Boisestateand8

It's messed up that we have two teams from the BIG in the Rose Bowl, and possibly the two best teams in the country! I'd rather see Ohio St. vs Texas in the Peach Bowl and Oregon playing ASU in the Rose. 

Having said that, gut says Ohio St., Texas, Georgia and ..............BOISE ST. (C'mon, who else am I gonna go with?) I'm actually attending my first Fiesta Bowl. Staying in Vegas on the way. Got a C note in my rainy day fund I might put on the money line! 

Merry Christmas to all!

Hey it's almost Christmas! Why don't you take a few days off from being a dick?

I don't like that two BIG teams are matched up in the Rose Bowl. Ohio St should be playing Texas in the Peach and ASU should be playing Oregon in the Rose. That's the only problem I have with the format. And in hindsight, I STILL don't have a problem with SMU and Indiana getting in to the CFP. Both teams earned their shot. I doubt that ANY SEC team, used to warm weather, would've fared any better at Notre Dame, Penn St. or Ohio St. in subfreezing temps. That's my story and I'm sticking with it. 

I'm done betting for the year, but SMU is the only team in the playoffs with a negative turnover differential. That certainly showed up in the first half! I don't see a second half comeback in these weather conditions for the warm weather Mustangs. 

Tennessee -Ohio St. looks like a defensive slobberknocker. Not sure the Buckeyes have recovered from the Michigan meltdown. 

Done with betting for the year, but for what it's worth here are my takes on the three playoff games today.

PENN ST. (-8, down from -8') vs Smu - Seems like a big number, but with temps in the 20s and wind chill in the teens, I can't help but recall how UNLV and Tulane played at cold weather venues in their respective conference title games. Also, the Mustangs are the only team in the playoffs with a minus turnover differential, and while it's hard to handicap turnovers it seems likely that the Nittany Lions will win the turnover battle here. Feels like a 27-13 kinda game, with Penn St. pounding the rock down SMU's throat, and keeping that high powered Mustang offense on the sidelines.

TEXAS (-13', up from -11) vs Clemson - Longhorns have only lost twice, both times against Georgia. Dabo is 6-2 ATS as a postseason dog, but this isn't the same Clemson team as in years past. Texas is no guarantee though when laying doubles. 

OHIO ST. (-7, down from -7') vs Tennessee - Another cold weather game, which favors the more physical team. That's not necessarily the home team Buckeyes though. We haven't seen them since they lost to Michigan as a three TD favorite. Not sure they've recovered from that. This one has all the makings of a defensive slobberknocker. Feels like a 24-17 type game.

BOL to all and Merry Christmas! Cheers! 

Maybe. But what would this line be if Dak Prescott were playing? I only ask because his QBR is about the same as Cooper Rush's. Rush has a lower completion percentage, but hasn't been as interception prone. Cowboys have also found their run game, Bucs are on the road again...........I'm done betting for the season, after one of my worst years in 40 years of doing this, but IF I were betting it, I'd be on Dallas +4.

Not an addiction, friend. Never have I had a problem walking away. I love handicapping, but the game has changed over the years, especially with the transfer portal and NIL. There's so much to keep track of nowadays. Plus, I've lost what I could afford to lose, and I have a Fiesta Bowl to attend! 

I wish it would've been more useful to me! 

I'm not questioning Notre Dame's talent. They COULD do to Indiana what Ohio St. did. But this Hoosier team is the best they've faced all year, including Texas A&M. If the weather forecast holds true, with snow and cold in the forecast, that negates any talent advantage. Crap weather is the great equalizer for teams that are used to playing in it.

Folks, I'm pulling the plug on this season. Gambling on football is a game of skill, but there's a certain amount of luck involved, and this year my luck has been mostly shitty. You can look at the Xs and Os until you're blue in the face, but you can't handicap turnovers, QB injuries, bad calls, etc. I've picked some clunkers this year for sure, but I've had more bad beats this year than any year I can remember, and I've been doing this for 40 years! Bottom line, it's no fun when you repeatedly get your brains bashed in, so I'm closing the book on this season. Last night's WKU loss was the last straw. BOL to you all for the rest of the year. 

I kinda like em for the whole game. Cignetti's playoff experience with JMU could be a factor, and this is Notre Dame's toughest test yet! Indy tends to start fast and finish strong. Wouldn't shock me to see them win outright.

It's been miserable year for me picking winners, maybe my worst ever! But here goes....

3* Western Kentucky +7' over James Madison - Writeup is on my other thread. BOL to all.

