Biscuit

@undermysac 

@cubd80 

 Good observations 

in the last 4 games Bears D has allowed avg 24.5 ppg

in the previous 12 games including last season, they allowed 16.3 ppg

Tommy D has attempted 178 passes and been sacked 37 times.    That’s 1 in every 5 dropbacks.    Those are historically bad numbers.

I looked at DK and the only sack props I could get was Lavonte David Over 0.25 sacks +260.   (He has 3 sacks this season).   The only other offer was Will TBY record a Sack?   NO +1600 no YES offered……lol

GL with the G-men 

@undermysac

 Nice analysis 

I also wonder if the team is close to quitting on the HC.    They got the OC fired, I’m pretty sure they’d like to see the whole coaching staff gone.     They’re ruining the QB, and the offense is pathetic for the amount of talent they possess at skill positions.

in the last 3 games the Bears rank #31 with 151 pass yards per game, and are dead last scoring about 10 pts per game.   Also in the last 3 games Vikes allowed 52 rush yards/game, bears allow 154 rush yds/game.    

Vikes have won last 3 meetings in Chicago and could easily win this game by DD.    One thing I don’t like, this is their 3rd straight road game, and 4th in 5 games.   Still, I think they win by at least a TD

BOL

@NONEED4LUCK

 Nice writeup, I agree with most of it, but I disagree with characterizing this as a MUST WIN game for the Steelers.    IMO the only “must win” games are the ones that eliminate you from the playoffs, or qualifying for the playoffs.

as for the Browns……this is a classic high/low play, a Steelers team coming off a big win traveling to a division rival who got crushed in the last couple of games, on a short week, and giving points in a location where they’ve lost the last couple of meetings.   If I’m laying points with a division rival as a visitor, I like to see that they’ve won in that stadium at least once in the last 2 years.

I don’t like this game much, so I’m gonna give it a miss, but I lean to Browns

GL 

This season teams are 3-7 ATS in their next game after playing the Ravens

I think Hawks got their mojo back with a big win @SFO and they’ll end their home losing streak by beating the Cards

@dogball

BOL  

@Taipei-Tony

re Packers game, not sure I like either side, but I took Bears TT Over 17’ +105

Yeah I’m not a Mac Jones believer but he is capable of having a decent game and keeping the Jags within 2 TDs.   He DID win vs the Bills last year.   Mostly I think the Lions might be flat in this spot.

Seahawks coming off a bye week, but it was a bye-bye week for their center Connor Williams who just said I’m outta here, and retired at age 27.   Their O-line was already pretty shaky, now they have Oluwatimi to take his place, drafted last year in the 5th round, and doesn’t have much experience.  Don’t love either side, but at least the 49ers are good teaser material, I think.

I like McCaffey Over 122’ rush + rec yds.   In 5 games vs Hawks he’s averaged 167 yds from scrimmage.

GL 

@Fuse 

Lions hangover updated record

1-6 SU

0-7 ATS

Rams +1 lose to Cards 41-10

Bucs -6 lose to Broncos 26-7

Cards -3’ lose to Commandos 42-14

Seahawks -7 lose to Giants 29-20

Cowboys +5’ lose to 49ers 30-24 (after bye)

Vikes -3 lose to Rams 30-20

Titans -3’ vs Patriots win 20-17

Packers -5’ at Bears ??? (after bye)

Texans -7’ at Cowboys ???

Whatever the negative impact of playing the Lions may have on a team, it’s certainly less of an issue after two weeks, so other factors would seem to take precedence in the Packers game.   While they’ve dominated Chicago in recent years, the Bears may rally behind their new offensive play caller to get the win, or at least the cover.    Just as the Saints with a new HC beat the Falcons last weekend, the Bears with a new OC may exceed expectations in this game.    My initial reaction was to side with the packers, but in the past couple of days I’m thinking bears might be the play here.    

Will the Texans have a letdown after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory vs the Lions?    After getting blown out in their last 2 home games, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys keep this one close.

Will the Lions hangover affect the Lions this week?    In the past 2 weeks they’ve played games requiring high intensity vs the rival Packers, then they spent a lot of energy to overcome a 16 point deficit at the Texans.    They might be a bit flat here vs the Jags, who are 2-8 but are still playing hard for their HC, and have won last 4 ATS.    

Not sure I can say the same for the Raiders.    I’m suspicious of teams who play lackluster defense.   They held the Ravens to 23 points in Baltimore but since then have allowed an average of 31 pts in their last 5 games.    Maybe they’ll give a better effort after their bye week, but the Fins TT Over still seems like the best option in this matchup.

49ers have beaten the Hawks last 6 meetings, out scoring them 184-96.    Seattle is coming off of a bye, which gave them a chance to make adjustments going forward.    I think they will have QB Smith taking more snaps under center, and try to put more emphasis on the running attack.    I like Kenneth Walker Over 13’ rush attempts -115 in this game.

Not sure what to think about KC @Bills.   I lean to the Bills here, but Chiefs have won 15 straight, and it’s best to bet into a streak, not against it.    Chiefs have held opponents under 28 points in their last 30 games, so this could be a close, low scoring game

Any thoughts welcome

Eagles D allowing 13 pts/game last 5 

allowing 213 yds/game last 3 

lean to birds tonight 

great post, agree 100%

Home team + better defense + getting points

I got Steelers +3’ -120

GL AM 

I like the packers and they are also great teaser material

wheel them on teasers with teams like Steelers chiefs 49ers etc

BOL

Waldron out=rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic

theyve got a lot of other problems

Bears record is currently 4-5

So if you think they can get to 7 wins you can get +135 at DK

but I’m gonna pass on that and fade them every reasonable chance I get 

The Geriatric Bowl

in a few weeks Rodgers turns 41, Flacco turns 40

Bears are a mediocre organization that can dominate other mediocre organizations teams from time to time, but I’d think twice about backing them vs good organization teams like Steelers 49ers chiefs ravens etc

I estimate what the lines will be before I actually look at them.    Usually I’m spot on, or within a point, or maybe two.

I figured the Steelers would be -2, so getting points seems like a gift

BOL Biggs 

He definitely should’ve gone for it

no riskit no biskit 

what happened in OT was entirely predictable 

Putting aide the “rigged” angle, I think you made 2 fundamental errors

1) you violated the “don’t take the worst of it” rule……you could’ve had Lions -2’ before the game started, why would you then lay -13 to the packers in game?  In Green Bay?   Especially considering that they can rally and close the deficit, since they are like #6 in PPG.   The only play worth consideration would’ve been packers +13 in game…..or pass on any in game action

2) this is not the NBA, where a team can be expected to score a certain number of points in a game.    In football, if a team scores 20 points in the first half, that doesn’t mean they are on track to score 40 in the full game.    They might get shut out in the second half, or maybe only manage 3 more points, or whatever.   As it is, they scored pretty close to the expected TT, just under, so it’s not too surprising that the second half scoring didn’t match what they did in the first half.   I believe some call this “regression to the mean”

GL with future plays