MagicMan64

I would start with the team that has a quality defense.

If I could not find a tease play, I would either go for ( -4 ) play or the ( -2.5 ). The ( -4 ) play takes care of the Eagles winning by 6 or more, and the ( -2.5 ) play takes care of the Eagles winning by 3. I think the Eagles are going to blowout the Redskins.

Well I took the Saints money line. I know it is a lot of risk compared to the reward, but I just want a hopefully easy win. Also I want to avoid backdoor cover by the Falcons. It is hard to beat a NFL team by 10 points let alone 12.

Over the past couple of season's, I thought about fading the bottom teams of power rankings. I also think the bottom teams are more consistent in being bad. Then I started thinking what if I could fade these potential bad teams early on in the season. This is an experimental watch to see how thins might go, starting from candidates in the bottom 6 of the Covers power rankings.

The teams on the watchlist are the Giants, Browns, Niners, Jets, Bills, Cards.

If a game has two teams playing each other like the Giants vs Browns, then that game is skipped.

So for week 5, this watchlist has

Panthers (-6.5)

Ravens (-3)

Broncos (-1)

Titans (-5.5)

Beauty is skin deep, but ugly cuts down to the bone.

As for the Pats, the home team covers about 68% of the time on these home games. Another thing to keep in mind, the last couple of years, the Pats start off slow and then pick up steam. As for the Colts, they seem to be just a below average team that can win about 6 or 7 games. I don't like betting on games with the line above 7, so I cant recommend taking the ats. I would be a little okay betting a small amount of moneyline on the Pats because I think the highest probability of The Pats winning the game.

Over the next few seasons, I will attempt to add over and unders to my NFL handicapping. What factors help you determine whether to go over or under ?

I was about to start entering data the rest of week 4 games to begin my betting analysis for the upcoming week, but the NFL website has changed their format and I am unable to locate the full data for each game. I suppose I will have to comb multiple sites to get the data I need or find it where it is easily accessible.

I was about to do my delta ratings for this week because I think my delta ratings are clever. But one of my betting method concepts is avoid trying to outsmart yourself. Delta ratings are based on the thought football is a game fought in the trenches and the yard per play stat bears that out. Then you examine the difference (delta) between offensive and defensive stats. My experimental formula of delta is (points)/(10 - yards per play). Then you do the difference and then rank the difference.

But instead of looking at delta, I started looking at pywins, which is (points for ^2.37)/(points for^2.37 + points against^2.37).

I did that for each week and gave a merit value for that week. Then added to get the total merit value.

PYWINS Season To Date

Grade A

Rams, Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens

Grade B+

Panthers, Jags, Titans, Bears

Grade B-

Bengals, Eagles, Redskins, Bucs

Grade C+

Saints, Seahawks, Browns, Lions

Grade C-

Vikings, Colts, Steelers, Jets

Grade D+

Falcons, Chargers, Packers, Broncos

Grade D-

Bills, Giants, Niners, Texans

Grade F

Cowboys, Pats, Raiders, Cards

I am considering going to best 2 out of 3 categories of dynamo (offense), defensive passer rating (defense), and pywins (overall).

Do each of these game predictions have the same probability of occuring or does the first game listed have a better chance of being true than the fifth game listed ?

Well I was going to make a longer post, but I have got this Foot Locker ad over most of my comment window...

I am going to skip the Bengals Falcons pick. I am trying to force myself to make a play, and I want things to flow instead of be forced. If I have time, I am going to doublecheck some things.

I am going to wait until the Eagles start playing better. They have to show me something first. They barely beat the Falcons and Colts and lost to the Bucs.

After looking over the rest of the games, for my official picks

I am going for

Saints (-3.5) This is min bet play because of the Saints pass defense.

Ravens (+3) This is a slight lean on the Ravens and a slight fade on the Steelers.

Chiefs (-5) Chiefs are hot on offense at the moment, but have a poor defense like the Saints. The Broncos do not have much going for them.

