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NBA PLAYOFFS......................................................2019

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Posted: #201
Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:

Good stuff Claw, glad to see you doing so well  this post-season. Can I ask, are these PR rankings something you have created using data/stats you obtain through various websites? I am a big fan of stats/data and especially Jeff Sagarin.



yes
 
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Posted: #202
Blazers -3.5 over Nuggets --- 2.2 units
 
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Posted: #203
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Blazers -3.5 over Nuggets --- 2.2 units

BOL tonight claw.... Love your post and read them everyday.
 
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Posted: #204
Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:


BOL tonight claw.... Love your post and read them everyday.




 
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Posted: #205
games 1-1 ATS, lost .2 units

son of a gun Raps let us down, but hey, wasn't the best spot for them but the Blazers did us well so as long as we hang even, good deal.
 
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Posted: #206
MY LINES...............................game 6 (fri)

Warriors -.8 over Rockets

obviously not a good line, this game should be very interesting. I don't have a clue what will happen but we must remember the Warriors were a very good team before Durant and if there are any issues on the team as has been reported then I suspect the Warriors will be out to prove something here.

Problem is their bench has been bad, and their death line-up has not been the dominating line-up it was in the past. That could be because Durant takes the team out of the motion offense and uses to much isolation game.

Maybe the Warriors get back to their old selves before Durant, basketball is a game of making shots, if your shots go in any team can win. 

Curry and Klay could light it up from 3 pt-land , they have not played all that well up to now and could have a regression to playing better then their averages. 


We pass on this game, no point in making any plays with too many unknowns.

But I can't wait to see what happens in this game, really looking forward to it.
 
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Posted: #207
Rockets are who we thought they were................not a championship calibre team........................

Crazy how many fell hook line and sinker for Rockets winning big. The pre-game panel, ex-nba stars all did as well as many on the site.

Curry is the player who stirs the drink, Durant is added piece that makes the team virtually unbeatable.

Harden for as great as he is, is not a great 3 pt shooter (36.8%), shoots only slightly above league ave.

Harden has never once shot above 40% on 3's, Curry has never once shot below 40% nor has Klay, not many players in history can make that statement.

Ray Allen can't nor can Reggie Miller. In fact, neither even came close to such great consistent shooting.

Rockets try to create math advantages taking many, many 3's we've talked about this many times over the years , unless you have the greatest 3 pt shooter in history and another great 3 pt shooter it ain't going to work.

Can't win titles, 

The Bucks if they win the title will set the record for taking the highest % of all shots as 3's, they don't have great 3 pt shooters but the do have the ultimate 2 pt shooting weapon in the Freak who shot 64% and can take-over games when the 3's are not falling.

One of rare players to shoot over 60% while taking many shots and leading a team in scoring.

Bucks as a team  have the best 2 pt FG% margin since 1980, the Rockets do not have anything close to what the Warriors or Bucks have, doubtful any team similar to the Rockets will ever win a title.


on to game 7's.............................
 
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Posted: #208

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Rockets are who we thought they were................not a championship calibre team........................Crazy how many fell hook line and sinker for Rockets winning big. The pre-game panel, ex-nba stars all did as well as many on the site.Curry is the player who stirs the drink, Durant is added piece that makes the team virtually unbeatable.Harden for as great as he is, is not a great 3 pt shooter (36.8%), shoots only slightly above league ave.Harden has never once shot above 40% on 3's, Curry has never once shot below 40% nor has Klay, not many players in history can make that statement.Ray Allen can't nor can Reggie Miller. In fact, neither even came close to such great consistent shooting.Rockets try to create math advantages taking many, many 3's we've talked about this many times over the years , unless you have the greatest 3 pt shooter in history and another great 3 pt shooter it ain't going to work.Can't win titles, The Bucks if they win the title will set the record for taking the highest % of all shots as 3's, they don't have great 3 pt shooters but the do have the ultimate 2 pt shooting weapon in the Freak who shot 64% and can take-over games when the 3's are not falling.One of rare players to shoot over 60% while taking many shots and leading a team in scoring.Bucks as a team  have the best 2 pt FG% margin since 1980, the Rockets do not have anything close to what the Warriors or Bucks have, doubtful any team similar to the Rockets will ever win a title.on to game 7's.............................

