ChaseReamer

Well Duke let us down yesterday.  We have lost all 7 teaser/parlay's by 1 team, but that's the game with these types of bets. Gonna throw some NIT games in today.

North Texas vs. Sam Houston St. U129 (-476)

As you should know by now I'm not a fan of playing O/U's as you lose 1/2ish the value you get in terms of these bets. With that said this is one of those instances where I will play the total.  Both of these teams play slow 323rd and 363rd (dead last) in terms of tempo.  These defenses are also top tier as they rank 15th and 28th in defensive efficiency.   In both teams last 9 games, they have gone 8-1 (SHS) and 6-3 (NT) against this number, but this will be the best defense either have played during those stretches.  I think both teams will struggle to hit 60 in this game.

Florida Atlantic -5.5 (-526) vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

Fairleigh Dickinson didn't win the game against Purdue, Purdue lost it.  Edey went 7/11 from the field while the rest of the team went 12-42 (28.6%) and they shot 5/26 from deep (19.2%).  FAU has multiple options that can produce and shoot the 3-ball well.  FAU played 9 teams ranked 200 or worse and won by an average of 21.6 points.  Give me the Owls and lay the points to end FD's Cinderella story.

Pittsburgh vs Xavier Over 135 (-476)

Another O/U pick. I know the trend is the under so far in the tournament but both of these teams score.  These teams rank 7th (Xavier) and 27th (Pitt) in offensive efficiency.  The spread has already dropped 5 points from where vegas pegged it originally.  Both of Pitts games in the tourney so far were low scoring while Xavier was over this number in their first matchup.  But leading up to the tournament, in their last 10, Xavier went 8-2 against this number (Villanova, Marquette) and Pitt went 9-0-1 (push to BC, where BC only scored 58).  I think this number hits relatively easily despite the current unders trend we are seeing.

TCU +13.5 (-588) vs. Gonzaga 

TCU's defense and Gonzaga's lack of defense should keep this game close. TCU played 14 top 25 teams this year and would've covered 11 of those by this number, while Gonzaga played 8 teams ranked in the top 25 and their opponents all covered this number with the exception of their last game against Saint Mary's. 

Betting Odds:+100  Bet 1.25 Units to win 1.25 Units

So Purdue did the unthinkable and lost. This honestly maybe be the biggest upset in CBB in the last decade, IMO. No time for a big write up but here’s what I have today.

Alabama ML (-435) vs Maryland

Maryland shouldn’t be able to handle Alabama and Maryland has been hot and cold this season. Even if they are hot today I don’t think it’s enough to knock of the Tide.

Kansas +6.5 (-500) vs Arkansas

Getting Kansas plus at least 2 buckets seems like as safe of a bet as you can have at this point in the tourney.

Duke +8.5 (-666) vs Tennessee 

This should be a low scoring game if Tennessee is to have a chance. Duke is hot and Tennessee is poor offensively, even more so without Ziegler. I’ll take the points and the hotter team.

UCLA +3.5 (-625) vs Northwestern

I thought UCLA would be an afterthought with their injuries but so far I was wrong. I’ll take the basket and the Bruins.

Betting Odds: -102     Bet 1.02 Units to win 1 Unit

I believe if you did this last year you would've finished up around $1100 but that's why I want to track it.  

@vanzack

 Like vanzack said you only need to win a couple, yea its probably a waste to bet the 16's but you are getting 20 to 1 on those. If you hit that off the get go you are almost sure to be in big profit after betting the rest of the tournament, heck that would pay for 20 of the losses.  

@PublicJoe

 Nothing is safe. its a bet, and one during tournament time.  But I would argue that Purdue is the safest bet on this list.  

I'm gonna try and track this for the entire tournament.  Seen that this is profitable. Betting ML for all underdogs. (Gonna use FanDuel as the book) Using $100 bets.

