Biscuit

Putting aide the “rigged” angle, I think you made 2 fundamental errors

1) you violated the “don’t take the worst of it” rule……you could’ve had Lions -2’ before the game started, why would you then lay -13 to the packers in game?  In Green Bay?   Especially considering that they can rally and close the deficit, since they are like #6 in PPG.   The only play worth consideration would’ve been packers +13 in game…..or pass on any in game action

2) this is not the NBA, where a team can be expected to score a certain number of points in a game.    In football, if a team scores 20 points in the first half, that doesn’t mean they are on track to score 40 in the full game.    They might get shut out in the second half, or maybe only manage 3 more points, or whatever.   As it is, they scored pretty close to the expected TT, just under, so it’s not too surprising that the second half scoring didn’t match what they did in the first half.   I believe some call this “regression to the mean”

GL with future plays 

FYI if you like JAX FG you might like

JAX 1Q +2’ -102

PHI is scoreless in 1Q this season

Eagles 1st qtr total pts scored this season (all by opponents)

6

0

3

14

0

0

7

I took 1Q Under 9’ -110

GL on your plays 

Falcons are ranked dead last in opponent completion percentage at 72.5%

I took Dak Over 274 pass yds +110

BOL

@ThirtyThree

 My guess is that some of it is pure chance……but some of it is because playing the Lions takes a lot out of a team.    Lions play physical, fast, and efficiently.    They are easily #1 in points per play differential.    To compete with them takes its toll on a team, physically and mentally, and it may be hard to duplicate the same effort and intensity in the next game.

GL on your plays 

Maybe they didn’t want to take action on that game because of what happens to teams the next game after they play the Lions?

0-6 SU + ATS

Rams +1 lose to Cards 41-10

Bucs -6 lose to Broncos 26-7

Cards -3’ lose to Commandos 42-14

Seahawks -7 lose to Giants 29-20

Cowboys +5’ lose to 49ers 30-24 (after bye)

Vikes -3 lose to Rams 30-20

Titans -3 vs Patriots ???

Browns missing 2 starting LBs and CB Wade hasn’t cleared CP yet so he may not play

OTOH Chark may get his first start, an X receiver who can stretch the field for the Bolts

it could be a tough spot for browns but BOL 

I took Rams -2 +102

I thought about taking K Williams rushing prop but the price was too high Over 90yds -120

however as a Ram Stafford is 4-0 vs Seahawks with an average 283 passing yards/game so I took Over 250+ yds +110

GL Biggs 

Bears LT injured in game, replacement is a turnstile, Caleb running for his life 

FG WAS -8’ -110

FG WAS - 15’ +260

GLTA

RUSHING + RECEIVING YDS

S BARKLEY 100+ -110

S BARKLEY 125+ +230

RUSHING YDS

J HURTS 40+ +110

RUSHING YDS

T POLLARD 80+ +145

RUSHING YDS

JK DOBBINS 90+ +140

LAC TT OVER 23’ +105

GLTA

saints have allowed avg 168 yds/ game rushing in last 3 games

for the season they’re ranked #30 allowing 5.2 yds per rush 

I took J Williams 50+ rushing yds +105

BOL 

did you ever happen to read a book that came out in the mid 50s called The Year the Yankees Lost the Pennant?    You’d like it.    It’s about Joe Boyd, a fat balding middle aged real estate salesman in Washington DC who is a diehard fan of the long struggling Senators team.    One June evening the Devil appears and offers a deal.    He will make Joe a superstar player that will lift his team out of the cellar and challenge the Yankees…….in exchange for his soul.    They agree to a 3 month temporary deal, at which time Joe can choose to make it permanent, or opt out.   Of course the way the timing plays out, it’s the end of September, the Yankees and Senators are tied, and Joe has to make his big decision.     They made a movie out of it called Damn Yankees, but it’s a musical I think, so I didn’t watch it.

in the book when Joe Boyd is transformed into the young star player he changes his name to Joe Hardy.   So whenever a young player appears in the pros and gets off to unbelievably hot start, like Jayden Daniels, it makes me wonder if he made a Joe Hardy type of deal lol

I really like packers here, last week I took them -13 on an alt line vs cards, maybe this week I’ll go with them -6

NFC North is the strongest division so far

combined records:

17-5 SU

17-4-1 ATS

All 4 teams are in top 9 defenses

Takeaways/game

1 packers

2 vikes

3 bears 

4 lions + saints (tie)

BOL 

CLE +5 sounds good, but haven’t looked closely at the games yet

Seahawks lead NFL in passing yards/game, but they’ve also lost 3 straight, and are a puny 1-4-1 ATS.    For all their recent talk about running more, maybe this week they’ll actually try to do that, which would favor the Under

At first glance I like the idea of CAR/WAS Under, but then again commandos are tied #2 points scored/game and panthers are dead last in points allowed, so might prefer a play on WAS TT Over

BOL

in the first 6 games with Rodgers Jets have scored 113 points total, exact same as first 6 games in 2023 with Zach Wilson

yeah no kidding 

Lions look Super

J Love looks like Ken Stabler Jr

Bears + Vikes with good D, they are #1 and #2 in opponent passer rating

I like Giants TT OVER 20’

Danny dimes last 4 games 6 TD 1 INT

G-men have scored between 20-29 in each of those games

BOL on your plays leventis 

on the plus side, Drake Maye tackles well after throwing an INT

Nice call on da Bears TT 

I’m still getting used to the fact that they have a legit QB for a change…..

good point

OTOH this is the first time Bears have played in London since 2019.

Jags play 1 or 2 games there every season since 2013 (except 2020 when no games were played there)

Geno having bad biorhythm day