RobertoFiory

@vanzack

 Great idea !

@RobertoFiory

Greetings 

This may have been my last post/pick... I'll try to post/comment on the upcoming NFL season later in the year.

cheers

RF

Someone try to keep this trend updated ... I don't have the time

Hope everyone is well /. !

Game : New Orleans @ San Francisco
Pick : SF 49ers + 3.5

A classic matchup featuring the high powered offense of the Saints vs the stout defense of the SF 49ers.

 A lot of the focus has been on offense and defense respectively, the somewhat overlooked special teams may be the difference here. The punting of Andy Lee has been a key factor all year long in the 49ers success, and Akers has had a great season.
 These two guys may be the key !

Good luck !

This is Europa's thread , and when I viewed it, it was the first time I saw the spreads for those games. This is why I commented on, them . I am pretty good at predicting spreads, but sometimes the opening spreads reflect the play on the field, and sometimes they reflect perceived public backing, regardless of play on the field . This is why you should always establish your own spread and compare it to the actual spread. Do no let the spread dictate your side, but rather see how much it differs from yours. Proper handicapping involves making your own spreads. That's a good exercise to determine your own " true " spread .  

Interestingly, I  absolutely nailed both of the spreads for the New Orleans @ San Francisco and Denver @ New England games .
3.5 & 14 right after the conclusion of each wild card game.
That means I'm pretty good at predicting opening spreads, but it also means, it will be difficult to pick a side.

All is good !
And thank you every one for your comments !
much appreciated...

Good day to you all !

Game : Detroit Lions @ New orleans
Pick : New Orleans - 10.5

Detroit Lions are in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 
These Lions will be an attractive underdog pick for a lot of people in this forum and across countless of sportsbooks all over.
Here is what we hear :
- It's hard to beat the same team twice in one year
( never mind , it happens ) 
- Detroit lost that regular season encounter because they shot themselves in the foot
( well, that's what inexperienced teams do, and even more so in the playoffs -11 penalties for 107 yards is not a recipe for success and certainly not an excuse for losing )
- Ndamukong Suh did not play in the first game 
( He did not, but he was in the lineup when Matt Flynn threw for nearly 500 yards and 6 touchdowns for Green Bay ! )

New Orleans is riding an 8 game winning streak in which they covered every one of those games winning last three heading into the playoffs by 28, 29, and 22 points.

You want momentum , you got it.

You just won't find a hotter team than these New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans lost 2 of their last 3 games heading into the playoffs last season and were shocked by the Seahawks in the wild card game.
This is the motivational tool to add the final ingredient for this matchup.
New Orleans defense has not given up more than 24 points to anyone outside of the shocker @ St LOuis in the last 10 games . By contrast, Detroit's defense has given up more than 24 points on seven different ocassions in their last 10 games .
Does it matter ?
I do believe New Orleans gets their 38 points+

Final score : New Orleans 41-17
no opinion on the over/under

 Best of luck !
RF

Thanks guys !

so Carolina and Jacksonville are the favorites off the bye, with Jacksonville being the road favorite coming off the bye...

The 3.5 points are good enough for me to take the NY Giants , and trust me , I am a 49ers fan and have not gone against them  so far this year .
Last week was the third time I took them this year. Normally, I don't go against a hot, undefeated team ( ATS ) but we are into the second half of the season and the price is right.

Outside of the Raiders , Detroit and NY Giants represent my other investments this week. And yes, I am going with Jacksonville and Carolina ...

Good Luck !

The breakdown for the teams that have already played their games following a bye during the 2011-2012 season :

week 6:  >> favorites 1-0 ATS

Balt -7 vs Hou won 29-14  >> Won ATS
Clev + 6.5 @ Oak lost 17-24 >> Lost ATS
Dallas + 6.5 @ NE lost 16-20 >> Lost ATS
Miami + 7 @ NYJ lost 6-24 >> Lost ATS
St Louis + 14 @ GB lost 3-24 >> Lost ATS
Wash + 3 vs Phil lost 13-20 >> Lost ATS

week 7  >> favorites 1-2 ATS /  road fav 1-1 ATS

Ariz + 4 vs Pitt lost 20-32 >> Lost ATS
Denver - 1 @ Miami won 18-15 >> Won ATS
KC + 3.5 @ Oak won 29-0 >> Won ATS
SD -1 @ NYJ lost 21-27 >> Lost ATS
Seattle + 3 @ Clev lost 3-6 >> Lost ATS
Tenn - 3 vs Hou lost 7-41 >> lost ATS

week 8  >> favorites 4-2 ATS / road fav 1-1 ATS

Buff - 4 vs Wash won 23-0 >> Won ATS
Cinci - 1 @ Seattle won 34-12 >> Won ATS
NYG - 9.5 vs Miami won 20-17 >> Lost ATS
NE - 3 @ Pitt lost 17-25 >> Lost ATS
Phil - 3 vs Dallas won 34-17 >> Won ATS
SF - 9 vs Clev won 20-10 >> Won ATS

week 9 >> favorites 2-1 ATS /  road favs 2-0 ATS

Atlanta - 6.5 @ Indi won 31-7 >> Won ATS
Chicago + 9 @ Phil won 30-24 >> Won ATS
GB - 5.5 @ SD won 45-38 >> Won ATS
NYJ + 2.5 @ Buff won 27-11 >> Won ATS
Oak - 7 vs Denver lost 24-38 >> Lost ATS
TB + 9 @ NO lost 16-27 >> Lost ATS

week 10 >>

Carolina - 3.5 vs Tenn
Detroit + 2.5 @ Chicago
Jacksonville - 3 @ Indi 
Minnesota + 13 @ GB

week 12 >>

Houston @ Jacksonville
Indianapolis vs Carolina  
New Orleans vs NYG
Pittsburgh @ KC
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24 teams have already played their games following their bye week .
There are 8 left on the schedule .  
4 of them will be playing on week 10 :
Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota
There are no teams taking their bye this week, so the remaining 4 teams ( Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh )will be playing their games following their bye week in week 12 .
Notice that by contrast Underdogs coming off a bye this year are 4-7 ATS with Home Dogs going 0-2 ATS

MJ2345 

You are correct,  the line in the game between the San Diego Chargers @ NY Jets on Sunday Oct 23 2011 shows San Diego as the road favorite by 1 point. Line moves aside, and disregarding what bettors grabbed on that game, or what other sites may show as their final odds for that game, It is the Covers scoreboard that I have used to assimilate these stats since 2005 .

This season 2011-2012
Favorites coming off a bye are 8-5 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye are 4-2 ATS
Road Favorites coming off a bye are on a 14-2-1 ATS run

Coming into the 2011-2012 NFL season :

Favorites coming off a bye were :
54-27-3 ATS
since the 2006-2007 season and
66-31-3 ATS
since the 2005-2006 season began

Updated numbers :

Since the 2006-2007 season began 
( through week 9 this season ) :
Favorites coming off a bye are 62-32-3 ATS
Since the 2005-2006 season began 
( through week 9 this season ) :
Favorites coming off a bye are 74-36-3 ATS

please bring up any errors
RF
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