Day 1

Maryland +114 WINNER +$114

Furman +184 WINNER +$184

Missouri +102 WINNER +$102

Howard +2000 LOSER -$100

Texas A&M CC +2400 LOSER -$100

Charleston +210 LOSER -$100

Princeton +890 WINNER $+890

Illinois +115 LOSER -$100

Iowa +102 LOSER -$100

Oral Roberts +202 LOSER -$100

Boise St. +115 LOSER -$100

Colgate +660 LOSER -$100

Lafayette +580 LOSER -$100

Northern Kentucky +1600 LOSER -$100

UNC Asheville +1280 LOSER -$100

Penn State +125 WINNER +$125

Profit $315  Record 5-9

@Contrarian21

 I wasn't done posting and it posted on its own.  I wasn't done, are you feeling ok.  Or do you just like to get on here and be rude on a post.  I'm here posting profitable winners and have more negative comments than positive.  If you read a post and it seems dumb just move on and don't be an a**.

Should've just stuck with my "Teaser of the Day" as we lost both the 2 seed teaser and 10 seed teaser by one team. But still made profit with our "Teaser of the Day" hitting.

Marquette ML (-625) vs. Vermont

After Arizona lost yesterday, this is a bet on history, only once in the history of March Madness have two 15 seeds beaten a 2 seed (2012). Based off history, the chances of this happening are 2.7%. With Marquette being the last 2 seed to play, this is a bet that this won't be the second year that this has ever happened.  

Drake +10.5 (-500) vs. Miami

I waivered on this pick and ultimately landed on Drake.  With that said, Miami only lost one game by more than 8 this year, and that was an early season game against Maryland by 18.  Their other losses were by 6, 2, 2, 3, 1, and 7.  Drake plays close games as well as they only lost 2 games this year by double digits.  So between the teams 11/14 games were decided by single digits or less.  This should be a pseudo-home game for Drake.  I'll take the double digits in what I think will be a close game throughout.

Creighton +5.5 (-555) vs. NC St.

In my opinion, Creighton should've been at least a 5 seed and maybe even a 4. The fact that they lost 12 games landed them where they ended up, but 6 of their 12 losses were against ranked teams and the others could be considered quality losses.  They should have the advantage in most categories and I don't think NC State is as good as they are projected.  They lost 4 of their last 7 with only one of those being to a team that made the tournament.  Creighton is 4-4 in their last 8 but all are tournament teams with the exception of Villanova. Give me the team that should've been a higher see against a team I don't think should be in the tourney at all... and the points.

Purdue -11.5 (-526) vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

This goes back to my post "Teasing the 1's", since 2010, in the 47 wins by #1 seeds, only 3 of the wins have been by less than 10 points.  And since 2015 all their wins have been by 11 or more (this was 14 until Houston won by only 11 yesterday).  This is the largest disparity on the board for the entire tournament in terms of KP ranking (7 vs. 312).  Fairleigh Dickinson literally played the 2nd easiest schedule in all of college basketball and only managed 19 wins.  FD's best win was against the 191st ranked team and they have 12 losses against teams ranked 200th or worse.  The biggest thing in this game will be Zach Edey, Purdue are in the 92nd percentile in FG% at the rim and FD rank in the 7th percentile in defensive FG% at the rim.  I would imagine Edey could have 30+ points in this game and will eat them alive.

Betting Odds: -102       Bet 1.02 Units to win 1 Unit

Should've just stuck with my "Teaser of the Day" as we lost both the 2 seed teaser and 10 seed teaser by one team. But still made profit with our "Teaser of the Day" hitting.

Marquette ML (-625) vs. Vermont

Taking all the 2 seeds and 10 seeds in respective Teasers:

Arizona Wildcats (-4.5)-555

Texas Longhorns (-3.5)-588

UCLA Bruins (-6.5)-588

Marquette Golden Eagles (-2.5)-476

Betting Odds -105  Bet .53 Units to win .5 Units

Well learned my lesson yesterday, avoid the NIT.  Teams motivation is always in question.

