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Quite possibly the best kept secret in this forum. Keep doing what you do, bro.
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JoeyPublic | 18 |
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Quote Originally Posted by -DoubleDown-: I believe my 11 yr old boxer has more money than you. For excitement you might as well go pay for a handi than bet these amounts Go read his blog, maybe that will help clear things up...
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JoeyPublic | 39 |
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That should have read I strongly agree with wolfstreet on the whole playcalling/Mackey under center yada yada yada...As I do not agree with that bullshit on the field
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wolfestreetgambler | 36 |
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Well damn, let me get in on the Ole Miss thread. These are few and far between... First of all, I strongly agree with the whole playcalling/Mackey under center deal. We have no identity on offense. David Lee was an awful hire. End of story. However, Mackey has serious trouble progressing through his reads. When his primary target is not open, he shits down his legs and takes off. Secondly, I can't understand for the life of me as to why Brunetti was the starter out of Spring and Fall camp, yet he hasn't played since the first half of the BYU game. I have two problems with it....1) the evaluation of talent sucked ass and he shouldn't have been starting in the first place. 2) If he WAS the best, hell, go back to him. This team is in dissary and obviously, all convidence is lost. The only bright spot last week was freshman LB Senderious Bryant (sp? too lazy to look it up). His little ass was all over the field during the 2nd half, so maybe we are developing some depth there. Maybe getting away from here will help them focus and actually put together a sound game. (If the left side of the line jumps offsides one more time I might find the Tallahatchie Bridge). However, according to a few of their tweets, it sounds like the players think they are going to Cali!!!???!!11 to have a good time...I guess they think Fresno is Hollywood? Anyway, from a gamblers standpoint, I can't touch this damn game. It's hard for me to emotionally detach myself to fade the Rebels, so if anything, I'll pick a good spot to play on the Rebels, this is not one of those times. |
wolfestreetgambler | 36 |
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Corley, What's the general consensus around starkville concerning the offensive line, mainly the open left tackle postion? |
Josh_Nagel | 16 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CrackRat:
Okay gang, I am 1-0 on the day with Memphis winner, Tenn Tech +6 pending and a huge total play on deck.
Ok, so it's obvious that I don't post often, but you bring out the worst in me. People like you are the reason this board can fucking suck sometimes. Why in hell do you find it necessary to go in other people's thread to bash their picks (not to mention call them out in your own thread)? You, sir, are a fucking douche. Take your sleazy ass back to beale st. and go fuck your mother. I mean, seriously, with a name like crack rat I can only hope you won't be around much longer because you will blow your trailer up cooking meth. Start your own thread, make your own picks, and try to earn some respect around here. You are not going to get it tooling out. |
CrackRat | 37 |
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replied to
Auburn is not even the best sec team, so i wouldnt put too much stock in the sec this yr.
in College Football Quote Originally Posted by dawgfanatic:
Normally it has been a good bet to bet on an sec team at championship time but i dont even think auburn is the best sec team, just had a great schedule. Georgia played the worst this yr that i have seen in a long time and they almost beat auburn. Dont know much about the pac 10 just my take on the sec.
Oh by the way....Cal almost beat Oregon. I guess they aren't the best team in the PAC-10 either. |
dawgfanatic | 14 |
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replied to
Auburn is not even the best sec team, so i wouldnt put too much stock in the sec this yr.
in College Football Quote Originally Posted by dawgfanatic:
Normally it has been a good bet to bet on an sec team at championship time but i dont even think auburn is the best sec team, just had a great schedule. Georgia played the worst this yr that i have seen in a long time and they almost beat auburn. Dont know much about the pac 10 just my take on the sec. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but with all due respect, you are out of your damn tree. If you don't think Auburn is the best team in the SEC, you should load up on Oregon. Now, i'm not saying Auburn is a lock, as nothing is a LOCK as some on here claim. However, one does not run the table in a conference such as the SEC and is not considered the best team. In your opinion, who is the best team? I know you cannot say Florida or Georgia. I assume you are going to go with Alabama? I'll agree they are good and they had Auburn down by a large deficit. However, IF Alabama was the team you considered, the "best" team doesn't let anyone come back from such a deficit. Maybe it was LSU you were referring to? A team with multiple losses? One that does not have any definition at QB? A team that had to have a lucky fake FG ball hop to beat Florida? Come on.....have some substantial evidence to back up your claim.... |
dawgfanatic | 14 |
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I, too, look forward to betting this game in recent years. Ole Miss tends to play well in Baton Rouge, and has for the past decade it seems like. LSU seems to have turned the corner, but I still believe their QB's are mediocre, at best. LSU has been able to run the ball really well most of the season (I believe they are actually second in rushing YPG in the SEC, but i'm too lazy to look it up). One thing that worries me is that Ole Miss has seemed to quit.
