And I'm sure it won't burst D49's comfy bubble when CLE beats Goof's Lyingdowns this week at home.
Of course I'll be taking the ML as they'll probably only do it by 3 regardless of who's piloting this mission.
None the less, calling a CLE s/u win. After that, it's anyone's game ? (although quite frankly, I see them winning 1/2 BAL games and PIT and who knows ?
Well I guess we are just going to have to disagree but I will point out that I "made my intentions clear" the very next day..less than 24 hours later. Certainly not "several days later". As well, I posted every book that I knew of that still had the bet up. I told the forum it was still up at bet365, draftkings, and FanDuel. A few posters here have said they tailed the play, so your "it was no use to anyone" comment is again way off base. The play was also made at 3-3 and 11 games left, not 5-5 and 7 left. It's a big difference, as they needed to won 72% of their remaining games. They now need to win 84%. I also posted last week that the Browns number was 9.5 and still a great bet to the under. After they got killed last week and more injuries, their number is now as low as 7.5 in some places. And the idea of betting against Cleveland for the remainder of the season is beyond silly. It's not the same bet at all. Cleveland could win 80% of their remaining games and still go under the 10.5.
I did not want to reveal the play right away because pretty much the entire board claims they make massive bets without a second thought...it's BS I know...but still I didn't want someone to log into their mgm account, make a decent sized bet and get the bet removed. I don't know if you watched the video, in fact I'm sure you didn't, but when I made the bet, they removed the bet right then and there. In other states you can bet the mgm lines through the app. In Washington state, you cannot. In fact, making any bet while in Washington state is illegal. Another reason why maybe going to Vegas wasn't such a bad idea. I know I know, the FBI isn't gonna arrest me so who cares that it's illegal. Yeah I Do.
I would love to see people posting their big plays, videos, threads, whatever. People taking the risk, knowing good and well they are gonna get shit on if they happen to be wrong. It's much more interesting then the same old every day nonsense people posting "massive bet", "GOY", "Max Bet", "Xtra Xtra Large" every damn day. The entire 1st 3 pages of the NFL forum right now is thread about everyone's "incredibly massive bets" more like guesses on the NE ATL game. And of course, their 2nd half guesses for massive money again. And of course the guy who is funding Christmas with his $65,000 bet. Then he loses badly, his team scored 0 points, then after the game admits he didn't actually bet any money. Real interesting.
Thank you BbGunzz. I'm feeling great about it. Even the hater sees them winning 1 out of 2 against BAL. I'm not sure they even get 1 but if they split, they still have to win every other game on their schedule...every single one. Lol. That game at Green Bay, At Pittsburgh, Bengals, Raiders, and that's if they get 1 against Baltimore which I doubt. And their injuries are far deeper than just Mayfield. This entire team is injured and beyond the Lions game, I think they should be dogs in every game, and all they have to do is win every single game they have left except 1. They only lost by 38 points last week.
Thank you.
They do have talent but they have massive injuries up and down. Hunt is out again, Mayfield now with leg and shoulder injuries, Landry injured. Staying healthy is as important as having talent.
First of all , I appreciate your youtube post. After that my buddy & i bet it @ bet365 for 5k Cle total wins 10.5 under -130. Everything that you said made so much sense with the inj on Cleveland. I will not be wasting time replying to those haters who may be jealous because they had missed the boat. All the best & thanks again for your posts.
Lordbettington its a little bit risky but I think for +140 its decent. I really dont see them winning 4 more games but they could. They will probably be 6-5 on Sunday but then 4 more division games, I think they will go 1-3 in those. That would make them 7-8 so they would have to win at Gb and bet the Raiders. So I think they will finish 8-9 or 9-8 if they can split the 4 remaining division games. I think its worth a shot at +140 and it will look real good if somehow the Lions can come through this weekend.
Thank you le2a, I agree this under 10.5 was a great bet. I'm glad others got on it too. We are going to cash this. This team is not going to win close to 11 games and Mayfield is still very injured.
Danny,
I also tailed you as well, but I bet "no playoff" at +200 to win for Cleveland at the time. What do you think?
Is anybody interested in getting a group together to analyze future bets, playoff/no playoff/ division bets...
I can honestly say I have made money over the past 20 years. I do not bet point spreads, totals, etc, you have no chance. You do
have a chance with future bets. My last hit was Giants to win NL west $100 at 80/1 over the summer, bet was placed last May.
Sorry, I hadn't noticed this. I am just like you. I don't play day to day much and IMO pretty much no one wins long term betting day to day spreads. These lines are very sharp, it's hard to consistently find find +EV on the daily board. Thats a nice hit on the Giants at 80/1. My biggest single loss of my life was $7000 - on the Dodgers to win NL West. Fortunately I got $4800 on Braves to win NL East and another $1000 for them to win World Series. So its only a $1200 loss. I agree that the futures board are packed full of +EV plays. It just seems not many people are interested in tying up money even for 2 months. I would rather risk my money on a season long bet than on an individual game. An overvalued team may win any particular game, but by the end of the season an overvalued team wont be able to keep up with unreasonable expectations. Like the Browns needing to go 8-3 in their last 11. Severe injuries, strong schedule, and not that good of a team to begin with. Nothing is a lock but that was at least an 80% play at -130. And some people saw it before the season and got it at +115. So that's even better. I looked at all the regular season wins before season but I didn't touch the Browns before season. I didn't think the Bengals were gonna be this good, thought the Steelers would suck, and didn't have all the injuries yet. I will be going out to Vegas sometime in January for a few days depending on when me and the guy I am going with can get same time off. Sometime in January after the season is over of course. All my season win totals placed before the season are doing great except Arizona under ( I lost that one already ) and Broncos I have them under 9.5. I still like it, but I have to admit they are doing much better than I expected. Still, worse case scenario is going to be +$15,000 winnings on the season win totals and 10-2 worse case record. I could never do that guessing daily spreads.