Kansas -11.5 (-476) vs. Howard

If you saw my write-up "Teasing the #1's" this should come as no surprise, but I will reiterate a thing or two.  Since the 2016 tournament, with the exception of the Virginia loss, no #1 seed has won by less than 15 points. So in wins this has hit 100% of the time since 2016 (really dating back to the 2015 tournament, but this is when the shot clock changed which is when I think better teams got more of an advantage).  During that span the average margin of victory for a 1 seed is just over 26 points. Kansas has only played 3 teams in the area of Howard this year in terms of KP.  Omaha, North Dakota St., and Texas Southern, they won those games 89-64, 82-59, and 87-55.  That's an average margin of victory of just under 27 points.  Howard, on the other hand, has only played 3 teams inside the top 100.  Those teams were Kentucky, Yale, and VCU. They lost all 3 by scores of 95-63, 86-40, 70-60. The average margin of defeat is right at 26, and none of those teams are as good as Kansas.  Take the Jayhawks and lay the points, they should win by 15 at minimum.

Alabama -13.5 (-454) vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christie

Pretty much the same premises as above.  21 out of TAMCC's 23 wins came when they scored 75 or more points.  I don't think they hit that mark today.  They played 3 games against teams inside the top 47; Mississippi St., Arizona, and Oklahoma St.  They lost those games 63-44, 99-61 and 81-58, losing by an average of just over 31.  They also haven't played a top 200 opponent since starting league play.  TAMCC also is in the 93rd percentile in % of FG attempts at the rim but only 32nd percentile in FG% at the rim.  Alabama ranks in the 100th percentile in defensive FG% allowed at the rim.  And while they are 38th in 3pt% again Alabama's 3rd ranked defense should help keep that in check as well.  Alabama's defense should hold them in check and win this going away.

Houston -6.5 (-666) vs. Northern Kentucky

Bought down a little bit more since this projects to be a low scoring game, but again a 1 seed.  25 of Houston's 31 wins have been by 6.5 or more (and of their other 6 wins, 3 were by 6 exactly and 2 were by 5.  Those teams to keep it under 6 were ranked (KP), 14, 55, 63, 78, 153.  The instance of the 153rd ranked team saw Houston give up the most points it's allowed all season at 77.  The Norse have hit 77 or more on 9 occasions this year, the highest ranked opponent in which they achieved this number was 132, against Youngstown St.  Every other time they were able to accomplish this was against a team ranked 200 or worse.  Looking at the last 12 tournaments (back to 2010), the #1's are 47-1, All but 1 of the 47 wins have come by 7 or more points. Houston should, historically, easily cover this number.

Duke +4.5 (555) vs. Oral Roberts

I'm not sure where the notion is coming from that Duke could lose this game, maybe its because everyone hates Duke and I'm one of them, but I don't see it.  Oral Roberts has won 17 in a row but the best ranked team during that span was 160th (South Dakota St.).  They do hold a win against a solid 89th ranked Liberty team but their next best win after that is against Missouri St. at 147th. Duke's only losses (8) were to teams ranked 86th or better and 5 losses were to top 44 teams.  But in the off chance that Oral Roberts can do something they haven't done all year we've got 4.5 to the good.

Betting Odds: -102    1.28 units to win 1.25 units

I saw a system that was posted:

Neutral site game

Game is in March

Total of 145 or more

<60% of the bets (bets not money) on Under

Its going for its 7th straight winning season and here are the ROI's during that span

2016-2017 10.2%

2017-2018 8.5%

2018-2019 1.9%

2019-2020 19.1%

2020-2021 9%

2021-2022 5.7%

Averages about 9% return.

Not a lot of action today and not a lot of time for write ups... but I'll be running this today

Clemson -5.5 (-555) vs. Morehead St.

Home game for the Tigers, I don't think the 247th ranked KP team goes on the road and keeps it close against the 63rd ranked team and keeps it close.

North Texas -6.5 (-555) vs. Alcorn St.

Same premise as the above situation, only concern is how North Texas plays, but in their last 8/9 wins they would've covered this number and all those teams were better than Alcorn St.

Oklahoma St. +4.5 (-526) @ Youngstown St.

Youngstown St. gets this game at home but they haven't played anyone near as difficult as Oklahoma St. I think Oklahoma St.'s defense should be able to slow down Youngstown St. and they should be able to win this handily.

