combato

@DrStrangelove

 I checked the updated injury list for BC.   Lots of injuries to starters at BC.   BC has much better an analytics this season than Pitt but I think PItt opened at -1 and went as high as -3 ( somebody betting on the obviously inferior analytic team is a huge red light for me).

Love your stuff Strangelove.   Keep 'em coming.

@SquareLove

 I suspect that Hoo has a much bigger following than most of us suspect.   I have been a quiet follower for years and I suspect there are quite a few more, just like me.  

For many years (30 +), I have tried to follow money flows in betting in conjunction with line movement.  As Hoo has suggested, obtaining good data is usually a tipping point and was hard to find for many years.   I actually only use Hoo's data in regard to ticket number and handle number plus his analysis on what is "sharp action".   Not sure if lopsided wagering is that significant but I could be wrong here because I may not understand the subtleties.  I am also intrigued by "SKS" which seems to be one of the stronger Hoo plays.   Anyway, keep up the good work Hoo Alum.  It is much appreciated.

@td33mvp

 Your stuff is very similar to my own approach which is to do a deep market read in addition to more traditional approach with CFB analytics.

I have noticed that when your stuff lines up with my own, the results are in the 60 - 62 pct range ATS.

I have decided to abandon my own much cruder approach to reading the market and replace it with your stuff and keep my analytic based component.

IF you ever decide to go commercial, please keep in the loop.  Your stuff is much too valuable to be giving away.

@DrStrangelove

 My only concern here is Baylor.  They were bitch slapped last week.  Always a danger of them "rising" to the occasion.  Utah QB rising may not play according to ESPN.   Also, this a west coast team playing an early 11:00 game.  Utah Coach is a tough SOB and should have his team ready.  Line is Utah -7 right now.  Tough game.

For what its worth, Pre Game is always identical to Bet Online.  Bet Online is a major book and I suspect is fairly representative of the market at large which is what you want.

@TrainCocknToast

 Good call on LSU.  You only failed to cover by about 20 pts or so.  I love fading the Covers squares.  Thank for the free money

@TrainCocknToast

 Good call on LSU.  You only failed to cover by about 20 pts or so.  I love fading the Covers squares.  Thank for the free money

@HooAlum

 Love your stuff -I use it to check my own work.  Right now, the only diff we have is I like Fresno over Purdue and I prefer a small play on Florida St.

@HooAlum

 Reviewing your info for a few games

Purdue - this definitely looks like RLM to me. Purdue clearly has 54 to 58% edge in tickets and cash.  But the line movement from open to present has moved from -6.5 to -4 which would indicate RLM money on Fresno (Dog).  We would seem to be in agreement here except I am leaning strongly to Fresno.  Rare to see a road dog get this much action early.

LSU - Using Sports Action Network as a source, it shows LSU leading in both tickets and cash (66% and 57%).  But line movement from open to current has gone from LSU +1 to LSU -2.5 or -2.   To me, this looks like a pure public play on FSU.  Whenever I see tickets and cash >50% and line is moving with the ticket/cash on a high profile game like this one, then that points to the dog in my approach.   Curious what you think about this.

@HooAlum

 Do you think this approach has validity in college hoops?

@steponaduck

 Well said Duck.  It's just the way it is.  Has been for many years.

Two game that is shaping up as good contrarian play on favorite for week 1.  Clemson -13 vs Duke - Normally, I would expect this game to be approximately 70% tickets on Clemson.  But instead, the ticket count is only 55% on Clemson.  At first glance, this tells me there is an unusual amount of action on underdog Duke.  Lean Clemson but I have much more to look at before game time.

Same exact situation exists on TCU

I rarely bet on favorites because favorites are generally where the the public money will end up.  But so far, not on these 2 games.

One thing I forgot to mention.  The more the public likes a game, the stronger the play.  Go back through any records you may have and verify.  I like to limit my public fades to games between roughly equivalent teams (P5 vs P5, G5 vs G5).  I like to avoid double digits lines but this is based on my own personal bias.  

@jimrockford22

 I understand the question you are raising.  I have been a market reading capper for at least 20 years.  If you have ever studied contrarian investing, it is impossible for the public to win in the long run.  If it were possible, all sports betting would have shut down years ago if the public betting was sharp. Obviously, the public can win in the very short run or even a few high profile games.  But the best long term strategy is to always fade the public.  As you know, the difficult part is knowing which side the public is actually liking.  Every year, there is always one or two weekends when the public cleans up but invariably square-ness reasserts itself.   I don't think a bettor can win big by only fading the public but it is a great starting point to isolate which games to play every weekend

@Vegas11787

 I believe that SC is now up to +3 at several shops and I look for this line to stay at 3, maybe even 3.5.  Public loves UNC because D. Maye the QB is a phenomenal player.  But that defense, coached by Gene Chizek, is really really bad.   I love SC in this spot getting 3 points.

@alopez14325

 Texas has one major weakness on defense and that is at edge rusher.  They are using different players in camp this year to find the best combination.  They may end up using Anthony Hill, 5* linebacker from Denton, as a situational pass rusher.  If Texas D can fix this issue, they will be very tough to beat.

@steponaduck

 Penn St is loaded but Brown is on the hot seat at West Va.  PSU -21 seems uncomfortably large even with considering the talent gap between PSU and Wva.  I will be passing on this one.

@steponaduck

Brad Powers is from Kentucky and attended Bowling Green with a degree in Journalism. 

 I have no idea where Joey Knish went.

@steponaduck

 You might also consider "Best on the Board" podcast from The Athletic

I love BBOC with Collin and Stuckey and consider this one to be top of the line

VSIN - Those guys just seem like a bunch of cheapo touts to me so I never listen anymore.  Only so many hours in a week to spend listening to podcasts.

Bet The Board - Decent but not my first stop.

Hit the Books - I would consider this to be my second stop after BBOC.   Pretty good with Brad Powers but I can barely stand to listen to Joey Knish.  He is a decent capper but that annoying voice is almost too much to bear.

@steponaduck

 You might also consider "Best on the Board" podcast from The Athletic

I love BBOC with Collin and Stuckey and consider this one to be top of the line

VSIN - Those guys just seem like a bunch of cheapo touts to me so I never listen anymore.  Only so many hours in a week to spend listening to podcasts.

Bet The Board - Decent but not my first stop.

Hit the Books - I would consider this to be my second stop after BBOC.   Pretty good with Brad Powers but I can barely stand to listen to Joey Knish.  He is a decent capper but that annoying voice is almost too much to bear.