They seem to be offering updated NBA season win totals too. And some of these seem to be stupid soft. The Cavs are 10-10 and their number is at 31.5. This is a much better team than anyone knew and the 31.5 is way too low. They just had a 5 game losing streak against all Championship contenders ( Nets 2x, GS, Phoenix ). They lost them all, but they hung tight in every game. This of course is not a championship caliber team but this is a decent 38-44 or better team.
Minnesota 36.5 is way too low.
I got Golden State over 50.5 +130 ever after they started 10-2 or whatever. Yes +130 on an over that they should easily get.
Keeping an eye on NFL and NBA win totals and if they do it in MLB too.
I agree, its much better than guessing who is going win between Seattle and WFT tonight. I would love to get a group together as you suggest, but only a few are interested. All my friends who gamble wont tie money up for 2 months because bankrolls are so low, it would keep them from betting day to day. They don't seem to see that the day to day betting is why bankrolls are so low. That used to be me. To each their own I guess. The season long action just sits better with me then losing my money in 2 or 3 hours.
I assume I am "D49" ?
No it didnt burst my bubble, I fully expected them to beat Detroit. I almost wanted them to beat Detroit as I have a prop bet that Detroits first win will be against Broncos. If Vikings win this weekend, I will probably hedge it.
We just need 1 more loss or tie now.
But actually good call, they won by 3 points like you called.
@Danny9999
Replying to your post #113, too big to quote...
Agree 100%.
I use an Indian casino. they use a Euro oddsmaker. Most of their business is soccer, so I don't think they pay attention to American sports as much. The lines are very slow to move. I think they don't move at all until money is bet on them.
LY, the Suns were in first place by a couple games, and the Clippers, Lakers and GSW all had inuries, and they were still +1000 for the Pacific. The line didn't move when Lebron got his injury. I grabbed RSW over on the Bills LY around week 10and they went over by 3 games. I got Raptors No Playoffs +200 after they lost a ton of games in a row when they couldn't play in Canada - thought they were going to trade Lowry but liked it either way.
I use PlayoffStatus.com. You need to wait for enough of the season to play out. LY they said the Bears had a 50% chance to make playoffs. The book offerred +500. I looked it over and liked their chances.
I plan on researching futures the next week or so, NBA and NFL, I will post here if anything stands out to get a second opinion.
YW. Hopefully the Ravens will finish this up in 2 weeks. Surely Jackson won't throw 4 INT again. Browns should be dogs in all 5 remaining games. Mayfield is injured very badly we might even see Keenum after the bye week.
Yeah I remember the Sun's being big +. They had Lakers and Clippers as the favorite. I talked myself out of it.
I agree The futures board is full of +EV
How about those Cavs ?
They were +250 ML tonight and they are up 22 points at the end of the third quarter.
They were on a 5 game losing streak having lost to Nets twice, GS twice and Phoenix. That's a brutal 5 game stretch. They went 0-5 against the 3 best teams but they hung tight in all 5 games and tonight they are smashing the first place Mavs. This is a pretty decent Cavs squad this year. They will be 11-10 if they hold on tonight and they just got 5 brutal games out of the way. This team will win over 31.5 with ease. That is what it was when I mentioned it in the earlier post but it might be adjusted to 32.5 after tonight. They will win 40 easily IMO
@Danny9999
Thanks for the insights. I think Cleveland no playoffs is going to hit, 80 percent chance of no playoffs right now. They really are a choke team when it comes down to it.
Am thinking Michigan at 10:1 to win the NCAA title. I think they can get to title game and hedging is available. The monkey is off Harbaughs back. I got them at 12:1 to win Big 10 four games into the season.
Agree with over 40. jcavs are like the knicks from last year. They play hard and have a great chance to make the playoffs I got yes 6-1.
you are one of a handful on here who backed their words with proof. Everyone else like the vanzacks just spew utter bullshit and brag and always fall into their own pile of shit in the end. I couldn’t find your video on YouTube, was it deleted? Anyhow, good bet. 
This is a lot of great info here about future betting. I am someone who doesn't make big bets but loves sports betting for entertainment purposes and I have been lurking on these forums for a while. It's great to see some legitimately useful information and conversation. I definitely agree that there is much more value to be had with future bets than on betting on games. I was fortunate enough to get in on the Shohei MVP train early. The writing was on the wall that he was a virtual lock early in the season as long as he stayed healthy but my sportsbook, much like in the example of the Browns, was very slow to adjust his in season odds from where he was preseason.
Anyway, thanks for the great content!
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