2015 Miami Dolphins thread

2013 season : Dolphins start out 3-0, then fall to 3-4. For the next 8 weeks they fight their butt off through a lot of advarsity (bullying scandal) where they could have easily given up. They sat at 8-6 and needed one win in the final 2 weeks to make the playoffs. Didn't happen. The #1 reason was god awful O-line play. They went out and signed Albert, and drafted Jawaun James.

2014 Season : Dolphins start out like gang-busters week 1 vs NE with Moreno running for 150 yards. He then gets hurt, and Dolphins struggle learning their new offense under Lazor. Dolphins sit at 1-2, and then move to 5-3 after a BEATDOWN of SD 37-0. (Should have been 6-2 if not for damn Aaron Rodgers.)...Then the most valuable player on their team (tied with Tannehill) tears his ACL. Brandon Albert. The Dolphins go 3-5 the rest of the season losing games vs Denver (38-35), and against NE and Baltimore where they lead at halftime.

Anyone can look at those 2 seasons and see the Dolphins are one player, or one play away from the playoffs. Enter Suh, the absolute biggest beast in the NFL not named Watt. Training camp is only a few days old and his teammates are beyond impressed. They say he is making them better and does not take plays off. The first day of camp with pads on he put 2 offensive lineman on their back. Believe me when I say this will help make the O-line better. Much like going against Wake last year made Jawaun James better.

Last season betting recap:

Games: 23-12 +35 units (Was 16-4 +44 units thru week 9 until Albert got injured)

Player Props: 3-6 -4.0 units. Caught some bad luck in these. Lost 6 units on Tannehill week 3 vs KC, a week before his best game of career. Finishied 3 yards short on Lamar Miller prop and bet on Tannehills legs a few weeks before coaches started to utilize him running the ball

Futures: -0.4 units. 1 more win, Clay not getting injured and Wallace not getting benched week 17 and I could have easily finished +20units on these. I did hedge week 17 with Clay and Wallace as mentioned in my thread, (both were under 100 yards from going over heading to week 17) but it was unposted.

Also, you may think I'm a huge homer but I can tell when they are facing a bad matchup. They lost 5 games by double digits last year and I was only on 2 of them. I also said their was value in KC ML last year when they played.

Now onto the 2015 Dolphins.

Let me start by saying in the two years of doing Dolphins season threads I have only made 2 gaurantees. There were people in my original thread in 2013 saying that the Dolphins were going to suck and possibly start out 0-7. I GUARANTEED the Dolphins would not start out 0-7...They went on to start the season 3-0. My second guarantee came that same year when the Dolphins played @ Jets week 13. The line was Dolphins +1 and I GUARANTEED the Dolphins +7.5 was a near certain lock. (Dolphins won 23-3). As you can see my guarantees are few and far between, but I have another for you that I'm 100% confident in. That GUARANTEE is the 2015 Miami Dolphins will be better than you think. No matter how you feel about the Dolphins this exact moment you read this sentence. I promise you they will have a better season, and finish with a better record than you think. Don't believe me? Well, it will cost you some units until you do.

Key Additions: Suh, Parker, Stills, Jennings, Cameron, Mosley, 3 new CBs (Mccain, Mccain, Bowman)

Key Losses: Clay (painful) Wallace, Hartline, Gibson, Oderick, Starks

Addition by subtraction: Get the hell off the roster Jimmy Wilson, thank god.

QB - What can be said about Ryan Tannehill that I haven't said already. Dude has everything you could want in a QB. Strong, fast, big arm, smart, tough (48 out of 48 starts), hard worker, no off field issues, strives for greatness. People love to hate Tannehill, I get it. Until he makes a run to the playoffs he will catch hate. How a guy who threw for 27 TDs, 12 Ints, and 4000 yards catches so much hate I will never know. He is also easily one of the best running QBs in the game. I have seen every throw he has ever made and some of them leave my jaw dropped. This will be the year he reaches close to max potential. My favorite Dolphins writer (Omar Kelly) was not a Tannehill fan at all. AT ALL. Even he has admitted in the last few months that Tannehill will most likely take the next step. He can't stop talking about how in control Tannehill looks of the offense and how confortable he is. That should say a lot. Also have Matt Moore who is one of the best back ups in the league should he need to fill in for a game or 2.

RB - Lamar Miller really surprised me last year. He had 216 carries for 1100 yards. (5.1) yards a carry. He only averaged about 15-20 carries a game because he is on the smaller side. He bulked up with 15 pounds of muscle in the off season and should be looking to rush for over 1200 yards. I love Miami's backup and third down back Jay Ajayi. He is the only player in college football history with 1800 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards. Dude can play. Questions about his knee made him fall to 5th round but everything I saw has impressed me in college. Very excited. Miami's 3rd and 4th Rbs are Damien Williams who reminds me of Reggie Bush and Lamichael James who has been very impressive in the in the first few days of camp. Very Elusive.