I think Houston's collective Basketball IQ is not even close to the Warriors either.

 
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Posted: #209
Quote Originally Posted by Raiderpug:

I think Houston's collective Basketball IQ is not even close to the Warriors either.


alot of truth right there
 
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Posted: #210
MY LINES.............................game 7's (sun)


Raptors -6.13 over 76ers
Nuggets -2.73 over Blazers


pending plays.........................................

2 team series winner parley +175................3 units to win 5.25 units
Bucks
Raps


3 team series winner parlay +247.................1 unit to win 2.47 units
Bucks 
Raps
Warriors 



we need the Raps here SU to hit our 2 parlays for a nice 7.72 units

this will would  a very sweet end to our nice 2cd round........................




 
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Posted: #211
Lean --- Raptors -6 over 76ers

Don't see any point in making a play on the line when we have basically a ML play to win 2 parlays.

Although I do think Raps will get the cover.


will see how the line goes in the nuggets/Blazers game goes.

we may lean Blazers but the injuries to their big guy to much unknown there with Kanter.
 
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Posted: #212

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

MY LINES.............................game 7's (sun)Raptors -6.13 over 76ersNuggets -2.73 over Blazerspending plays.........................................2 team series winner parley +175................3 units to win 5.25 unitsBucksRaps3 team series winner parlay +247.................1 unit to win 2.47 unitsBucks RapsWarriors we need the Raps here SU to hit our 2 parlays for a nice 7.72 unitsthis will would  a very sweet end to our nice 2cd round........................

 

yessir! those are some nice parlays that are looking good! 

LETS GET MONEY!
 
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Posted: #213
Not surprised at all to see Blazers win SU, we talked quite a bit on how weak this no. 2 seed in Denver is.

even with the injury Blazers still pull it out.

That's 0-2 ATS for home teams this season in game 7's , definitely think home team Raps breaks the ice and get the cover.
 
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Posted: #214
leans 0-1

series winners --- 2-0 won 7.72 units


2cd ROUND..................................................

9-4 ATS, won 8.2 units
ML --- 2-1, won 1.64 units
totals --- 2-0 , won 3 units

series plays --- 2-0, won 7.72 units

total plays --- 15-5 (75%) , won 20.56 units

leans 4-1
 
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Posted: #215
CONFERENCE FINALS......................................................

my lines...........................game 1's

Warriors -7.61 over Blazers
Bucks -7.26 over Raptors


Here's the deal.....................................

with a 1 point difference between my lines and the closing line AND.........................FROM 2007 THROUGH 2016..... haven't updated past 2 seasons yet but about the same results

off a SU loss...............17-7 ATS 
off a ATS loss .............17-6 ATS
trailing by 2 games in the series..................9-2 ATS
all plays........................................................38-21 ATS
2.5  point diff................................................25-14 ATS
teams off a SU win and ATS win after trailing by 2 games or more ................9-0 ATS

 
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Posted: #216
Injuries with both Warriors and Blazers, the line is about correct based on my line with no injuries.

one thing we do know is elite teams in game 1 are a good play.

we will most likely lean Warriors game 1 but pass on taking any action.

based on PR's the Blazers have little to no shot to win this series. but without Durant we don't know how good this team is 

We do know they went to 2 title games won 1 and needed Green suspension, Bogurt hurt and Iggy hurt to lose one. 

We won't be backing Blazers to win series at any point.
 
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Posted: #217
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

 

Here's the deal.....................................

with a 1 point difference between my lines and the closing line AND.........................FROM 2007 THROUGH 2016..... haven't updated past 2 seasons yet but about the same results

off a SU loss...............17-7 ATS 
off a ATS loss .............17-6 ATS
trailing by 2 games in the series..................9-2 ATS
all plays........................................................38-21 ATS
2.5  point diff................................................25-14 ATS
teams off a SU win and ATS win after trailing by 2 games or more ................9-0 ATS



Are those your personal records for the Conference Round?
 
