earthWake

Last year before Miami went on their 9-1 run they played a PATHETIC game on Thursday night at Cincy. (that put them at 1-3). I'm going to hope what I saw Sunday was just that. I obviously have faith will find the answers. I still truly believe Matt Moore is the best QB on the dolphins roster but its not fair to give up on Cutler after 1 bad game. Moore did put up 30+ vs Bills, 30+ vs Jets and moved the ball well vs Pittsburgh in the playoffs.

Sunday was ugly, but its one game of 16. The Jets game out and played extremely hard, motivated football. The dolphins showed up and went through the motions. 

Sundays game will be very interesting. Adam Gase is not going to accept what happened last week. With that being said it might be a blessing if the dolphins comeout and look the same way on offense. Gase will have no choice but to turn to Moore sooner than later. 

The Dolphins are still a year away from contending for a championship, but this yeam has 10-6 potential and a first round knockout.

Dolphins could comeout and dominate this game or lose 38-17. Neither would surprise me, but I have faith in Adam Gase.

no play 

I have no idea what Adam Gase said to the Dolphins team last year when they were 1-4 and 8 point dogs at home to the Steelers.

I dont think I've seen a team play that hard in my life, and it started a 9-2 run to end the season. He is an elite coach, this I am sure of

Goodluck betting on them or against them. Both will be very stressfull and exciting.

Still at Dolphins being ranked 25th team in the NFL and under 7.5.

Adam Gase is the best coach you don't know about yet. 

When Tannehill got hurt last year I had zero faith in Matt Moore. I thought he was a guy who could go in win one game but could never have any real success. He impressed me A LOT last year and I know he can lead this team to a 8-10 win season....but he is not Ryan Tannehill.

All I know is that Adam Gase is a VERY smart coach. They might bring in Jay Cutler, or possible even Kap...However this is Matt Moore's team now. He is definitely their best option, hands down. Even if they do bring in Cutler, his leash will be extremely short, and Moore will ultimately start.

Needless to say this sucks. A lot. This team can still have a good season, but only if the rest of the team steps up. Matt Moore can win you games, but he can't cover up for flaws like Tannehill can.

The Dolphins can certainly win with Damian Williams as the RB but there is no sugar coating the fact the Dolphins are a better team with Ajayi. Hopefully he heals fast and is ready for Week 1.

Anyway. Here is how I think the dolphins season will go. Its very situation dependent because of injuries, but here is my best educated guess.

TB: w (1-0)

@Chargers: w (2-0)

@Jets w (3-0)

Saints (london) L (3-1)

Tenn w (4-1)

@atl L (4-2)

nyj w (5-2)

@balt L (5-3)

oak w (6-3)

@NE L (6-4)

den w (7-4)

Ne w (8-4)

@buf L (9-5)

@kc L (9-6)

buf w (10-6)

Sure, I have Miami beating NE and Oakland, which might not happen. I would also bet A LOT of money that the Dolphins win atleast 1 if not 2 of the games I have predicted they lose (No,balt,Ne,buf,kc,atl). Miami will definitely be in the 8-10 win range with definite possibilities of hitting 11-12. It is going to be a fun season. The Dolphins have 3 primetime games in a row week 8,9,10. Keep an eye out 

Jay Ajayi (90)

Jarvis Landry (90)

Cam Wake (88)

Mike Pouncey (88)

Laremy Tunsil (85)

Byron Maxwell (85)

Devante Parker (85)

Kiko Alonso (82)

The Dolphins can sustain injuries to one, maybe even two of these players. But if they start losing more than that the season could possibly become affected badly.

Now think about them going 10-6 last year missing A LOT of those players above.

So I come back to talk to you about what else, the Miami Dolphins. I was going to do a very long write up and tell you every single thing about the Dolphins, but there is no point. I'm not here to convince everyone who reads this how great the Dolphins will be. I'm here to let the people who respect my opinion (however few that is) know how I feel about this team. There is so much money to be made on this team, I highly recommend you take advantage 

So I will keep this very short, and to the point. Why are the dolphins going to be very good this season? Two words.

Talent and depth. Now your opinion of the Miami Dolphins right now is probably "They got lucky to go 10-6, and got killed in the playoffs they were a fluke." If you look into this deeper you can easily see its not true. Heres why.

1. They were 1-4 at one point (while Ajayi was on the bench) and went on a 9-1 stretch. You don't go on a 9-1 stretch in the NFL with luck alone.