WR - Now we get into the Meat of the Dolphins team. Wow Do I love their receiving core. They go from Wallace, Juice, Hartline, Gibson and Matthews to Juice, Parker, Stills, Jennings and Matthews. How many teams in the NFL have a #5 receiver who has a game of 14 catches for 122 yards? Not many. The Dolphins have weapons for days. Jarvis Landry is such a stud words can't describe how good he is. Parker is a big beast WR, Stills can run the deep ball and Jennings can go over the middle and brings veteran leadership. Dangerous unit and 2nd best part of the team besides DL.

TE - Losing Clay sucks, no doubt about it but if Cameron can stay healthy that is all just a bonus. Mark my words if Jordan Cameron has a big season, the Dolphins will be one of the best offenses in the league. He is the X factor. I love the #2 TE too Dion Sims. Big guy known for blocking but he can go out and make some plays. Really reminded me of Charles Clay just alittle bigger. If you are counting that is 7 quality targets that Tannehill has to throw to. Kind of scary.

OL - The only part of the team that worries me even alittle. Well besides LB kind of. Albert is the key to this team. If he is in the lineup, the O-line will be solid no matter who is around him. Pouncey is a pro bowl center and James was an all rookie player. Now the question marks Billy turner and Dallas Thomas. They also drafted an OL in 3rd round to give them competition. These guys need to get better, its that simple. They might be the only thing stopping the Dolphins from winning 12 games. If they struggle early in pre-season the dolphins will be quickly on the horn to Evan Mathis agent. If they do bring in Mathis (I hope) that honestly might be the final piece of the puzzle.

DL - Not much needs to be said about this unit. Maybe the best in the NFL. Cameron wake, and Suh will be lining up next to eachother. You can't double team both of those guys. Did I also mention they have Olivier 'OV' Vernon who has 21.5 sacks in 2 years, and CJ Mosley. Earl Mitchell and big boy Rookie Jamil Douglas round it out. Dolphins biggest weakness last year was interior run and toughness. Suh solves all that in 1 man. He brings a toughness and intensity to this team that is sorely lacked. This unit will dominate games and be the reason the Dolphins are what they are this year.

LB - Not much to say about this. They have talented players and Suh will help this unit a lot. Freeing up gaps and such. Got rid of busts Ellerbe and Wheeler (2nd worst player on team besides Jimmy Wilson) Misi, Jenkins, Sheppard and my man Chris Mccain will see the bulk of the playing time. The 2nd worst unit of this team but again it is average at worst.

CB - Their secondary goes from Grimes, Finnegan, Taylor, Wilson to Grimes, Taylor, Will Davis, Mccain (from Steelers) Mccain (drafted) Bowman (Giants) and young but impressive Tony Lippet. Grimes is a monster but the x factor for the defense and maybe the team (besides Cameron) is Jamar Taylor. He was drafted in the 2nd round three years ago and has suffered 2 freak injuries the last 2 years. He is a really solid CB who could turn into a star. He is very important. Last year vs Denver Dolphins were winning 28-17 with 17 minutes left when Taylor left with a freak shoulder injury. Broncos scored 22 straight points on 3 possesions to win 39-36. I love the depth this unit has. Definitely the deepest part of the Dolphins team. Not to mention bust Jimmy Wilson is gone. Ya know, the under sized nickle corner who couldn't tackle, couldn't cover, couldn't make a play. That guy. He is replaced by Mccain who held QBs to 72.5 rating and 1 TD against him in 51 targets.

Safety - Delmas and Reshad Jones are 2 of the best safeties in the league when healthy. Not much needs to be said. Walt Aiken (who had the pick of the season for Miami last year) and Michael Thomas (who had game sealing INT in the endzone 2 years ago vs Brady) are the back ups. Also drafting a safety out of Texas in the 5th round.

Special teams: Sturgis is shaky at best and Fields is one of best punters in the league.

Again, not many weaknesses at all on this team. A lot will be determined by the O-line. If the Oline plays well the Dolphins are a superbowl contender. If they don't, Miami is a 9-10 win fringe playoff team. Remeber though, the O-line was just starting to gel with these 5 guys in a 37-0 win last year vs SD. I truly believe this team will resemble the team from that day. So much potential. So much potential for this team.

Fantasy football projections.

Tannehill. I expect 30 TDs and 4500 yards. Take it for what its worth he could be your starter or the best fantasy backup in the league.