Don't forget that one of the D-line cogs for Ole Miss (Lawon Scott) broke his ankle last week vs Tenn. He is one of the big run stoppers for Ole Miss, so I'm afraid they will take a hit in that aspect. This year has been a let-down for Ole Miss and it seems they have lost that "passion" in the last few games. I'm also worried that Drake Nevis could eat Masoli... Don't forget the Ole Miss O-line is pretty terrible. Take this to the bank, Ole Miss is going to run Brandon Bolden like a dog. I expect him to touch it 30+ times...So, if Ole Miss can't run the ball against LSU's front 7, it could be a long day. ALSO, LSU is in a double revenge situation. So, with that said, I would play Ole Miss at 17+. IF it gets below 17, i'm going to be especially weary of the play ( a NO PLAY more that likely). It WILL NOT be a big play for me, like it has been in the past few years. BOL
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StraightShooter | 52 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 222bad: Grove City, before you use The Death Valley angle for the basis of your play, take a good look at the ats numbers, during the Les Miles era, at this venue. Well over 80% ats in night games, but in the mid 30% ats during the day. Not sure when Saban won there if it was a night game or during the day, but don't think that home field in the afternoon at Death Valley is that big a deal. BOL whatever you do. 222bad- The fact that the game is being played in Death Valley is not the BASIS of my play, just an angle i'm comfortable with. You make some great points, it would be interesting to see what Miles' ATS record is at home as a dog ( I doubt that happens too much though). Don't forget Saban is 1-3 ATS for his last 4 SEC road games. I'll agree to disagree that playing on the road, in Death Valley, during the afternoon is not a big deal. I think it is a huge deal....But I believe playing on the road anywhere in the SEC is a big deal (less Vanderbilt). Both teams have had 2 weeks to prepare, and I just believe the defenses will be way ahead, thus keeping this game close. BOL
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RJSizzle | 253 |
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RJ- Couldn't agree more with the LSU pick. A lot of people forget where this game is being played (Yes, I know Alabama won in Death Valley two years ago but it makes me like this even more....It's hard to do back-to-back) I think LSU, defensively, matches up well with Alabama (Think Ole Miss on steroids). Ole Miss was able to hold down Alabama, minus the 80 yard screen pass.
The LSU defense is only giving up 15.6 pts per game ( 11.2 @ home). The Alabama offense will have a hard time running the ball against LSU's front 7. Drake Nevis is underrated and will cause major disruptions Saturday. Couple that with, like you said, Patrick Peterson taking away Julio Jones, I believe this game will stay within 6 points. McElroy is a game manager....he is not going to beat you by himself. Hell, he hasn't had to until the South Carolina game and his O-line broke down on him. Alabama's opponent's defenses have given up an average of 27.3 pts a game. They have not seen a Defense as fast and athletic as LSU's. Some will argue that LSU will not be able to score. Alabama's defense is giving up 19.5 pts on the road. LSU is averaging 24.2 pts at home. No, LSU has not seen a Defense like Bama's yet, but I expect them to be able to move the ball on the ground (LSU is averaging 179 rushing yards at home and Bama is giving up 120 yards on the road). I expect this to be a tit-for-tat FG affair with Les Miles figuring out a way to completely blow the game at the end (Ole Miss last year) or pull a horseshoe out of his ass (Florida this year). JMO
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RJSizzle | 253 |
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I feel compelled to voice my opinion, as I am close to this game. The line absolutely baffles me....I figured auburn would be favored by 10.5+ simply due to the fact that they have not performed as well on the road.
This IS pretty much a night game in Oxford, so the place will be rocking, etc....The Rebels will play hard and probably keep it close in the 1st half. However, if any of you watched the Arkansas game, you have noticed that Ole Miss is susceptible to the big play. Obviously this does not bode well when dealing with Cam Newton. Some of you may say, "Well they bottled up Alabama pretty good." Well Alabama is not nearly as explosive as Auburn.....AND Ole Miss gave up a 80+ yard screen pass for a TD to Richardson and Arkansas busted a 70+ yard run last week. Cam Newton will wear on this defense late in the 2nd half and expose our lack of fundamental tackling. With the total around 60, Vegas is obviously suggesting Ole Miss will score with Auburn, as they have moved the ball fairly well all year. Well, I'm here to tell you now, noone wants to get in a shootout with Auburn. Also, keep in mind that Ole Miss is having to start a Walk-On True Freshman at LG and another Freshman at RG....and it's not because they are talented. Nutt said himself this week that they should be blocking for the scout team, but under these circumstances, they are being baptized by fire, so to speak. ALSO, note that Ole Miss' leading tackler (S Damien Jackson) will be on spot play, at best, due to an injury. Thus, a freshman safety will be starting (S Brishen Matthews, AKA Billy Ray Matthews...if you watch the game you'll get the nickname). So with that said, be careful and do NOT load up on Ole Miss...
