Go_Green

NBA drafts players more on potential than current ability. While majority of this UNC team was losing the national championship game on a last second shot last year, the 3 freshmen stars on this years kentucky team were still playing high school ball and watching them on TV. I think this experience matters as the stress increases deeper in the tourney. Look at josh Jackson's poor showing for Kansas vs a more senior Oregon squad. And Jackson ranks higher than all the Kentucky stars in the NBA draft. That's not saying Kentucky freshmen will play as bad as Jackson, but it shows an example of superior potential/skill not panning out under the tourney pressure.

I like the under. As you mentioned, kentucky's defense has vastly improved since the first time they met. Both teams shot over 50% from 3 in that game and there were a lot of fouls/free throws. Kentucky's improved D has led to being under the total in 9 of their last 10 games. UNC has struggled a little against slow paced teams like Miami and Virginia. I expect Kentucky to slow the pace like they did against UCLA. The public is all on the over. I'll wait for the total to rise and try to get the under at its peak.

Purdue has 5 guys that shot over 40% from 3.  They may have had a bad game, but don't be fooled, they can light you up. 

Mathias - 45.8% (led Big10) on 155 attempts
Swanigan - 43.2% on 81 attempts
V. Edwards - 42.5% on 102
Cline - 40.6% on 106
Thompson - 40.2% on 127

I'd be shocked if there is another team in the nation that has 5 guys over 40% from 3 on the year.  It's due to their inside/outside game getting good looks.  Kansas will probably have to double Swanigan.  When they do, he will kick to someone who is over 40% from 3 with over 100 attempts on the year...I like those odds. 

Jags/Sac thanks for the awesome words/numbers.  I'll be on Purdue.  The only thing that gives me pause is the potential that Jackson could be breaking out in route to the draft, similar to Carmelo's tourney.

Is your bet on ND placed with solid knowledge of Bonzie Colson's ankle injury.  I heard he'll play, but he was limited in practice since the Duke game.

I see it as a tough game to bet.

ND is 8-2 ATS their last 10.
Duke not good ATS this year, but covered their last 3.

ND has been hot, but Duke was a team that would not be denied last night. Question is will they have the same tenacity vs ND that they had against their rivals. 

Duke beat ND by 10 @ ND while Coach K was out with his back injury. ND is 8-2 ATS since that loss to Duke.  Duke matches up well vs ND with their stout perimeter D and ND likes to jack the 3 ball.

ND is a hot team, that is undervalued/underappreciated, and probably has the bigger chip on their shoulder going into this game.

Duke has Coach K and seems to be gelling at the right time after fighting through an abnormal amount of adversity for the program.

I lean coin toss/no play.  If I had to choose, I'd go with Coach K.

BYU is 2-2-1 ATS in their last 5.  One of those Ls was @ home vs St Marys.  They were 4.5 dogs and lost by 13.  St Mary's also covered at home vs BYU.  St Mary's is 4-1 ATS their last 5. 

St Mary's is led by Juniors and Seniors who were not invited to the NCAA tourney last year after finishing 27-5 and being regular season co-champs of the WCC with Gonzaga.  They're 27-3 this year and I'd hope they make it whether or not they win their tourney.  I expect to see a focused, determined, experienced, consistent gaels squad cover vs BYU.

You're right.  It makes more sense to go over on big favorite.  The over is huge in this game at 172.5, I'm banking on WMU's recent defensive success and CMU's recent offensive slump to cover both.

CMU seems to have cashed it in on the season, they're 0-6 ATS their last six and they've lost their last 3 by over 20 points (easy covers) to teams that are not competing for the conference championship like WMU. 

WMU is 9-1 ATS their last 10.  If they win this game, they claim at least a share of the MAC west regular season title. 

CMU has not scored above 70 in 2 of their last 3.  WMU has not allowed its opponents above 60 its last 3 games!

This is a revenge game, CMU is fading, WMU is surging, it's a rivalry, senior night @ WMU, WMU 9-1 ATS at home.