I do not feel any of these plays are strong bets, but I flat bet at the moment, which works better than giving my picks different unit value.

Thanks beermugs. I do want to be known as a credible source to make betting decisions.

I am going to skip analysis of the Bucs and Bears game with the qb situation they have. And we can see Fitzmagic going zig zag.

Betting wise I want Winston to play and then fade the Bucs. I think they are a better team with Fitzgerald.

The Bengals Falcons makes me pause.

The Bengals have a dynamo of B- and a defensive passer rating of C+.

The Falcons have a dynamo of C+ and a defensive passer rating of C+.

As a hypothesis, I would expect the Bengals dynamo rating to go down on the road, and the Falcons dynamo rating to go up at home.

The def passer rating of C+ does not give me an edge betting decision wise.

This is usually one of my starting points where I filter out games with the line is 7 or more. This lowers my money risk and analysis time. Also, I am cutting down on back door covers from the other team. In addition the line is off from the result a significant amount of the time. This is my initial card. Many of these games I don't care for betting wise.

Lions (-3) Cowboys

Texans (-1.5) Colts

Bucs (-3) Bears

Bengals (-5) Falcons

Eagles (+4) Titans

Dolphins (-6.5) Pats

Seahawks (+3) Cards

Browns (-2.5) Raiders

Saints (+3.5) Giants

Ravens (-3) Steelers

Chiefs (+5) Broncos

I will provide my initial thoughts on a couple of games at a time.

I think the Lions and Cowboys is a poor betting choice on either side.

In the Texans Colts contest, I lean towards the Colts. I have not examined the performance numbers for this game, but I would bet on the Colts if I had to place a bet. For the time being I would fade the Texans.

I don't know if I am going to bet this game or not. With that line of touchdown, I am leaning towards the Rams moneyline. I think the Vikings might keep the game close.

@Belmont3b I usually take my leans and most of the time make them official plays. There are two major things I am looking at. One is how well teams do when they are in the both the top 12 or bottom 12 of dynamo and defensive passer rating. I also took out the bye teams for this week. The Bills and Packers are playing each other and the Redskins and Panthers are on byes, so I can eliminate those teams from the Matchplay Method.

So for the Matchplay picks, this week they are

Dolphins (+6.5)

Bears (-3)

Ravens (+3)

Lions (+3)

Chiefs (-5)

Seattle (-3)

Colts (-1.5)

Now the Matchplay picks are an experiment for this season, just to see how things go.

At the moment, I am filtering out games where the line is 7 or more to build my initial card.

There are so many games that I don't like betting either way this week. When that happens I usually do very poor or very good.

In week 3 when a team was in the top 12 of dynamo and defensive passer rating, tailing them went 3-1.

Fading a team in the bottom 12 of dynamo and defensive passer rating went 3-1.

So teams to put a lean on are Redskins, Dolphins, Bears, Ravens, and Panthers.

Teams to fade are Cowboys, Broncos, Packers, Cards, Bills, and Texans.

The concept of tailing good performing teams and fading ones is a good one, but watch it fall apart this week. This is for the long run. I was busy with other things and forgot to do this for last week.

Now I just have to muddy the waters with my delta ratings.

Defensive Passer Rating

Grade A

Seahawks, Jets, Redskins, Jags

Grade B+

Dolphins, Bears, Ravens, Browns

Grade B-

Lions, Vikings, Rams, Panthers

Grade C+

Falcons, Steelers, Eagles, Bengals

Grade C-

Titans, Colts, Pats, Giants

Grade D+

Cowboys, Broncos, Raiders, Packers

Grade D-

Cards, Chargers, Bills, Niners

Grade F

Chiefs, Bucs, Texans, Saints

Okay to get things rolling, I will talk a little about the Thu Nite game. I hate and despise Thu Football. If the NFL really cared about player safety, they would at least have a bye week before the Thu night game. The NFL could work out something.

