panthersrams

Army QB out. Line falling down to -18.5

Anything for Week 9 TD? Thanks as always.

 Assume you meant Kansas State -7.5? Tremendous work as always, appreciate your insight.

Great stuff. Curious what you would play the Navy/Memphis and Louisville/Indiana Unders down to?

WKU lost at home to UTSA 46-52 on October 9th as 3.5 point faves. -45 rush yards, +151 pass yds - https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/boxscore/245097

Oregon lost at Utah 7-38 on November 20th as 3.5 point dogs. -145 rush yds, +63 pass yds - https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/boxscore/245429

Baylor lost at Ok St 14-24 on October 2nd as 4 point dogs. -112 rush yds, -9 pass yds - https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/boxscore/245058

NIU lost at Kent St 47-52 on November 3rd as 3.5 point dogs. -228 rush yds, +210 pass yds - https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/boxscore/245294

App St lost at ULL 13-41 on October 12th as 4 point faves. -170 rush yds, -74 pass yds - https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/boxscore/245131

Looking to get off a bit of a skid here...

Brandt Snedeker (-105) over Patton Kizzire

- Snedeker starting to show signs of life with a 6th at the Valero and a 4th in the Zurich team event last week. Made the cut in 7 straight starts at Valspar. Kizzire outside of a 9th at Valero has not done much all year. 33-MC-60 in 3 starts here so definitely lean Sneds.

Sam Burns (-101) over Kevin Kisner

- Burns is going to break through one of these weeks, finished 4th with Horschel last week and decent showing in his first 2 appearances here: 12th and 30th. Kisner enters with 4 MC's in his last 5 starts. 24th here last year in 2019 but MC-60th in his 2 starts prior to that.

Adam Schenk (+105) over Andrew Putnam

- Schenk starting to play a little better as well, made 4 of the last 5 cuts coming in, 25th at RBC Heritage and 11th with Baker at Zurich last week. Putnam had a hot month in February but has cooled off since, missing the last 4 cuts.

Jhonattan Vegas (-103) over Russell Knox

- Vegas not much of a history here, but played well during the Florida swing in March. More of a fade on Knox, who going back to The Genesis, has not broke 70 in his last 16 individual rounds.

KH Lee (-120) over Wyndham Clark

- Lee playing pretty steady, two top 25s in his last 3 starts. Clark on the other hand in his last 4 individual starts: MC-MC-MC-64.

Brice Garnett (-103) over Chez Reavie

- Reavie has historically struggled at Harbour Town, -0.71 average true strokes gained across 30 rounds. Hasn't played the last 3 weeks and went MC-49-MC-MC prior to that. Garnett a decent +0.93 true strokes gained across 18 rounds here and has a 5th and 9th in his last 5 starts coming in.

JT Poston (-117) over Sepp Straka

- Have a feeling Poston could become the Luke Donald or Jim Furyk at Harbour Town and contend year in, year out. The course just suits his game to a tee - evidenced by his 6th-8th showings in his first two starts here. Straka a respectable 33rd in his debut but a much more up and down player than the steady Poston.

Tommy Fleetwood (+117) over Sungjae Im

- A rare Sungjae fade here, who looked out of sorts at Augusta. Coupled with a MC-MC in his first two starts at Harbour Town where he lost an average of -1.77 true strokes per round make it enough to fire on. Had the option between Sergio and Fleetwood who have similar stats here, so opted for the plus money odds on Tommy.

Rafael Campos (-119) over Robert Streb

- Streb can't figure this place out either: MC-44-MC-Mc-MC in 5 starts, with -1.18 average true strokes gained. Missed the cut in 6 of his last 7 starts coming in as well. Campos once appearance here, finishing 32nd in 2017. Some solid showings in the last couple months though, with 3 top 10's.

Charles Howell (-104) over Harold Varner

- Varner 68-59-MC-MC-MC here. Howell nothing special but makes the cut a lot more often and generally a more consistent player.

Let the dogs bark this week:

Lee Westwood (+138) over Tyrrell Hatton

- Westwood brings both strong course history and current form here at great odds. +1.95 average true strokes gained across 52 rounds at Augusta. Much needed week off last week to recharge the batteries after 5 straight starts. While I believe Hatton is the better player, hasn't shown anything yet in his 4 starts at The Masters. MC-44-56-MC while averaging -1.08 true strokes gained.

Phil Mickelson (+129) over Gary Woodland

- I know Phil is a shell of his former self, but he still knows how to get it around Augusta. Woodland in a similar boat as Hatton - hasn't shown he can get it done at Augusta. Best finish is 24th in 8 starts, with 4 missed cuts and a -0.12 average true stokes gained. Just don't think he chips and putts well enough to contend here.

Victor Perez (+144) over Harris English

- Perez enters playing solid golf with a 9th at The Players and made the semis at the Match Play. At least has one start under his belt at Augusta in the fall of last year and made the cut so doesn't come in blind. English has been pretty steady, but cooled off since his hot start to the year. With no real course history to be concerned with, worth a shot at these odds on what I feel should be priced closer to a pickem.