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Upside | 13 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sims_key: jimmy, you have still not made mention of your sorry defense. alabama lack of defense on 3rd and long is the PRIMARY reason you lost this game. garcia was 18-21 with 9 yards/completion and 1 meaningless sack. how can analyze this game without mentioning this first?!? C'mon guys...Lay off Jimmy. He is close to the Bama program, he understands their schemes/personnel, thus giving useful insight for the upcoming week. I agree that 21 is alot to lay in any SEC game....especially a game in which the team (ole miss) has had an extra week of preparation. More importantly, and extra week to get some players healthy. (Ole Miss had 3 safeties knocked out of the Kentucky game with concussions). With the loss to S.C., does that mean Bama will come out mad and ready for redemption? or does it show Ole Miss that Bama is not invincible and put doubt in the Bama players' minds? We all know Nutt thrives in this situation (@ FL in 2008 and @ LSU in 2007). It definitely hurts Ole Miss's Defense with the loss of team captain Kentrell Lockett (DE) to an ACL injury, however they played without him against kentucky two weeks ago. The front 4 for the Rebel D has struggled pressuring the passer, especially in 3rd down situations. In fact, the most sacks have been recorded by a sophomore LB that puts his hand on the ground as a rush end in certain situations. Masoli is an X factor....If he puts the game on his shoulders and tries to do too much, I feel he will make crucial mistakes. If Ole Miss can somewhat establish the run and get Masoli in play action opportunities outside the pocket, he can make plays. Now....can Ole Miss establish the run? To me, this will decide if Ole Miss covers 21 or not. Keep in mind the Rebels are starting A WALK-ON at LG. After the dismissal of Rishaw Johnson (considered to be their most athletic OL), Nutt was forced to find a different combo of lineman up front. The kid is undersized, yet very smart and is from Alabama. (possibly a motivation factor) Yes, Nutt is going to have some tricks up his sleeve...I fully expect a couple of tricky plays to maybe throw the Bama D and gain yards in chunks. I think Ole Miss will be good for 12-15 points... I think Saban puts the ball in Ingram and Richardson's hands to take the game over. Keep in mind, they only had 17 COMBINED carries against SC. Saban is going to re-evaluate and fix that this weekend. He won't give McElroy a chance to lose him this game. Ole Miss has pretty decent talent in the front 7 to defend the run. However, their linebackers are slightly undersized. Bama will walk away with it in the middle of the 3rd Quarter...However, I feel Ole Miss can hold them under 35 points....
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jimmydafreak | 93 |
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Quote Originally Posted by goscots56: Tuesday Night Troy @ MTSU….not the normal three day breakdown that the Thursday Night games normally receive, but I don’t think this one is as tough to call as some of the others. MTSU
will host the showdown between the top 2 teams in the Sun Belt. Troy
has won the previous 4 meetings but MTSU is the preseason pick to win
the conference. MTSU welcomes their All Conference QB back from a 4 game suspension and should receive a huge boost to their offense. For some reason people are calling for Dasher to have some rust. He
is a senior and has been practicing through the suspension, I
definitely see is addition as an improvement and the 10 other guys in
the huddle will be glad to see him there as well. People looking at these two schedules will probably go ahead and take Troy. Close games against Bowling Green, Arkansas State, and UAB are nice, but the 3 point decision at Oklahoma State will probably be the push that most bettors will need. However, when you take a closer look at the numbers, I believe the play is MTSU. Troy has 66% of their offense coming from the passing game. Since MTSU should be able to shut down the run (only allowing 3.6 ypc) Troy is going to need an even bigger emphasis on that stat tonight. This should fall right into MTSU’s hands. They are holding teams to under 50% completions and have a secondary that features 3 seniors returning from last year and one junior! MTSU runs a more balanced attack (55% pass 45% run). Troy has shown some issues stopping the run (allowing 4.7 ypc) and Memphis might be able to exploit their undersized DL (223, 242, 280, 244) as Memphis is averaging 5.2 ypc. If Memphis is able to establish a running game, they are going to be dangerous when Dasher runs the PA pass, as he is always a threat to run. Both teams are averaging about 6.1 yards per play. But MTSU gains a defensive advantage as they are only giving up 4.4 (as Troy is allowing 6.0) MTSU also gains an advantage with the red zone offenses. Memphis is scoring at an 86% rate, and Troy at a 76%, but as most passing teams do, Troy struggles with converting those Red Zone scores into TD’s and not field goals. As Troy only has a 38% TD rate, while Memphis boast a 71%. MTSU has only been sacked 1 time all year, while Troy has given up 9. As well, MTSU has 11 sacks on the year. I don’t usually put too much into this stat, but sacks can stop a drive. Give MTSU an advantage if they can get a few. Overall, I believe both teams will find some success on offense. But MTSU has the advantage on the defensive side. Troy will move the football, but look for their offense to stall in the Red Zone, and in a close conference game, I’ll gladly take the home team that has the ability to move the football and has not shown a tendency to stall in the Red Zone. MTSU - 3.5GO BLUE RAIDERS!!!! BOL Nice write-up...However, i'm assuming it is an accident that you are using MTSU and Memphis interchangeably?? Just making sure you are not using Memphis' stats in confusion with Middle Tennesse State....