As for the Rams and Vikings, I would lean towards the Rams. I think they are the better overall team. I do think the Vikings have the better defense. The Rams are also playing at home. I do want to add I think the Vikings can hang with the Rams. My next handicapping question would be do I think the Rams have a good chance of winning by a touchdown. My following handicapping question is should I take the Rams moneyline instead. I only dabble in teasers, but perhaps the play here is a six point teaser on the Vikings and some other leg. This is just food for thought ...

Onto the Ravens Steelers game ... I think a key betting factor is Flaco's performance in September. He has a pretty good record there. The Steelers have not sold me this year. A tie with the Browns and the Bucs almost coming back on them are not good signs. Over the past couple of years, I have been working on whether to take the ats or the moneyline. I can see both plays as okay if you think the Ravens. I do have an advantage because I do not care which side wins as long as my pick matches the result.

Initially, I do not see either side as a good play. Since I am technical handicapper, lets look at the win loss records. Cowboys are (1-2-0) and the Lions are (1-2-0). Cowboys average points for is 13.66 and their points against is 17.66. Lions average points for is 23.33 and points against is 29.33. Garbage In ... Garbage Out ...

My usual analysis is more sophisticated than this. I just did this basic example as an illustration.

I have a new performance metric where I examine the difference between offensive yards per play and defensive yards per play. I also use points for and points against in the formula. Both teams have 2 games where they had a negative delta factor rating and 1 game with a positive delta factor rating.

As a KISS concept, I would fade a poor performing visiting team and just go with the home team considering the line. As a betting recommendation, I suggest skipping this contest.

Start off with a foundation of good solid working concepts on judging performance and money management. This is how you will be profitable in the long run. Control your bets and don't let them control you. I have the mindset there are incorrect wagers and wrong wagers. For example in week 3, I was examining two plays. At he moment, I do not group my initial card on strength of plays because I end up screwing myself doing things that way. I was not really liking my Bengals pick, but my performance numbers gave a slight edge to the Bengals and the Panthers had a bunch of key injuries. Another game I had on my card was Bears Cards. There was no way I could legitimately go with the Cards. The Bears won and the Cards covered. The only game I had money was the Pats games with the moneyline. I thought the highest probability was the Pats winning the game, so I went with that.

These things happen. On a good day, a top handicapper is incorrect 40% of the time.

Continue going with your strengths as a handicapper and avoid your weaknesses. I was intending to keep practicing with the Westgate contest, but I got off to such a poor start, it was not worthwhile to continue.

I post my picks and analysis to overcome betting anxiety and then I can focus on the individual aspects of each game after posting.

What I am going to start doing is posting my Dynamo ratings, Pass Defense ratings, and Delta ratings. Then on Weds night to Thurs afternoon, I will do the line filtering of 7 points or more. Now the Dynamo ratings are a combination of how many points a team scores and their ball control efficiency factor. These are potential ratings as compared to power ratings. For example, the Dolphins get an "A" grade in the Dynamo metric, but their offense is not as good as the Chiefs, Rams, or Saints. This is how dynamic the Dolphins have been against their opponents this season with each weekly game given a relative merit value for that week. Like in week 2, if a team's dynamic rating for that game is sixth for that week, the team gets 7 merits. Then I add up their merits for week 1, 2, and 3. Then I sort that to highest merit value. Defensive Passer Rating and/or the Delta factor will be supporting whether to go with or against team starting with their Dynamo merit value. For example, the Saints have a high Dynamo merit value, but a low Defensive Passer rating, so there will be times when it is a good time to take the Saints in a game and good times to fade them in a particular contest.

Grade A

Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Dolphins

Grade B+

Bucs, Panthers, Chargers, Redskins

Grade B-

Bengals, Bears, Ravens, Raiders

Grade C+

Niners, Steelers, Falcons, Jets

Grade C-

Titans, Jags, Colts, Giants

Grade D+

Lions, Seahawks, Packers, Browns

Grade D-

Eagles, Texans, Viks, Pats

Grade F

Bills, Broncos, Cowboys, Cards

Congratulations Browns, you are not the worst team in football.