RMcCarthy1

UVA -7

-bounce back game after doors were blown off in rivalry game vs. VT. Best player played limited minutes due to foul trouble

-NC State lost its best player (Daniels) for the season last week and have another senior questionable for tomorrow (Funderburk). Shorthanded, and without top guys against UVA defense could be big trouble for them.

-downgrade most of the KP team stats for NC State with too 2 guys out. Guy to step up last game was 6-11 Soph Manny Bates, matching up against one of best front courts tomorrow Look at shooting efficiency of UVA and defense for 2p% and 3p% for NC State. Big mismatches. NC State beat UVA last year. Totally different team then what they put on the court tomorrow.

I smell blowout.

Highly recommend a subscription to KenPom. Great data, easy to analyze and find mismatches. The other tip, simply use the power of the internet/Twitter. Many beat writers out there for teams and conferences. Before placing a wager, be sure to read their analysis on a game so you get a better sense for how to adjust the KenPom data to come up with a selection.

UNI for me. 85% of bets on MoSt due to yesterday’s blowout. Was UNI’s first game in 18 days and UNI was still 6 point Fav. They were rusty, shot like garbage and MoSt couldn’t miss. You are getting serious value on UNI today, Vegas doesn’t give free money, and this one does fall into the public trap game. 

Scram with your spam

Some really big movement in the total tonight. 160 open down to 153, no major injuries reported. KenPom has it 81-80, I see two of the fastest pace teams who can hit the freebies. Anyone have info on what’s driving the movement?

Seems like sharp early money drove it to 156, then has been steadily moving down from there (sheep post sharp move?)

@jroc1247

 Possession before the final free throws you hear Jay Wright yell “hold it”. Absolutely no reason to foul down 11, with 11 seconds left on a team that would have held it. Awful ?? 

Cleveland State

Same game plan, attack the rim and get to the line. Contain Sykes. This game should be a battle, these two veteran teams are familiar with each other and want this bad. Take the points.

DNB, Optimizer, Dullahan.

Only one Id consider to hit the board is DNB

Good luck, however, despite all the buzz about pace, I do not think will we will see a 45s 1/2m, Trinniberg especially knows he cannot go wire-wire at that speed, he just wont make it.

Also, look at the fractions in the BC Juvenile, despite Dullahans close, his fraction were not any better than Union Rags in the final stretch.

BOL regardless, it is the derby so you just never know, best horse TODAY will win.

Passed Hansen with ease on his preffered track that suits closers. If that race was on Dirt, he gets less kick in the end, and Hansen wins the race with ease.

It was more important for Hansens connections to get him back to KY than to send him elsewhere on dirt, was not an ideal situation for him. Dont overstate Dullahans performance in that race today creates many more challenges for him and his style. Wont hit the board. It makes me feel better that Jerry Bailey agrees.

Union Rags or Creative Cause today.

Live long shot, Went the Day Well.

Agreed

Despite the depth and talent in this race, I feel 9/2 is great value on UR who is the most talented horse in the race. Despite not getting any great trips, he is consistantly puts up mid 90s beyers. If he can find a hole after stalking today, he has a great shot.

The derby is due for some chalk!

WPS 4,8

EXBX 4/13/14

TRI 4/ 6,8,10/6,8,10

SUP 4,8/4,6,8/8,10,14/10,14

Good value in the maiden Suns Out Guns Out. Like the improving figures.

Looking at playing combinations of the 1/6/7/12

TEASER: CHI BEARS +13.5/ U54    3.6/3U

PARLAY: CHI BEARS +7/ U48  2/5.2U

STRAIGHT: CHI BEARS ML  1/2.5U 

SNF:

ATL FALCONS +7 5.2/4u

Totals continue to be the death of my wagering bankroll...Onto the evening games..

DEN BRONCOS +4 2.2/2U