Lamar Miller. Look for close to 1200 yards. Very solid RB#2

Juice. My favorite player, break out year coming. He should bring the kind of hype the ODB jr brought. He has that much talent

Parker. This guy brings a lot of potential. Him having a rookie year like Benjamin did last year would not surprise me

I wouldn't draft Stills or Jennings and Cameron has too much chance of injury.

Conclusion

So, what can keep the Dolphins out of the playoffs this year. One word, injury. The most valuable players to this team in order are. Tannehill, Albert, Suh, Wake, Grimes, Juice, Pouncey, Parker, Jawuan James, Lamar Miller. The good thing is if you are betting or plan to bet a fins game. Check this thread and you will know if any of these guys are not playing or doubtful.

Projection: This is the year. Laugh, scoff, roll your eyes, whatever you want to do, but barring injury this is the year the Dolphins make the playoffs and probably win a playoff game. You will not find many teams in the NFL with more talent man 1-53. You can either accept that fact and make money off them, or you can fall behind thinking this is the Miami dolphins of 2010. Your choice. I see the Dolphins at 11-5 and falling a few plays short of the AFC championship game. Their schedule makes it they could possibly start out 6-0. @ Skins, @ Jags, Bills, Jets, @ Titans, Texans...I could see 5-1, 4-2 or 6-0 before a HUGE week 8 matchup on thursday night at New England. Win lose or draw this is going to be a fun season, and one to remember.

FINS UP!

That is a very fair statement, but what exactly about him do you not like?

He completed 14 in a row last year vs Oakland. Completed 13 in a row against the Bears, and had a perfect 2nd half vs the GB packers. He also threw for 400 yards and 4 TDs against the Vikings, and was 21-31 for 300 yards and 3 TDS against SD.

What about Tannehill makes you think he is suspect? They also beat SD the last 2 years, one of them 37-0 and the Chargers didn't do much except get Gordon. I definitely think the Dolphins are a better team than SD.

Yes I will be absolutely pounding them week 1 (should be -3 by kickoff) but I will be on them way before that, and then most likely -6.5 vs the Jags. Will most likely be treading kind of light week 3 and 4 vs Bills / Jets.

I can't watch highlights of that game. Too painful. If Grimes doesn't slip on 4th down or Phillip Wheeler isn't covering Nelson on the last play they probably win.

Suuma

With Albert, Tannehill was sacked 17 times in 281 drop backs with a 5-3 record.....He was also only sacked 8 times in the  last 5 games Alberts played in once the line gelled. (Surprise Miami was 4-1 and should have been 5-0 except for Aaron Rodgers.)

Without Albert, Tannehill was sacked 29 times in 309 drop backs with a 3-5 record.

Philbin isn't a great coach but believe me when I say Brandon Albert tearing his ACL cost this team the playoffs. 100%

Tanehill doesn't struggle when it counts though.

He only had 2 chances to lead a 4th quarter comeback last year (Denver and Vikings) He converted 1 of those 2 and in the Denver game the ball bounced off the receivers hands for an INT which wasn't his fault.

The year before he lead 4th quarter comebacks vs Atlanta, Cincinnati, New England. They were also down 3 vs Baltimore and Tannehill lead them back in the final 1:42 for a FG attempt that Sturgis missed. He failed vs Buffalo with 30 seconds and vs TB.

So in 8 chances he converted in 5 of those. That's not very suspect to me. Also if you put Tannehill on Seattle or Arizona Cardinals he would have a ring by now.

A sack or 2 a game can be the difference between a win and a loss. Also before getting Albert the Dolphins have possibly the worst offensive line in the history of the NFL. That's why he is so valuable to this team.

If you take out week 2 and 3 in which Albert admits he struggled. He was only sacked 9 times in 6 games and Dolphins were 5-1 in those games, again should have been 6-0. Those numbers speak for themselves.

Very Excited to SEE the AFC EAST Battles this season . Think it will be very tight ...  Right now I have the Dolphins First , followed by the Bills , Pats and Jets . 

Really think with or without Brady the Pats take a step back , Losing Revis, changes the whole defense .  I cant see them winning more than 9 games ...

Dolphins 10.5 Wins

Bills 10.1 

Pats  9.4

Jets  6.8

It may be a 'love fest' but my results speak for themselves when betting on the Dolphins. The point of this thread is to inform those people looking to bet on the Dolphins, who may not know much about them because they really don't get too much media coverage.

Again, week 3 last year vs KC the line was Dolphins -5. I said there was value in KC moneyline, and the Chiefs went on to win by 2 touchdowns. I don't like to bet against the Dolphins but I usually know when they are going to lose. It might be a love fest rest night, but that's because the Dolphins have the potential to be one of the best teams in football. Which I'm trying to get across because most people think they are an 8-8 team.

Doubleup.