Nevada +10.5 (-476) vs. Arizona St. (neutral)

I like Nevada to win this game and think they matchup well against Arizona St.  Give me the Wolfpack to keep it within double digits in what should be a relatively low scoring game

Betting Odds: +100  Bet .75 unit to win .75 unit

@DawgHollywood

 Yea I wish they had the cliffnote version that could just tell me who to pick. haha

@Footballbiker

 That's awesome too.

Hey guys we can solve this with math... if the average ML for a #1 seed is -5000 and you bet all 148... you would be up about 94 units.  The only problem is this would have taken 37 years so you would've averaged about 2.5 units per year and that one time you lose will suck. But to say this is a useless dumb strategy is kind of dumb in itself.  Blindly being able to place 4 bets once a year that takes all of a minute and historically you would've gotten 2.5% return is pretty good IMO.

Any fellow nerds out there who want to sift through 243 pages of March Madness knowledge, check this out.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/p680kv7ldjnob9w/2023%20NCAA%20Tournament%20Guide%20-%20%40Matteise.pdf?dl=0

Credit: Matteise (twitter)

Ok so I decided to try and dig into the 7/10's (and 8/9's maybe a post later) to see if there was any historical data that might help us make some money.  I used the tournaments from 2011-2021 (10 tournaments).  If you read my post yesterday I stated the shot clock as a reasoning for pinpointing the post 2015 seasons, I won't do that in this case as the 7/10 as there isn't a huge disparity in the level of the two teams. Ok so let's get into it.  

In the tournaments from 2011 through 2021:

The 7 seed is 25-14 (64.1 win %) (no contest for Oregon vs VCU, 2021)

Of the 7 seeds 14 losses, 10 occurred when that team scored less than 65 points (71.4%)

For the 15 seeds, 9 of their 14 wins have come when they have scored 70 or more points (64.2%)

Of the 25 wins, the 7 seeds' have only won 6 games by double digits. All have actually been 15+ in those 6 wins.  Every other win has been by 8 or fewer points.  

-I think this is a crazy stat that in 39 games there hasn't been one instance where the winning margin for the 7 seed was between 9-14 points, considering how close these teams should be to one another. 

Since the 2016 tournament (19 games) the 7's are only 11-8 and have only won 2 games by double digits.

So as was expected these games seem to be a toss up with the edge going to the 7's but less of an edge as of recent times.  If one were to simply tease all the 10's to +8.5 points, they would have covered in 33/39 games (84.6%) of the matchups since 2011. 

Another interesting note is that in these 6 games, either the 7 seed scored 84 or more points or the 10 seed scored 55 or less. .

Since the 2015 tournament, that percentage grows to 91.3% (21/23 games) and in both of the games that the 8.5 was covered since 2015, the 7 seeds that won had 84 and 93 points.  With the exception of Missouri none of these teams throw up points in that range on a regular basis. Although, I will be teasing all the 10's, if there is one of these that would concern me it would be the Missouri game. I may omit that one from the tease and add another, but Utah St. is no slouch themselves in terms of offense.  Nonetheless, I will list all the potential tease values. 

This years 7/10's and current spread:

7 Michigan St. vs. 10 USC (+2) -> USC +10.5 (-500)

7 Texas A&M vs. 10 Penn St. (+3) -> Penn St. +12.5 (-588)

7 Northwestern vs. 10 Boise St. (+1.5) -> Boise St. +10.5 (-526)

7 Missouri vs. 10 Utah St. (-1.5) -> Utah St. +8.5 (-476)

Betting Odds +102

@CaridadDelCobre

 Thanks man I appreciate it. I enjoy doing write ups just hoping it can make us some money as well.

@dubz4dummyz

 I found a site that had a lot of good info like this. I import into google sheets and sort that way. The site is boydbets it has a lot of good stuff to look at on there.

@UNIMAN

 That includes the time before the shot clock change so no I wouldn’t think to would be a good bet at -106 but since the change to 30 seconds they are 27-1 and all by 14+. So if a 1 has won since 2015 they hit the number 100% of the time. Like I said would’ve hit in 6 out of the last 7 tournaments only losing one because of Virginia losing. I’m not saying this can’t be the year it loses again but a bet at around even money that is hitting at 85% seems a good bet to me.