Nuscas

If I understand this correctly, the Nationals are the only home team here who are a 4th place team which would also correlate to the 0-10 home trend. So of all picks, Reds ml appears to be the best choice?

Not one other person in this Forum on Red Sox today. GL me I suppose.

Game 1
Red Sox +1.5 -113 (1.5 units)
Red Sox ml +146 (1 unit)
Red Sox -1 +237 (0.5 unit)
Red Sox -1.5 +277 (0.1 unit)

I love a good situational bet, so I'm looking ahead to Tuesday when the Phillies and Mets play - their first games back from London. Generally speaking I'm looking for reasons to fade the Phillies or Cubs based on travel, out of routine and less focus on baseball overall in the past week. If history is any indication on how they'll fare, I will be fading the Phillies specially and ignoring the Mets series (reasoning below). 

In 2023, the Cubs, who won the first game and then were up 4-0 in the 2nd game and lost, were then swept 0-3 upon returning to home soil. This plays into a similar situation with the Phillies who won the first game this year in London and had an improbable loss in game 2. Both the Cubs and Phillies had won their last game prior to the London series as well. The Phillies will be facing the Boston Red Sox in a 3-ame series which should set up for a home dog in game 1 with Zack Wheeler vs Kutter Crawford and additionally the Red Sox may be without Devers who didn't play last game, providing us with an even better price. Whether Devers plays or not, we'll be getting a great price on Boston ml vs a Phillies team who have been exceptional as of late, but fall into this London return from home trap, but important to note that Boston won their last game without Devers so they know this new lineup can succeed already. And just like Boston who won their last game, so did the 2023 Phillies prior to playing the Cubs upon their return. Also it's likely the Phillies are due for a little regression overall and if they are ever in a position to have a let down game/series on the year, this could be it. I'll be on Boston ml and rl in game 1 and likely the same each game, but also I'll be betting for them to win the series with Pivetta going Wednesday who's been sharp and Tanner Houck on Thursday who's sporting a 1.91 ERA and 0.92 whip including 4 ER total in last 4 starts. Kutter is definitely the worst of the 3 for the series, but again the price we'll get vs Wheeler in this situation will be too good to pass up. 

I'm ignoring the Mets series because the 2023 London games team (Cardinals) who won the 2nd game came home and won game 1 of their series despite losing the series itself 1-2. But also the Mets are playing the Marlins so much less talent to rely on vs Red Sox, and also the Marlins are on the road.

Let me know your thoughts. 

GL

Possible to post the picks in this thread? A little hard to follow the system with all the conditions it lists. 

I like the Washington picks. I'll be adding in Verlander fades also.

Note that Verlander is 41 years old coming off IL. Had two rehad starts at AAA and AA. In both he allowed 6 runs over 4 innings.

Verlander over 1.5 walks (+100)
Verlander over 2.5 runs (+125)
Verlander over 4.5 hits (+110)

On Xander, Brewers and Twins/Tigers Und 7 as well. GL us

Probably 'LeagueCapper'

I'm headed to Las Vegas in July 2022 for a week and was wondering if there is anyone who has taken advantage of virtually every online/mobile app sportsbook signup bonus available in a single trip or even a local who has exhausted all the bonus offers, and how that went? Any advice or recommendations or other?

Thanks!

I'm headed to Las Vegas in July 2022 for a week and was wondering if there is anyone who has taken advantage of virtually every online/mobile app sportsbook signup bonus available in a single trip or even a local who has exhausted all the bonus offers, and how that went? Any advice or recommendations or other?

Thanks!

@begginerboy

 Was that Boston rating out prior to losing Williams?

In a nice hole to start off. 

2021/22 NBA Season (-$300): 0-3-0; 0% wp; -3 units; avg odds -105; ROI 0%
*Actual money won/lost: -$500.00

1/27/2022
1. Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 32.5 Points + Rebounds (-115); $500 to win $434.78
2. Karl-Anthony Towns 25 or more Points + 13 or more Rebounds (+850); $25 to $237.57

2021/22 NBA Season: 0-0-0; +/- 0 units; avg odds 100
*Actual money won/lost: $0.00

1/26/2022
Somewhat of a unique situation with two games featuring all four teams on b2b. I like the UNDER in the 1st Half in both games as follows:

2. Denver/Brooklyn UND 113 1st Half (-104); $150 to win $144.23
Nice situational/zig-zag spot where Brooklyn allowed a ton of 1st quarter & 1st half points in their loss yesterday to the Lakers and never recovered; meanwhile Denver had a cake-walk game and blitz of 1st half scoring against a undisciplined Pistons team. 

3. Dallas/Portland UND 111 1st Half (-106); $150 to win $141.51
A very un-characteristic high scoring affair for Dallas' opponent the night prior being outscored by 13 in the 1st half. They will be more methodical in their approach and pace tonight; meanwhile Portland had a great 1st half but couldn't close, so their concentration this evening will be more full game then out of the gun. 

2021/22 NBA Season: 0-0-0; +/- 0 units; avg odds 100
*Actual money won/lost: $0.00

1/26/2022
1. Raptors +4 (-105) vs Bulls; $200 to win $190.47
VanVleet is questionable, but my guess is he could have played last night against Charlotte however they were saving him for a 100% effort in this b2b game on the road. Toronto is deep and the Bulls bench doesn't stack up imo. Bulls still getting accustomed to their limited roster, meanwhile Toronto is nearly at full health. If Barnes plays it's a bonus and I don't think VanVleet + Barnes as active is built into the line. Side note VanVleet is from Illinois and hasn't truly played at the United Center since his stardom and skill has risen (once in 2019).

It's been a while since I posted and I'm looking to get back in the swing of things more so for my own betting accountability than anything else, so here goes.

I don't stick to any strict betting unit, but for the sake of tracking I'll use 1 unit per bet and at the same time show how much I'm actually betting. I'll also track my wins-losses-ties and average odds.

If there's anything else you'd like to see recorded please let me know. 

Let's get it!

One game too early on the Blazers pick. It's Wednesday against Cavs when they smash.

Just seeing this now, I wrote almost the identical analysis for a private betting group of mine. Strange. Glad we cashed it!

Now be ready to fade the Cavs on Wednesday vs Blazers. 

@carl42

 I'm saying look up his picks history in the Forum which you can see here: https://www.covers.com/forum/profile/leaguecapper

Who said he's hiding his record from last year? He had a losing season from what I understand. I'm sure he'd be happy to say it himself. But 10 years in the Forums of winning is pretty good compared to one season of losing in NFL alone (he crushed NBA). 

@gambling-devil

1 week? Are you off your meds? The guy has been in this Forum since 2011 and has crushed it overall throughout the years. You don't have to believe me, look it up for yourself. 

Also he finished 6-0 week 1 just for the record.

3-0 start!

3-0 start...he's back!