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Key-One other comment from your review. You are correct, there are many seasons within the season. Most bettors form an opinion of a team and carry that opinion thru the entire season. Never adusting along the way. I have been a bettor of basebsll for 25 years and I have always belived it is (what happened yesterday) not what happened two weeks ago or what happened last year. again thanks for all your hard work and insight and also your humor.
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KeyElement | 45 |
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Key-like S/D as well--add to your review--S/F off long rd trip--9 games 3 cities and late night flight home.with 0 runs on the board. You are spot on about Houston--They offer many nice spots to play on as well with Mia. Thanks for all your insight |
KeyElement | 45 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement: The storm arrived a day later and quite a storm it was.
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922 If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice. MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units 6.09.2013, 1-0, +4.17 Units, +83.33% ROI YTD – 128-132-26, +53.68 Units, +4.16% ROI 5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted Today’s comment: Sometimes after a big disappointment it is better to just back off, put a win on the books and then move forward. That’s what I did yesterday and now I feel rejuvenated. Let’s move on. St Louis is 19-1 off a loss its last 20. I love your humor--keep up the great work you do. thanks |
KeyElement | 42 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Cappernicking:
Txs baseball press.com |
Cappernicking | 2 |
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DON MERIDTH SAYS Turn out the lights the party's over HOWARD say's your right |
2211nfl | 3 |
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thanks
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2211nfl | 1 |
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tootsiepop play anyone know thanks |
2211nfl | 3 |
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Anyone seen demapples play of the week? thanks |
2211nfl | 1 |
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Key--I assume the SF to be a 9 inn play? Thanks for the Blog |
KeyElement | 40 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI 2012 Playoffs: 11-5-3, +24.79 Units, 37.2% ROI All Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice” Sunday: Tigers F5 +135, FG +134 (Sanchez / Kuroda) Push, Win Monday: Cardinals @ Giants (Carpenter / / Vogelsong) F5 Over 3.5, -110 FG Over 6.5, -110, W,W Tuesday: Yankees @ Tigers (Hughes / Verlander) No Play Verlander looks like the obvious choice and I don’t dispute that but a -180 line overvalues him while not giving Hughes enough bonus money to be worth a play. The total is not so easy either as the pitching calls for an under but the potential offense could be enough to push it over, especially if either Hughes or Verlander gets off to a rough start. I will just have to pass on this one and get my stuff ready for tomorrow, as well as refine my NBA a little for this season, which is right around the corner. So, if you play, BOL Key-A question if your time permits? My thoughts -If this was two months ago the line would be 150 to 160. but with the lack of NY offense production of late, plus the Jeter factor the line opens at 180. Everyone expects Ny to go quietly away. I certainly don't expect all of the NY bats to wake up but perhaps two or three could come out of their slumps. We all know Verlander and how he is expected to perform. At what price in your opinion would NY offer enough value to profer a play on NY---PS I live in Yuma, I am a Montana transplant not a bird. Thanks for all your expertise and opinions. |
KeyElement | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI 2012 Playoffs: 8-5-2, +8.95 Units All Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice” Tigers F5 +135, FG +134 (Sanchez / Kuroda) I expected to see the Yankees open as a short favorite and was a little surprised when Pinnacle started the show at -136, a little high in my opinion, but very high at the current BetOnline top of -144. That requires a win probability of 59% to break even and I just don’t see it. According to my numbers the Tigers need a 42.7% win probability and that seems more likely. Much will be spoken and written today about the loss of Jeter for the Yankees, so here is my two bits worth. The loss of captain Jeter is not nearly as significant as the loss of lead off Jeter. These guys are mature professionals, they can live without a captain on the field, their jobs remain the same and they know how to do them. On a team struggling to score runs though, a rock solid lead off man leaves a heck of hole right up front. I suppose some people will be of the opinion that the injury will bring the team together and others will step up to the task. Possible, but there is no way to know for sure and it is just as likely their struggles continue or get worse. Sanchez is undervalued by the home team Yankee loving bettors and is a quality choice to start this game, versus Kuroda or any other Yankee starter other than Sabathia. Scherzer would have been my personal choice, but it ain’t my job and I ain’t responsible for the results, so I will trust the Tigers brain trust to have made the right one. They have their reasons and are closer to the game than I am. I also like the fact that this is the fifth playoff game in five days for the Yankees and has an early start time. Too much value to pass. BOL I always look forward to your posts each day for many obvious reasons!! I agree with all of the above. win or lose Det is the value side> I don't understand the NY money coming on this game? Thanks for your insight. |
KeyElement | 15 |
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Key--S.Fran--Best play on the board today--win or lose!! The line is a need to win line. Their clubhouse will be watching the Cinci & St Louis game --Focus can wander? Thanks for your expertise |
KeyElement | 23 |
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Mr. Bator; Thanks for jumping in with your support. Not much interest in my post untill you jumped in. I actually think it's a stronger play than the matchup with TB, as Tx is certainly not lighting things up at 6-4 last 10 games. I use to hang at the Stardust--It was the best. There will n3ever be another place like it. I know you hung there too, along with you I have endless stories about my time at the dust. Phones out the back door!! coffee off the cart in the morning along with a sweet role to start the baseball day. Bidding on Sunday night to be one of the first ten to take a-shot at the opening NFL lines. Horse player's, and sports players argueing endlessly. Personalties of ever kind. I rememeber one of your comments a couple of years back about the Sunday night base ball game--Everyone turned over the line sheet--reviewed the pitcher's and simply to took the better pitcher. Wrong!! The dust was disney land for a sports bettor. Good luck to you always and thanks again for stopping in. |
2211nfl | 50 |
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Please share your thoughts on this game. Thanks |
2211nfl | 50 |
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It's lame putting this in the penalty box
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2211nfl | 6 |
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This situation is 6-0 this year with KC good luck what ever your decide |
2211nfl | 50 |
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I believe the KC situation is the same as Mr Bator pointed out a couple of weeks ago. Hochevar off two team loss"s, call's for a play on KC. Good luck |
2211nfl | 50 |
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I believe the KC situation today is the same as Mr. Bator brought to our attention a couple of weeks ago. Hochevar off two team loss's. A play on KC Bator give a shout if correct. Thanks |
2211nfl | 6 |
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Mr. B --Your the best --I am on kc prior to reading your post, as KC has been playing well of late and also pitching well as of late. Bator your the best --Please show up more often--Many of us miss your vast knowledge. Thanks |
MrBator | 239 |
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Key--Thanks for your thoughts---I AM LEANING OVER AS WELL Thanks |
KeyElement | 36 |
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