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Posted: #218
Quote Originally Posted by Prop_Source:



Are those your personal records for the Conference Round?


those are the history of my lines since 2007 in conference finals, we have played many of them and done well using them past years.
 
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Posted: #219

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Quote Originally Posted by Prop_Source:

Are those your personal records for the Conference Round?
those are the history of my lines since 2007 in conference finals, we have played many of them and done well using them past years.

 

new_raiseroofan_clap

 
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Posted: #220
LEAN --- Warriors -7 over Blazers 

elite teams have a history of covering game 1's and even better off a previous series game 1 ATS loss

but with all the injuries we pass on any action .
 
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Posted: #221
Leans --- 1-0

Warriors did their thing, great 3 pt shooting night.

If Blazers are to cover 1 of first 2 games on the road it'd be more likely in game 2 with elite teams being to good game 1, Warriors now 2-1 ATS game 1's  , AND 5-8 ATS OVERALL.

2-1 ATS game 1's and 3-7 ATS in all other games not game 1. 


 
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Posted: #222
MY LINES......................................game 1 (weds)

Bucks -7.26 over Raptors

Coming in a much better spot for Raps, Bucks playing on a very high unsustainable level.

However, eltie teams like the Bucks are very good plays in game 1's and incredible good plays coming of a previous series game 1's SU & ATS loss.

If line drops to 6 then we'd have a play on Bucks using my lines. However, the record of my lines in conference finals posted above do not include games played by teams in regression, like the Bucks.

Tough spot to cal with Bucks off a previous game 1 SU & ATS loss, the Freak is already talking about that game and trying to get his team ready so no repeat of game 1 SU loss.  but regression is the most powerful indicator we will not go against it.

 Bucks due a regression , Raps should almost certainly cover game 1 or game 2 and maybe both and they have a great shot to get 1 of those games SU, hopefully not both SU that'd be dreadfull for our futures plays on the Bucks.

Once the Bucks weather the regression storm they will take control of this series and cut off the head of these Raptors.

Hopefully we find a great spot to come in on series price for Bucks to win series at great odds. And possible we could parlay with Warriors to win series as well. 
 
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Posted: #223
Pending Futures Plays......................................

we made several throughout the season starting around the all-star break at various prices,  They total..........................

Bucks to win Title --- 6 units to win 51
Bucks to win East --- 6 units to win 13.6

Off the hook value as we reported when we placed these, and now we are 1 series away from cashing what is now a-260 or  -270 series price and we are getting +227 on this incredible Bucks machine.

19 of our last 23 (82.6%)  no. 1 ranked teams in our PR"s in the various sports we cover have made the title game..................here's to the incredible Bucks becoming the 20th, hopefully .......................................
 
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Posted: #224
Raptors +6.5 over Bucks --- 1.1 units

Bucks TT UNDER 111.5 --- 1.1 units 

Raps should cover one of first 2 so we'll take a small play game 1..
 
 
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Posted: #225

As you said Elite teams cover game 1. I guess the question then is just how elite is this Bucks team? I guess we will find out tonight. I agree Raptors should take one of the games ats. Honestly with the theory that great teams cover game 1 and with what Giannis said about this game that this team will come out ready. Kawhi used his entire tank of gas game 7 (him and his 41 shots literally bailed them out every single possession) and I cant envision back to back 30+ shot games from him. Personally I think he comes out a bit slower himself trying to get more people involved. Because of this and Giannis' comment Im leaning Bucks 1H (if Kawhi doesnt need to turn it on til at half with them only down say 6 I think theyd take that.) 

I can see either team full game but I cant get past the fact that Bucks 1H might be the best play in this particular game (I usually prefer to take points myself but hey) 

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