 10.22 units


leans 5-6.


series winners still pending  with Spurs over Nuggets

we have 1 series winner with Blazers , need Spurs in game 7 to finish winning units or we finish losing a small amount.


we didn't set the world on fire but if we can just keep cranking out winning units each round regardless of how many we will be in good shape.

we'll stay with picking and choosing better spots for each play and pass when we need to. 
 
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Posted: #81
GAME 7....................................

MY LINES............................

Nuggets -4.36 over Spurs

based on history  the series has played out more to the home team in the series winning the series.

when the road team wins the series they almost always need to hold home court and steal 1 game on the road, for tough to get 2 on the road without being a very strong team which Spurs are not.

my lines takes Spurs +5.5 at this point but we will pass on the game.

alot of talk about experience of Spurs or lack of by Nuggets, I don't think experience plays as big a role as many others do, I think skill and ability play a far, far bigger role.

Nuggets and Spurs are tied not because of experience but because they are very evenly matched teams in skill and ability.
 
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Posted: #82
FG% has the highest correlation to victory in the NBA AND THE HIGHEST PREDICTIVE VALUE looking forward for any single stat.

Shooting efficiency has the highest correlation and predictive value period, when you give credit for 3 pt shot and FT's.

Spurs are better then the Nuggets in both these areas, that's why the series is tied.

Nuggets much better in rebounding which does count and bumps the Nuggets slightly, but only slightly better then the Spurs.

Year after year after year we post teams with little to no experience that do very, very well in playoffs in different sports , and they do it because of skill and ability

Here is a saying I have used many times and is supported by history......................


When the more experienced team is the better team they win
When the more experienced team is no longer the better team they no longer win

remember this, a team can only win or be successful getting deep into playoffs with no experience 1 time, after that they automatically have experience but they can do it many times with experience. 

that is why many experts get confused about experience, look at Warriors. Perfect example.


Warriors were the best team according to about any measure of advanced meterics in 2015 , they had little to no experience of winning titles or getting deep into the playoffs in 2015.


Warriors lost in the 1st round the year before in 2014 and in the 2cd round 2 years prior and did not even make the playoffs 3 years prior.

That group of players won 1 series before winning the title, that is it.

Warriors can only win the title 1 time with no experience, but they can get to the finals 3 additional times with experience, they can win 2 additional titles with experience.

They can not win 2 additional titles with no experience, can only be done once .

When the Warriors won their 1st title did they need experience ?

Why then do they need experience  to win the 2cd and 3rd, why is the 2cd and 3rd title BECAUSE OF EXPERIENCE ,  makes no sense at all.

They did not need experience the 1st title but now all of a sudden the 2cd and 3rd title are because of experience ?

How is that even logical ?

They won because of skill and ability, plain and simple, has little to do with experience.


That is not to say experience has no value, however, history and advanced meterics supports experience is not close to as big a difference maker as experts try to make it out to be.


You can use this principle in other areas, not just winning titles.

I would not count Nuggets out because they have no experience.

But here in this spot the skill and ability of both teams is very close and evenly matched so  we will not make a play only because of this.

But we would not at all be surprised if Nuggets are the ones displaying the more experienced look and the Spurs fold under the game 7 lights.


 
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Posted: #83
Warriors -10 over Clips --- 1.1 units

we add 1 additional unit


Warriors/Clips OVER --- 1.1 units
Warriors TT OVER 120.5 (-115) --- 1.15 units
 
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Posted: #84
"Here is a saying I have used many times and is supported by history......................

When the more experienced team is the better team they win
When the more experienced team is no longer the better team they no longer win"

Sorry if you came up with it but that's a really stupid saying. It literally reduces to -- The better team wins. Which is in no way profound.






 
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Posted: #85
Claw, you've finally made it...ya got yourself some haters.  

Congratulations, you're now a covers legend!
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by The_NBA:

"Here is a saying I have used many times and is supported by history......................

When the more experienced team is the better team they win
When the more experienced team is no longer the better team they no longer win"

Sorry if you came up with it but that's a really stupid saying. It literally reduces to -- The better team wins. Which is in no way profound.









Your correct, one could say  the better team wins.