All this to say I'm on

WMU 1H -5.5
WMU -10
1H U82.5
U172.5

Agree.  I liked this line the most after a quick glance. 

These teams scored 120 in the first matchup and 167, both in regulation, a few days ago.  Portland made 10/14 3s and 20/20 FTs in the second matchup.  They can be decent shooting, but this is well above their average and they still lost by 3.

Neutral court, both teams both decent ATS on the road.
Portland 8-5
SD 12-1

I like
SD 1H -1.5
SD -2.5

Smells a bit fishy, but so did Wisky tonight.  KenPom predicts spread at -8.5.  I like the over more than the line, but I'll take ISU +7.5.  They play well on the road (beat Kansas).

ISU 7-1 Over last 8 road games (the one under was vs Texas the game after beating Kansas on the road)
ISU 8-5 ATS on the road 
WVU 1-3-1 ATS at home in their last 5

BOL

Jags, me being a MSU guy, I think it's good analysis of this game.  People say big 10 is inconsistent, but they've actually been profitable betting on home teams ATS this year.  State has not been good on the road and Illini are surging. They are not a bad team by any means. The only thing I see for the Spartans here is development of their young guys (mostly their 4 key freshmen all seem to be getting better the past 3-4 games) and their recent success with a more uptempo pace.  Turnovers have been down the last 2 game despite more possessions (granted they were home games). Have they developed enough to be consistent performers on the road? My heart wants to hope yes, but my mind tells me to go with the numbers and take Illini.  No play for me, just cheering for my team.  BOL

[Quote: Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan] You're not worried about the steam on Wake and K State? Wake is a desperate bubble team playing its last home game. I think it'll be a close game. They're dangerous at home regardless of their desperation.

I agree.  Wake has played top tier ACC teams tough at home.  But Louis I think may still have a bit of a chip on their shoulder after the NC game.  I think the game is a coin toss.  I like Wake to run and gun and the total to go Over.

Caveat everything with me being a biased MSU fan.  But numbers are not biased.

Wisc 1-5 ATS last 6 games
Wisc 1-6 ATS last 7 on the road
Wisc 2-9 ATS last 11 vs MSU
Wisc 1-9 ATS last 10 @ MSU

MSU 5-2 ATS last 7
MSU 8-1 SU & ATS last 9 @ home

Wisky's once dominant front line has faded over the past month.  Koenig returned from injury last game 2 OSU and had a monster game, but Wisky was rolled by an NIT team.  Their offense appeared out of sorts at times as if adjusting to Koenig's return.  Wisky has not played well on the road or at home lately.  They don't pass the eye test of late.  That said, with Purdue's loss yesterday, a Wisky win ties them for first in the conf, so they should have plenty of motivation playing for a banner.

MSU is young, turnover prone, and inconsistent.  But they've been consistently successful @ home ATS in Big 10 play.  Their front line is depleted from preseason injuries, so they don't rebound like typical MSU teams and they struggle vs quality front courts like Purdue.  If Wisky's front court is unable to exploit this MSU weakness, I see trouble for Wisky again.  MSU has struggled with its half court sets all year being a young team.  Last game vs Nebraska they pushed the pace a lot more and tried to get shots in transition before the D was set.  This led to 88 points vs a Nebraska KenPom Def #63.  This could've been great prep for this game vs Wisky who is well known for their quality half court defense which MSU should try to avoid by pushing pace and getting buckets in transition.  Some may say MSU will be hurt by senior guard Eron Harris' second game being missed due to season ending knee injury.  I've watched MSU all year.  I believe Harris' absence will allow the younger guys a clearer path to take over the team.  I don't see a drop off in performance and this was definitely the case when MSU crushed Nebraska in their first game without him.

I'm on MSU +3 and O129

BOLTA

I like the over.