Matt Kuchar (+102) over Brian Harman

- Taking a risk here as Harmon comes in playing solid golf. But I just don't see how he can get enough close looks for birdie to contend here - the distance disparity is real at Augusta as he'll be hitting mid-long irons into holes where other guys will be hitting short irons-wedges. Kuchar isn't a bomber by any stretch of the imagination but he always shows up at The Masters: +1.93 average true strokes gained over 42 rounds. Seemed to find something the last 2 weeks, making the semis at Match Play and finishing 12th at Valero.

Brendan Todd (+100) over Zach Johnson

- The days of Zach or similar style players contending are long gone. Since a 9th in 2015, he's gone MC-MC-36-58-51 last 5 years. Todd hasn't had much success in his lone 2 starts here but has made 6 of the last 7 cuts coming in and just feel he is the better player.

Pat Perez (-116) over Henrik Norlander

- Perez not playing outstanding but has made the cut in 3 of his last 4 starts. Hasn't teed it up at TPC San Antonio a lot lately but had some success earlier in his career. Owns a +1.53 average true SG across 18 rounds there. Norlander has come back down to earth after a solid run to start the year, going MC-71-MC-MC in his last 4 starts.

Harold Varner (-113) over Adam Hadwin

- Like Varner's ball-striking in the wind. Has a 19th and 21st in his last 3 starts. A 9th, 23rd and 40th in 3 appearances here. Hadwin off an 8th at Honda but a pretty ugly -1.46 average true SG in 6 rounds at the Valero.

Sam Ryder (+117) over John Huh

- Taking the hotter player in Ryder, who enters off an 8th at Honda and 2nd at Corales. Respectable 36th and 42nd in his first 2 starts here. Huh had a 2nd way back in 2012 but hasn't done much since. Worth a play at this price.

Chase Seiffert (+107) over Luke List

- Seiffert seems to show up at the non-marquee events - evidence by his under the radar 15th-3rd-18th last 3 starts. Makes his debut here, but going up against List who just WD after the first round at Corales. Prior to that had gone MC-63-MC-MC. Has a -0.54 average true SG over 14 rounds at TPC San Antonio.

Vincent Whaley (+101) over Troy Merrit

- Going pretty far down the board here but Whaley is making cuts in his starts lately (15th-36-28 L3), while Merrit has a large sample size of not being able to get anything going here (-0.75 average true SG over 20 rounds)

Lucas Glover (-107) over Gary Woodland

- Glover a consistent cut maker and solid in the wind. 14th here last time around and has made the cut in 6 of L7 starts this season. Woodland really hasn't done much this year and no real track record in San Antonio to be concerned with.

Harry Higgs (-118) over Cameron Champ

- Higgs after a slow start rung off solid showings in his last 2 starts (29th-19th). Champ on the other hand has missed the cut in 5 of his last 6 starts and finished 73rd in his only appearance here in 2018.

BOL

What should have been a 4-1 day ended 2-2-1 after Ancer and Hughes blew 3 up leads on the back 9.

Round of 16 Saturday (tie no bet)

Mackenzie Hughes (+128) over Sergio Garcia

Matt Kuchar (+118) over Jordan Spieth

- Backing a pair of dogs who were both undefeated in the group stage. Hughes had impressive wins over Casey and Simpson while Kuchar took down Thomas and match play force Kisner. Even a split here gives a small profit.

On the Berger play. Little pricey on Sergio but he should roll. MacIntrye looking pretty solid so far, interested to see if he can advance.

GL

Got some back on Day 2: 3W-0L-2P. Onto Friday.

Dylan Frittelli (+100) over Will Zalatoris - Bet365

Backed Zalatoris yesterday and was lucky to get out with a draw. He's a world-class ball striker but doesn't seem super confident with the flat stick - something you need in match play. Frittelli is clearly very comfortable out here, cruising in the first 2 rounds on a course he is quite familiar with. He should advance out of this group.

Abraham Ancer (-119) over Viktor Hovland - Pinnacle

Hovland is a little out of sorts right now, losing 4&2 both the first 2 days. Ancer has won his first 2 matches and has a game suited nicely to this course and match play. Definite edge with the putter.

Mackenzie Hughes (-121) over Talor Gooch - Pinnacle

Missed the plus money odds on Hughes the first two days, but he is rolling. Beat Simpson and Casey handily, would have been around 5 under both days. He is scary when the putter gets hot. Gooch is eliminated and hasn't looked sharp.

Lee Westwood (+100) over Tyrrell Hatton - Bet365

Not really sure why Hatton is favored, he can't make a birdie to save his life. Maybe this is the round the floodgates open, but I'll take Westwood who easily beat Wallace yesterday after running into a buzzsaw against Sergio day 1.