Friday

Cure Bowl in Orlando FL 

Ohio (-4', up from -2') vs Jacksonville St. - Battle of conference champions. Jax St. won the C-USA title with a 52-12 rout of WKU and then saw HC Rich Rodriguez leave for West Virginia. Ohio blasted Miami OH, 38-3, to win the MAC championship, and then HC Tim Albin left to coach Charlotte. Both teams will be coached by their OCs in this one, and both teams feature strong run games, AND both teams come in hot. The Gamecocks have won nine of their last ten (7-3 ATS) after a 0-3 start, while the Bobcats are on a 6-0 SU, ATS and ITS run, winning each game by at least 17 points. As for the transfer portal, Ohio's roster seems to be virtually intact, despite the coaching change, as opposed to Jax St. which suffered some losses. Hence the line movement towards Ohio U.

Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa FL 

Florida (-13', up from -11') vs Tulane - Two teams headed in opposite directions. Gators finished the season strong, winning three straight, and have covered eight of their last nine games, earning Billy Napier a contract extension after he spent much of the season on the hot seat. The Green Wave were in the CFP conversation until a shocking 34-24 loss at home to Memphis, and then were routed at West Point in the AAC title game. While Tulane was able to hold on to HC Jon Sumrall, they weren't as fortunate hanging on to their QBs, with starter Darian Mensah and backup Kai Horton both hitting the portal, among others. Florida looks like the right side here, but I loathe laying double digits in bowl games.

1st round CFP

NOTRE DAME (-7, down from -7') vs Indiana - Cold temps and snow are in the forecast for this battle of one loss teams. Hoosiers HC Curt Cignetti knows a thing or two about playoff games, having been in a number of them during his time at JMU. Indiana was on cruise control for the first nine games of the season, before struggling to a 20-15 win over Michigan and being blown out at Ohio St. 38-15. The Fighting Irish are on a 10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS run, but this is by far the toughest test the Irish will have faced all year, at least since the opener at Texas A&M. The Hoosiers generally start fast and finish strong, and Cignetti's playoff experience could give them a significant advantage. I'm leaning Indiana in this one.

BOL Mac! 

Wow, UNLV is now -3.  Gonna have to pass on that one. But WKU +7' has got my attention, mainly because of HC Tyson Helton's 4-1 bowl record, and JMU missing their starting QB. Hilltoppers have a lot of kids in the portal though. Who's playing and who isn't playing is the question. Lean WKU at this number.

Thursday 

New Orleans Bowl

Georgia Southern (-6, up from -5) vs Sam Houston - Another instance where i might've jumped all over the dog if it was a regular season game. But with HC K.C. Keeler leaving for Temple, and the ensuing transfer portal chaos with the Bearkats, AND the fact that their offense has disappeared during the latter half of the season makes them unplayable in my opinion. The Eagles aren't bad. Throwing out the loss to Ole Miss, they're 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS vs G5 bowl teams. However, they're 0-2 as bowl chalk the last two years under Clay Helton.

Good info, but some of these portal kids may actually play in their bowl game. Important to watch the line movements. UNLV line has flipped to Rebels -2. 

Very possible. Only problem I have with those stats is the difference in the level of competition. WVU has played the far tougher schedule. And even though Rich Rod isn't coaching this game, the players MAY be inspired to impress their new coach. Tough call.

@Coloneljim

Wednesday

Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton FL 

James Madison (-6') vs Western Kentucky - HC Tyson Helton sports a 4-1 record in bowl games with the Hilltoppers, but his team currently has about two dozen players in the portal. QB Caden Veltkamp is one of those, but is apparently going to play. But other than that it's anybody's guess who is playing and who isn't. One player who ISN'T likely to play is Dukes QB Alonza Barnett III, who was injured in the finale vs Marshall. Bowl experience and success definitely favors WKU, but there are too many unknowns here to make an educated wager.

LA Bowl in Inglewood, CA 

California (pk, down from -2') vs UNLV - If this game was a regular season game I'd be all over the Rebels here, but a couple of things give me pause. First is the departure of HC Barry Odom, who has done a tremendous job during his two year run in Vegas. Secondly, I have to wonder about a letdown here, having to settle for this bowl after losing their shot at the CFP a week and a half ago with the loss to Boise. Still, the team is largely intact with all the key players expected to play, which says a lot! The Golden Bears finished the season with a whimper, losing to Syracuse and SMU, and barely surviving Stanford. In the 38-6 loss to the Mustangs, soph QB Fernando Mendoza didn't play due to illness, and since then has entered the transfer portal along with leading receiver Nyziah Hunter. Also, Bryan Harsin takes over as offensive coordinator, reuniting with Justin Wilcox. Both coached under Chris Peterson at Boise. Slight lean to UNLV here for now.