However, the entire point you missed is when taken in the context of when experts try to tell you the more experienced team won as though it was the experience that helped them win, when it was far more being the better team is why they won.

Or when people say Spurs should win because of experience, Nuggets will be tight and may not play well, and then Spurs do win and people actually believe it was because of experience when the reality is the 2 teams are evenly maTCHED IN A series either could win.



There-by confusing many people into believing experience is so much important when the reality is being the better team is far more important.

To just say the better team wins does not tell you anything about what I just said.
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by satchmo76:

Claw, you've finally made it...ya got yourself some haters.  

Congratulations, you're now a covers legend!


........good stuff....
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Warriors -10 over Clips --- 1.1 units

we add 1 additional unit


Warriors/Clips OVER --- 1.1 units
Warriors TT OVER 120.5 (-115) --- 1.15 units

Good to see you have added more units...

Let's get this...I think 1st qtr will determine how warriors will play
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:


Good to see you have added more units...

Let's get this...I think 1st qtr will determine how warriors will play

Warriors rolling at the half by 19. Should hang on for the ATS win.
 
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Posted: #90
Warriors up 24 to start the 4th. We got 14 pts to work with and still get the cover.hopefully we lock down the overs as well

 
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Posted: #91

Media and bookies are trying to sell this “play off experience” shit to the square bettors extra hard this year and thats because they “fear the deer” ?? bucks are coming for the title and books dont like it 

 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by Circus_Bettor:

Yes, top strong teams like Warriors are very strong plays in a 2cd close-out game unless their opp happened to be a top team as well, which Clips definately are not.

 

Hate to be a grammar-na.zi, but please use "2nd" not "2cd"... "happens" not "happened" ...."definitely" not "definately."

 

Making the playoffs should by definition be a "top team," but please enlighten me as to who qualifies as a "top team."

 

I see the Warriors are in a special class you have designated called "top strong." 

 

new_rolling_eyes



Thought I'd just let the Warriors do aallll the talking for me, now you know what a top team looks like and plays like in a 2cd close-out game.

Any more questions ?
 
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Posted: #93
games --- 1-0 ATS, won 4 units

totals 2-0, won 2 units

we got the Warriors TT with plenty of time to spare and the over easily and the game, didn't need to sweat anything out down to the final 2 or 3 possesions, that's always extra nice.......................


Clips did pull within 14 and 13 a couple of times in 4th but each time the Warriors just ramped it up and took over the game.


people will always over-react to games ands things that happen in games, such as Clips coming back from 31 down , thinking if they did it once they'll do it again, that's gambler thinking, not logical thinking.

The mathmatical odds to come back down 31 or 24 are very, very low, just because a team beats those low odds does not in anyway give them a better chance to do it again, the low odds stay the same, very, very low.

But gamblers like to gamble and hang their hats on anything they can find that might lead to a high payout and one they can convince themselves they can bet with confidence.

These are the truest of true gamblers who just gamble with no real knowledge of math or sports betting.

The real contenders, the championship level teams  don't fail very often in a 2cd close-out game. Not only do they win but they cover at a high rate in those wins.

This is where advanced meterics once again comes into play to help us identify  those teams and once we know who they are we can they find spots where they excel.

Thus far we had at least 4 plays on them which happen to be our largest plays of playoffs and we are 4-0 ATS in those spots.
 
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Posted: #94
MY LINES..................................sat


Nuggets -4.36 over Spurs

Raptors -6.13 over 76ers


Raps off 2 ATS wins and big wins but not overly big wins.

76ers off 4 ATS and big wins as well but not overly big wins as in 25 pt or more blowout wins. But they do have 2 wins over 20 pts .


in this spot I'd fade the 76ers coming off 4 ATS wins 


Raptors -6.5 over 76ers --- 1.1 unit


we'll pass on Nuggets/Spurs game as my lines points to Spurs but history points to Nuggets and the fact.... Nuggets are so good at home and Spurs are  not so good on the road.


If Blazers had their injured player we'd take Blazers to beat either team but now looks like Kanter might be out as well.
 
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Posted: #95
LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS.................................

OUR TEAM IN 1ST ROUND WAS THE BUCKS IN ALL 5 STAT BATTLES.