2. They did it without arguably their best player on defense (reshad jones) their #1 Corner missed the last 6 games or so (Maxwell). They played the whole season basically without Mike Pouncey, and ofcourse Ryan Tannehill missed the last 5 games. Simply getting these players back will add so much without the depth they added in the off-season. 

3. Their D-line speaks for itself, but that got improved by taking a DE in the first round. I have always been concerned with their LB, but really like the unit now with Alonso and Timmons and LB drafted in 2nd round. 

4. To me in the NFL you can't win without good CBs. You just can't in a pass happy league. I am really happy with the dolphins secondary. Reshad Jones, Byron Maxwell, Xavien Howard, Tony Lippett, Nate Allen, TJ Mcdonald (susp first 8 games) and a CB drafted in the 3rd round...Michael Thomas who started at safety the last 12 games is now the 3rd string. Talent and Depth.

5. The Dolphins offense is loaded with talent. Ajayi had 3 games over 200 yards rushing last year, and the WR team of Landry-Parker-Stills is top 5 to me and undeniably top 10. If Julius Thomas does ANYTHING for this team their offense could average 28 points a game. They also have a secret weapon who is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Damian Williams. If there is one player on the dolphins who you should know about but don't, its him. His highlight reel from last year for the Dolphins looks like Reggie Bush at USC.

6. Coaching. Adam Gase simply put is the man. Only time will tell but I know he will be the future of the Miami Dolphins. The players LOVE him, but he is a hardass. The moment I realized is when the Dolphins were 1-4, and playing at home vs Pittsburgh...I actually bet a lot of money on the Steelers. They were -7 or so I believe. I was ready to give up on the dolphins and Tannehill. Their season was over. Then something happen. The Dolphins came out with more energy and passion then I've ever seen in my life. My friends had been ripping me all week, and I agreed the Dolphins kinda sucked. 5 minutes into that game, I texted my friend and said the Dolphins are actually going to win this game. I was sure of it. Thats how much passion and energy they showed that game from the opening kickoff. Watch the highlights of that game and see. That was game 1 of their 9-1 stretch.

7. Last but not least, how can you talk about the Fins without Ryan Tannehill. Now, like you last year when the Dolphins lost to the Titans and were 1-4 I was ready. I was so close to giving up on Tannehill after years of defending him. My brother gave up after that game, and I was so close but I didn't...Wow, am I glad I didnt. He showed me something the next 10 weeks that sold me 100%. He went 7-1, and threw for 12tds and 2 ints in those 7 wins. (He sucked vs Baltimore in the loss, but any Dolphins fan knows the Ravens OWN miami. Always will. Flacco is 7-0 career vs Miami) More importantly, something everyone has been waiting for happened. The  went on. It happened week 11 vs the Rams. The dolphins were down 10-0 with 6 minutes left, and then Tannehill put together a TD drive and then one of the best game winning drives I've ever seen. Watch the highlights from that game to see what I'm talking about if you want. The light flashed on. Then the next week he threw 300yards 3tds vs SF, (insert ravens game. where he played well. 30-40 but 3ints because of tipped passes and the Ravens owning Miami and needing to throw every down.) Then he threw for 200 yards in 3tds in the first half vs Arizona....Then hurt his ACL....Now I know you probably don't believe me that the light flashed on, but if you want to have a serious talk about Ryann Tannehill. Watch the highlights from the Rams game, the Chargers game, and any random game from the 2nd half of the season and tell me Ryan Tannehill isn't a top 15 QB...Really catches a lot of hate for how tough he is, and throwing for almost 20k yards 106td and 80ints in five years.

There you have it. My short version of the Miami Dolphins. So you take this team, a team that won 10 games, and has a very good off season. Not to mention gets some of their best players back. So what is their win total?.....7.5 

Also 66/1 to win the Superbowl. Now I'm not saying they will be going to the SB but those odds will be down to about 10/1-15/1 at some point...Also +375 to make the playoffs. I don't understand who is making these lines on the Dolphins, but I hope you make money off them too. 

I feel like my clock management would be my #1 asset if I was a coach. A lot of it is common sense, and thinking ahead to what the best % chance transpires in the future. If I was a head coach though, I would definitely have some whiz kid clock management coach who is always near me ONLY focusing on the clock.

As for trying to end the game when the opposing team NEEDS a 3 and out. I'm all for a run on first down, a quick screen or 'safe' pass on 2nd down, and then a QB rollout on third down where worst case scenario the QB slides to keep the clock running instead of throwing it away.