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goscots56 | 65 |
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Wow what a game....just a few notes....
I feel that Auburn's D line controlled the line of scrimmage for most of the game and was the difference. Neither team was really able to push the ball downfield, but State was pitiful... Relf short hopped at least 5 balls to wide open receivers.... State's "passing" QB ( Russell) never looked comfortable, as he was getting molly whopped... If Auburn loses Ziemba (LT that never came back) for an extended period of time, they could be in trouble... Cowbells could be the most annoying thing in college football. that is all.... |
GroveCity | 61 |
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Quote Originally Posted by zanman822: Guys 2 years ago the final was 3-2 so it could go Under 56 easily if the defenses decide to show up Completely different coaches, completely different offensive schemes....This is not a reliable source for any relevant information for this game....
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GroveCity | 61 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ryan8186:
You do realize we have 2 potentially 3 first round draft picks on the defensive line at Miss State. Pernell McPhee (who Mel Kiper has already said is the best in the SEC) Fletcher Cox and Josh Boyd. No way in hell you run for 250, I bet you dont crack 100.
Bottom line is MSU wants this game more than Auburn and it will show tomorrow. I wish it was here!! I can agree that McPhee is a potential 1st rounder, but it is a stretch to claim the same for Cox and Fletcher. Both of them are just starting their 2nd season in the SEC. They both have to have stellar Sophomore AND Junior campaigns to be even in that conversation.....
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GroveCity | 61 |
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and by that I mean.....
If both teams shut down each others running game, I am more comfortable with Auburn's ability to move the ball through the air....Just to clarify
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GroveCity | 61 |
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I see....I feel better about Auburn knowing they only gave up 43 yards on the ground. I feel that will be the majority of State's offense (i.e. Relf). If they can shut him down, Tyler Russell will not be able to complete 80% of his passes like he did against Memphis...
The flip side to this is that state only gave up 41 rushing yards to Memphis, however, I think Auburn is alot more dangerous through the air than State.....
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GroveCity | 61 |
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Quote Originally Posted by USMCatc777: First off, Anyone know what the line was for Miss St. Coming into Auburn last year? I cant for the life of me remember... Ok, right to it.... big Auburn fan here so I'm definitely drinking the Orange and Blue Kool-Aid. Pissed cuz I can't explain the -2 line or the reverse line movement here...i guess the biggest question mark is Auburns D. And fucking cowbells. I wont deny Miss St. moved the football well last week, but against who? Memphis's D is terrible...way worse than ArkySt, (who i think finished 41st last year). I know that part of the reason for this line is AU giving up 26 to ArkySt, but AU's improved on D as the game went on. Arky St. held close for a while..35-23 (13:16 left in 3rd) but then the Auburn D stood up and allowed only 3 more points after that. All the while Auburn kept scoring at will. Auburn's D struggled in the secondary early last week but held it together late in the game...meaning Miss St. has a chance to keep it close, but i still dont think they will. I wouldn't put too much clout into Miss. St holding Memphis to only 7 points either...good job guys, but Memphis won 2 games last year, and finished 7 games with less than 16 points. I would expect about 10 points or so against an SEC D....so 7 isn't too far off that number. I know the game is in Starkville...I think the cowbells are nothing more than a ridiculous gimmick. Bring the noise, your fucking arm will give out after the 1st half when its 35-10 AUB. Bottom Line....I really feel like AUB will score over 40 and Miss St wont break 30 War Damn Eagle What's your feeling with Ethridge and Savage in the secondary?? Ethridge just got cleared two weeks ago for full contact, and looked a little rusty... Savage, I believe, was injured too.... Do you feel they make an improvement from game 1 to game 2?
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GroveCity | 61 |
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