Blindly backing the Bucks in every game ..............4-0 ATS

we backed them twice, went 2-0 ATS then went against them in the right spot although they did cover the game we won 1st half on both line and ML and we won with Pistons in 1st half ML parlay.

WE DID ALL RIGHT.

ON to the 2cd round.................................
 
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Posted: #96
2cd round Largest Mismatch Teams .......................................


ave of all 5 key stat battles...............................

Warriors by 3.78 over Rockets
Bucks by 2.65 over Celtics
Raptors by .88 over 76ers


this based on all 82 games, we don't know how good Rockets are yet as to many injuries could have affected their rating. We tread lightly and wait- out select spots.


based on each individual stat battle...................Bucks win 2 as largest

Warriors win 2 and Raptors win the other.

Raptors win the shooting efficiency very key stat battle as the largest mismatch this round.


we could blindly back both Bucks and Raptors in every game this round, this method almost always produces a winning record ATS.

We could also make a case for the Warriors but ....will likely try and pick better spots.


Bucks in a regression spot so we will pass on playing the Bucks in game 1 and take small action on Celtics.


Raptors in a much better spot so we add a unit to out play............


Raptors -6.5 over 76ers --- 1.1 units
 
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Posted: #97
MY LINES ..............................sun


Bucks -9.46 over Celtics

my lines has a play on Bucks but with Bucks in a regression spot we'll grab the Celtics game1........................

Celtics +7.5 over Bucks --- 2.2 units
Celtics +4.5 1st half --- 1.1 unit

possible SU win could be coming, su wins are somewhat  common in this spot. pretty much every year if get 1 or 2 as fairly large dogs.

and they usually are VS a 1 or 2  seed.

we did get The Pistons 1st half as a 7 point dog.


if the Celtics do win SU , oh my, I can see the over-reaction already.

Don't fall into that trap, a regression is almost certainly coming for the Bucks, very normal, just the way things go.

We'll then be playing the Bucks on the series odds if Celtics win either game 1 or game 2 SU and WE will have another good spot down the road for our top team with a bigger play.

just some early thoughts on this series and the spot..
 
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Posted: #98
I would look for both Bucks and Raps to advance.

Depending on Curry, would like the Warriors to advance as well, but his ankle didn't look so good last night. If he isn't to bad I think Warriors advance.

Problem is we may not know that answer untill the series gets going and we get 1, 2 or 3 games in, that makes it to tough to call the series winner at this point.

To much uncertainty in the Warriors/Rockets series, no point in trying to quess.
 
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Posted: #99
1-0 ATS, won 2 units

our largest mismatch teams go to 5-0 ATS if you had just blindly backed them.

Raps being the largest mismatch in shooting efficiency and it sure showed last night.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

SERIES WINNERS....................................

PACERS +380 over Celtics ...... 1 unit to win 3.8
Spurs +210 over Nuggets ............1 unit to win 2.1
Blazers +180 over OKC ........1 UNIT TO WIN 1.8
Jazz +260 over Rockets .......1 unit to win 2.6

1st round....................................................................


series winners --- 1-3, lost 1.2 units


son of a gun, Spurs looked like for about a minute they might come back and take game 7.

this game rated out about even and it came down to the wire to decide the winner.

at the end of the day the more experienced team wilted under the game 7 lights and made huge mistakes not fouling. 

With no other option except going home Spurs 100% have to foul there. no choice . regardless how low % the situation might be, it is the only choice.

remember Pacers/Celtics game 2 ? 

Pacers down 6 , Celtics inbounding the ball and Pacers foul immediately with 5.7 seconds on the clock, virtually no shot at that point of winning  but hey, has to be done even if the odds are only 1%

IF You still have some chance you take it.

For those who never saw Larry Bird play he feasted on guys who did not pay attention to game situations and the little things and there are many of those type guys in the league.

He once stole a playoff game VS Pistons  when the Pistons thought they won the game and all they needed was to inbound the ball with seconds left but the very crafty Bird  LINGERING IN THE AREA  paying attention scoops in to steal the inbound pass when the Pistons lazily throw the pass in to what appeared an open player , and the rest was history and gets replayed many times since.

Some players have what it takes to pay attention others don't.
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