glyde69

@Rush51

 Was replying to TC…..

The chalkiest season in DECADES.   

Every year favorites ATS cash at about 41-47%.   I don’t want to say it’s a given, as there’s always outlier years, but expect “chalk” to always be on the north side of 50%.   

The occasional year things end up more chalky, you might be 51-52% 

Then the one year that comes along…..where if u take away week 18 when all the spreads were upside down…..and the favorites hit at 59.5%  Well over 60% since week 4 or 5…….

Maybe THIS isn’t the season to proclaim that betting bad teams…..is a lock and it’s a cardinal rule to stay away from “bad teams.”  Maybe this season isn’t the time to manipulate younger bettors into a 2025 bloodbath!! 

Maybe I’m crazy…….

And shit, if you came out week 8 and gave reasons that bad teams are especially bad this year.   That (insert 12 bad team) will burn up your money.    I would argue.    And then after the season, I would apologize and tell you good call sniffing that out and I failed into making my own adjustments……

You telling us after the season who sucks!!!!!!

Damn Andy, nice hit.   Just seeing this now.   

Covers first ballot hall of fame handicapper making an appearance and crushing it.   

Cheers to good health and family.  I hope you’re doing well.  

I’m a fan of KL but didn’t care for the performance.    I couldn’t hear him well (maybe being in a loud party was part of it) 

But couldn’t really hear anything he said…..and as much as I believe he’s an S tier rapper….he don’t have the hits for this kind of thing.   (Not sure if anyone who is a newer talent has those kinds of hits).   

That’s not a knock.   Would be like Benny the Butcher going out there and performing 6-7 songs….that I sort of know, but no one else in the room knows……and on top of it his mic is low.  

Cheers to your health, Don Juan……..

but I’m on the Chiefs!!!

GL sir and hope to see you in a year 

KC 25-30 degrees.   No wind.  No precip   

Philly 40 degrees.    No wind.   No precip.  

I try not to peek too far ahead so I haven’t seen any lookaheads for the SB.  

I gotta think if Philly opens up as a favorite over KC and Buffalo, it will quickly be bet the other way.    IMO KC -2 and Buffalo -2.5 or -3 over Philly.   

These games mean something though this weekend.   Let’s say Philly wins 37-13.   Force 4 turnovers.   Defense dominant.    Meanwhile Buffalo and KC battle to a 19-17 ugly final.   Lots of penalties.  Sloppy.    I think it COULD POSSIBLY jump to Philly -1.5 ish maybe -2.5.   

But right now I can’t see AFC not being favored.  

It’s like college allowing coaches and now players to leave their teams.  

Stupid to allow any of it until the day after the SB/NC etc 

I do want to see the injury report as quite a few Rams limped off the field with injury last night.   But assuming most or all aren’t too serious and Rams roll into Philly healthy……

I think they absolutely steamroll this Eagles team.   

GL vanzack 

Im hoping the playoffs brings a return the NFL that I know…..where underdogs rule.   

This year was batshit with all the chalk.  

Imo OSU will be -6.5/-7 over Texas 

I’m having my worst season in almost 20 years. 

I’m a dog leaning guy and everything I know is upside down.  

Starting QB only worth a point on the line? 

Agreed all around.  

Really should be neutral.  Like u said, even if an Indiana or Boise state are one and out….at least give them a bowl game in Tempe.  Let the kids enjoy a couple weeks in Scottsdale practicing and “get that bowl experience” like u said.  

More I look at this game, the more I think Boise is the play.  

My first instinct was Penn is too big, too strong, too athletic but now that I’m looking…..I’m not so sure 

It’s rough.  

I can’t fathom why any coaching changes, player moves, etc etc can’t wait until the day after the national championship.  

Why would they allow this madness? 

Strange year continues. 

chalk 10-4 so far (post 4pm games)

AGAIN.   

Total opposite of almost every season in the last 10-15 years.  

ASU +14

PSU -10.5

Oregon +2

Georgia -2

These my first Gut leans without looking at anything.  Penn State….not sure I can lay 11 with that coach, but they are so big and strong and should dwarf Boise.  Maybe I’ll knock it to -4 or -5 and tease them.   

Georgia has a ton of holes unlike in prior years, but they should grind out ND…..

Ewers lays an egg imo and lets ASU hang around.  

Oregon squeaks out another one…..although OSU has earned my respect.  Mid-season I said this team don’t even make the playoffs….and they are playing great ball…..still think Oregon off the bye of sorts pulls it off.  

GL to all. 

@WahooS

 lol I’m an idiot.  

Thanks 

Who are the Rebs?