FSU appears to allow the home team to dictate the tempo of the game even though they seem to prefer high tempo.  Clemson has gone over at home 9 of 11 games.  And they've covered the over by high double digits against up tempo teams while covering the over in most cases barely by single digits against low tempo teams.

A wise Clemson coach would say, we gave up 109 to this team on the road.  Maybe we should slow the tempo at home.  But they've run at home all season and had relative success doing it.  Baring insider information on a 180 shift in previous home tempo gameplans, I'm on the over in this one.

As for the game, I lean Clemson, but probably won't play.  I wouldn't question motivation unless you have insider knowledge of discipline issues.  These kids just want to ball in front of a nationally televised audience.  Look what the Buckeyes did to Wisky despite the appearance of nothing to play for.  They played their best game of the year.  Sometimes removing the pressure allows kids to just ball and enjoy the game more.

Thanks, I posted my comments on this game on your thread.  Curious to hear what you have to say about the numbers. 

I was on that Zags game last night.  Probably the easiest cover I'll ever have.  I also slid in on the under.

I could see it go either way. 

Beavers have covered their last 4 games. Cal's SU lost their last 3.  Beavers are 2-1 ATS on 1 day of rest including a cover vs Cal at home.  Cal is 0-2 ATS on 1 day rest.  Small sample sizes... Heartbreaker loss 2 days ago + 3 game losing streak + senior night + stress of bubble.  Lots of variables for Cal.  Beavers are carefree and have been for a while.

I lean OSU, not sure if I'll play

BOL

I'm confused with what's going on with this line.  Wondering if a veteran can teach me something.

According to oddsshark, 60% of public is on OSU.  Yet the line has gone from Cal -19 to -17.5.  Does this mean big money is in on Cal driving the spread down, while majority of bets are on OSU?  Would this lead you to bet Cal?

I'm thinking there could be let down after heartbreaker 2 days ago to the Ducks, but it's senior night...

Probably a no play, just wondering if someone could tell me about the line movement contradicting public consensus. \

Cheers

Wondering what you see in the under.  Davidson's last 6 home games have been Under and 5 of their last 7 under, but their last two games were on the road and over.  Dayton's last 8 games have gone over including 4 on the road which 3 of 4 have covered the over by double digits and the 4th covered the over by 9.  I see a coin toss on the O/U with this one.

Line does seem fishy, but I'll take Dayton -2 right now 7-3-1 ATS on the road and Davidson 4-6 ATS at home.

"You just don't automatically subtract his points and rebounds,"

Titan, obviously this statement is correct.  I never said Georgia was going to score 18.7 points and 5 rebs per game less without him.  My stance is that when you remove a team's top scorer that contributes 26% of their offense, you are going to have a drop in performance as the team adjusts.  The team has to rediscover its identity without a major COG in their wheel.  Doing this on the road vs a very good defensive and rebounding team will not be easy. 

It's not just Maten being gone.  Bama beat them by 20 at Georgia and killed them on the boards. 

I'm sure the Dawgs will play their hearts out. Some guys will step up to fill the void.  Will they fill it enough to make up for their shortcomings against Bama at home and their rebounding disadvantage.  My bet is no.

How are you so confident in Georgia with this being their first road game without their leading scorer and rebounder?

Georgia will be without their leading scorer and rebounder (Maten out for season...lost previous game vs Kentucky). They covered that game despite him only playing 2 mins.  But that game was at home.  This is the first game on the road without him and their playing Alabama who beat them by 20 in their house. Georgia's coach received a double tech and was ejected in what was at the time a 4 point contest in the 1st half. After his ejection, Alabama gained control. Maten had 20/5 in their previous matchup. Georgia's next highest scorer had 10.  Most important stat in that game was a 40-27 rebounding edge for Alabama.  I don't see Georgia covering on the road without their leading scorer/rebounder vs a team that beat them by 20 at Georgia and owned them on the boards even with their leading rebounder.

Line opened Bama -4.5  now at -5.5 and -6 in some spots.  I see Bama roll and U131.5