Daniel Berger (-125) over Harris English - William Hill

Expecting a bounce back from Berger who was red hot day 1 before losing to Todd yesterday. English has not been very impressive either day, so will lay the short price on Berger.

BOL

Yup like it, on the Sergio play as well. Good luck today.

Round 2 Thursday (tie no bet)

Brian Harman (-115) over Hideki Matsuyama - William Hill

- Harman probably had the toughest loss on Day 1, making 8 birdies yet ran into a buzzsaw in Cantlay and lost 1 up. Matsuyama wasn't real sharp, losing 4&3 to Ortiz. Harman playing better golf right now and has the advantage on the greens.

Bubba Watson (+121) over Joaquin Niemann - Pinnacle

- Bubba played pretty well yesterday, but let it slip at the end, losing the last 2 to tie with Reed. Niemann halved his match as well, but would have been over par on the day. Worth a play on Bubba at plus money.

Will Zalatoris (+100) over Tony Finau - William Hill

- Zalatoris rallied after being 3 down early only to lose on 18 to Kokrak. Finau got rolled yesterday by Fritelli and I just don't think his game is best suited to this course or match play in general.

Sergio Garcia (-104) over Tyrrell Hatton - Pinnacle

- Sergio played brilliantly yesterday handling Westwood while Hatton only made 1 birdied en route to a tie with Wallace. Definitely think Sergio should be favored here.

Lee Westwood (+106) over Matt Wallace - Pinnacle

- Westwood didn't play poorly yesterday, just ran into a hot Garcia. Similar to Hatton, Wallace could not get much going either yesterday. A price discrepancy here, as Westwood is the -125 chalk on Will Hill, so taking the underdog odds here.

Hopefully not another o-fer today.

Nothing like a nice o-fer to start the week . Wolff turned it on down the stretch, Gooch was awful from the get-go and MacIntyre's hole out on 13 completely flipped the match.

Oh well, that's match play. May post a couple in the morning if anything jumps out.

On the Na play. Kuchar has a solid track record here but is struggling lately so Thomas a worthy favorite there. May be one to tie in with another chalk play, just never like laying -200+ on a matchup. Spieth v Fitz should be a good match - likely come down to whose putter is hotter.

BOL

March Madness on the links! Unfortunately, datagolf doesn't have strokes gained data for Austin CC - the host for this event since 2016. Be sure to shop around, as you can find noticeable differences among books for the same match.

Round 1 Wednesday (Tie no bet)

Parlay: Dustin Johnson (-220) over Adam Long & Bryson DeChambeau (-238) over Antoine Rozner at (+107) - Pinnacle

- This tournament and Ryder/Presidents Cup are usually the only times I'm willing to parlay chalk. Reason being is it isn't some random matchup selected by the books where each player is playing vs the course. Here, Long and Rozner have to go against 2 of the best players in the world. The intimidation factor elevates. So getting this at plus money was worth a play.

Kevin Na (-130) over Robert MacIntyre - Pinnacle

- As mentioned before, MacIntrye is a solid young player but making his debut in another big tournament. Hasn't done a whole lot so far in his month stateside. Na WD at the Players a bit concerning, but prior to that was playing pretty steady. Made it to the Round of 16 and Round of 8 here in the last 3 years.

Talor Gooch (+147) over Webb Simpson - Pinnacle

- Enough value here to pull the trigger. Gooch a very solid ball striker with a 12th and a 5th in his last 4 starts. Since the move to Austin CC, Webb has not gotten out of the group stage.

Corey Conners (-125) over Matthew Wolff - William Hill

- This line is in the -150 to -160 range at most books but was able to grab this. Conners playing very well right now, with a 3rd at Bay Hill followed by a 7th at the Players. +2.11 Strokes gained T2G at Bay Hill and +1.74 at Sawgrass. Wolff took 3 weeks off after going 64th-WD at Riviera then WGC Florida. Would play this up to -150.

4-0 after the cut. Rickie vs Keegan tied heading into the weekend. 

Ya just announced Berger WD.

Westwood a sizeable underdog in a lot of matchups this week despite how well he is playing. But as he mentioned in that interview, has to be a bit mentally and physically drained after being in the hunt b2b weeks.

Add:

Matt Jones (-122) over Adam Long

- Outside of a Saturday 67 at the Players, Long hasn't done much of anything in the new year - with 4 MC's and a 69th before finishing 22nd at Sawgrass. Outside of an opening round 76 at Bay Hill, Jones has been very consistent in 2021, having made the cut in 11 of his last 12 starts. I'll take my chances on the short price here.

Jhonattan Vegas (-115) over James Hahn

- Vegas has 8 starts here and only 1 missed cut, whereas Hahn went MC-MC in 2013 and 2014 and hasn't teed it up at PGA National since. Guessing it isn't his favorite track in the world. The AM-PM draw favors Vegas as the wind is supposed to pick up Thursday afternoon and chance of thunderstorms Friday morning. PM-AM draw for Hahn.