Thats how I look at it. 

I knew it would be tough for Seattle this year but thought the pieces they had could still overcome the pieces they lost.

The Falcons played really good football yesterday and the Seahawks secondary could not make plays. Fact is they really aren't a great secondary with Lane, Terrell and then Shead getting hurt. That plus offensive line playing bad and the Falcons fired up was way too much to overcome.

glyde 

Seattle ML

Atlanta FH - Seattle Full (+900)

Goodluck man. Don't blame anybody for backing Atlanta. I truly hope seattle goes down 7-0 or 14-0 so I can pound some Seattle in-game. Could be 24-7 at halftime and I would expect Wilson to bring them back. 

Glyde. 

Seattle -7 (-135)

Sea - Sea (half/full) -150

Sea -12.5 (+170)

Sea FQ -0.5 (-125)

Lions under 17.5 (-115)

Matt Stafford under 24.5 completions

Matt Stafford under 258.5 yards.

Good hit on Houston. This game is really only thing I like all weekend so went hard. Seahawks in the playoffs = 

The Dolphins line was pushed up to 10.5 today because of the fact that Maxwell is probably not going to play. I told my friend that if Maxwell plays, the Dolphins have like a 40% chance to win, without him it is closer to 30%. He is the Dolphin's best corner in a secondary which is average at best.

I'm Actually surprised the line is that high though. I never thought it would get past 7.5. The dolphins are getting no respect, and maybe thats justified. Since they have a backup QB and 7 of their 11 highest paid players injured. Do I think the dolphins win this game, No. Do I think Ajayi can run for over 150 yards, Cam Wake and Suh dominate and the Dolphins win, absolutely. 

Steelers 27, Dolphins 20.

Also if anyone is looking for a prop, I would definitely suggest the OVER for rushing attempts, and yards for Ajayi. I know Adam Gase and the only chance Miami has to win is to run the ball. He will, A LOT. Even if the dolphins are down 24-7 in the 3rd Quarter he will not abandon the run in this game. Ajayi should and will get 30 carries, possibly more...Didn't bet much on this game overall. Just ajayi props, and Dolphins ML for some value.

The only thing I really like this weekend is the Seahawks (surprise). I was really hoping the line would be 7, and I rarely don't but I bought it down to 7 and unloaded on it. The Seahawks have been playing awful the last few weeks, but this is a team that can flip the switch better than almost anyone. The Lions to be are very one dimensional, and the Seahawks love to play teams that line up and throw 40 times a game without a mobile QB. I think we see the real Seahawks tomorrow. No Earl Thomas which is HUGE but still so many good players on that defense. 38-7 is very possible score to me in this game. If Wilson is clicking, and the defense is play good this will get out of hand quickly.

Don't have much feeling on the Giants and Raiders game. I would bet Oakland before Houston for sure though. I also think the Packers win that game but the Giants are a huge ? mark to me. Their great defense could lead them to the SB, but their offense might not do enough to even win this game. Hate putting any money against Rodgers. 

I'm also in a nice predicament. If the Seahawks win the SB, I win $1700 off a futures bet with Cubs/Seahawks. So put decent amount on Cowboys, and Patriots to win the superbowl. If Seahawks can get close some hedging opportunities should pop up since it was only a 25$ bet. 

Would have been nice to talk more football with you this year. I am usually not all about picking favorites, but I really think the superbowl is going to be Patriots vs Dallas. I really think the cowboys will play better than expected this postseason. 

Goodluck this weekend. Will be around all playoffs. Hopefully it is a profitable one for both of us. If I had the self control to only bet NFL playoffs, and College Basketball conference tournaments I would be much better off. I've always felt only during those 2 events was I an above average handicapper. 

Goodluck as always man

You must have been taking a lot of vacations from 2005 - 5 weeks ago.

umm. About that.

Here is a bankroll tip for all of you. Either Bet on Seattle, or don't bet the game they are playing. Very simple.

Good man. Busy!

Goodluck with your plays. Wasn't a huge fan of anything today. Am on Atlanta ML, Cowboys +2.5 and Hawks +7.5...Also those 3 teams with a 7 point teaser.

I think I like Hawks +7.5 the most (surprise lol) Kam is back and he makes the defense so much better. Wilson and the offense starting to click aswell. I HATE betting against pats though. 7.5 too much to me should be like 5.5 or 6.

Goodluck man, will be checking in more often!