matt--damon

GT is simple to follow. Back them as a dog and fade them when they’re favored. 

HooAlum,

I enjoy reading your write ups.

Have you ever considered extreme weather as an angle, similar to west coast / east coast angles?

Given conferences aren’t local anymore, there are more away teams playing in extreme heat or cold different from their normal home conditions.

Van,

Any thoughts on the Denver / LAC game? I think Denver is the right side although that assumption is tethered to Cincinnati winning. 

Seeing more value now 

I like the points too. Plus one could be dead wrong most of the game but still hit the backdoor with +17.5. 

Well best outcome yesterday for this bet.

Ohio St now at +450. 

@vanzack

Thank you again for such thoughtful advice. I am curious how you determine bets based on your predictions? For example, is the 0-0 after 90 minutes a sample prediction but ultimately you have more confidence on USA +.5 than on under 2.5 goals? (I hope my question makes sense)

FWIW, the odds dropped from 14-1 to 10-1 in the last 24 hours. I guess others had similar thoughts, lol.

I think there’s value on Ohio State at +1400 and curious thoughts from others. I do believe Georgia wins it overall but don’t see value in that line.

I estimate there’s a 75% chance of them being in the CFP (need either USC or TCU to lose). Then Ohio State has a 25% chance against Georgia and then say a 60% chance against whoever is left. That gives them an 11% chance to win at 14-1 payout. Curious for thoughts on this analysis. 

 
I agree with your analysis. Ultimately I think in the event of a USC and TCU loss, it comes down to the scoring differentials. Close losses by both teams wouldn’t get Bama in but blowout losses probably would.

The only other ‘what if’ I can come up with would be a really bad loss by Michigan to unranked Purdue (obviously, highly unlikely) but doubtful that would drop them below 4 in the rankings.

I don’t think he was endorsing my play but answering my question about how to view odds on 3-way betting vs pk betting.

I’m admittedly a novice at soccer but seeing 35% of the games end in a draw thus far led me to wonder which bet offered more value.

On a different note, any thoughts on Cameroon v Serbia? I ask since I think there’s value on the dog here but am curious your opinion.

Thanks! That makes perfect sense. 

@vanzack

Thank you for such thoughtful write-ups and good information. I have a question for you. I am new to soccer betting and am curious your thoughts on 3-way vs 2-way betting and how to determine value. 

For example, I see Poland at -135 to win over the Saudis on 3-way betting and -360 to win on 2-way betting (push if a draw). The 2-way odds 'seem' pricy but I am curious if there's a way to determine value comparing the two lines. If 2-way odds were something like -200, this would be a no-brainer in my opinion (obviously not a real line but using this hypothetical to illustrate that in my opinion, the 2-way bet would be a no brainer). Curious your thoughts. Thanks