steelwill43

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created a topic Thursday in NHL Betting First things first. The #1 possession team at home, facing off against the last placed possession team on the road. HUGE mismatch here TB -1.5 (+153) 2 units TB reg -0.5 (-120) 4 units Another possession mismatch I want to take advantage of. I don't care if they beat the Canadiens. The Canucks cant keep up with the Stars. DAL reg -0.5 (+111) 1.5 units Carolina is underrated IMO. NYI backup in tonight, and Griess has been good, but I'm not buying it. Car reg ml (+180) 1 unit How does this make any sense? Buffalo has VASTLY improved from last season. They are currently sitting 7th on the road in CF% at 54% compared to Pittsburgh being 12th at home at 51%. Add to that Pittsburgh played last night, and Zatkoff could be in goal tonight. This smells upset and the line is WAY out of whack. The books are looking into last seasons standings a little too closely here. Buffalo reg ml (+248) 1.5 units Buff reg +0.5 (+132) 1 unit View Post \| View Thread	steelwill43	1	October 29, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Two Nice Comebacks Yesterday. Wednesday MLB Plays in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by cjm2008: Yesterday. 2-0. Nice comeback wins with Royals and Jays RL Today's Plays Royals. -103. Royals have won three straight from the Reds whose bullpen collapsed last night. Edge again to the Royals offense and bullpen. BJays. RL. -115. Buerhle 3-0 his last five starts and the Jays hit .278 vs lefties. Jays back on track winning two straight. Yanks RL +105 Yanks are 4-1 vs the Twinkies and Santana has an ERA over 10.00 his last 5 starts going 0-2. GL tonight Guthrie is an absolute gas can be careful on the Royals. Also check your facts on Ervin, in his last 5 starts he's 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA. Still awful numbers but quite different than what you posted View Post \| View Thread	cjm2008	15	August 19, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to DK MLB Tuesday 7/28 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma: More thoughts on the Phillies/Jays game. The general thought is that Blue Jays hit well against lefties. I checked on my own that their overall record is 14-10 against lefties(15-12 according to another data site.. which is not far from my findings). Ok so you will say Jays are a great lefty hitting team so why are you going against that? And I will say, the Jays bats have been hit or miss this whole month. The Jays may have hit lefties well earlier in the season but...did you know they are just 3-6 against lefties since June 30th? Take the overall record into equation and they were 11-4 against lefties when they were hot but not anymore. Leftie pitching for the Jays has also been suspect as well. Besides Buehrle who has been kind of fade material as of late, there isn't another lefty on the rotation that is worth a damn when you have Matt Boyd and Doubront stinking up the joint. Lefty starters for the Jays are just 4-6 in their last 10 starts. Overall the Jays are 14-15 when a lefty starts This might be some of the most shallow research I've ever seen. Using record stats is an awful method for R/L matchups. The Blue Jays have a .286 team average and .358 OBP vs lefties, both are good for #1 in the MLB. "Buehrle has been fade material of late" Marky B has a 1.78 ERA in his last 10 starts I love how Matt Boyd is "stinking up the joint" when he's made 2 MLB starts in his career, and Doubront has pitched to a 3.66 FIP in his few starts. Im a jays fan and Im biased. I also know more about them almost any other poster on here. Im not saying the Phillies are the wrong play because the line is extremely high. But your research, and your reasoning is garbage dude, you need to evaluate some things a lot more closely View Post \| View Thread	Digitalkarma	27	July 28, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to tulo to blue jays in MLB Betting Man I've never seen so many idiotic comments in a thread. First of all, those claiming the jays need a starter. Of course they do, the trade deadline isn't over. But this trade is as much about defence as it is about offence. Tulo has saved 41 runs over the last 3 years, while Reyes one of the worst defensive shortstops in the MLB had a team leading 13 errors. This is a huge boost to the defence. Tulo is alos a much better hitter. For those stating the Coors factor...uhmmm have you seen the ball parks in the AL east? The Rogers centre is a as big of a hitters park as there is in the league. Not to mention Yankee stadium, Camden, Fenway. All major hitters parks. Tulo will fit in just fine. The guy claiming the jays are taking on payroll is an idiot, because they both are making 22 million this year. Yes Tulo has 3 more years of team control, however Buerhle's 19M comes off the books after this year. A run scored is just as good as a run saved. Toronto improved in both areas with this trade. Get a clue View Post \| View Thread	tcufootball	43	July 28, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to First part of the parlay,Cubs, who has the second part? in MLB Betting I like Wsh/Pit f5 under 3.5 View Post \| View Thread	magiccarpetride	9	July 24, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 5 team lock parlay in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by magiccarpetride: The tooth fairy will show up before you or I win a 5 team parlay. Do the math. If you ever took a statistical class in college you would know it's nearly impossible. Don't throw your money away bud. Try a 2 team parlay where you have a much better chance. Just trying to help. Probability of winning a 5 team parlay is about 100 to 1 my friend. It's more like 1 in 35 (Assuming each game is -100) and probably less if you're betting favourites. Still not a smart way to manage your money though View Post \| View Thread	FYL706	32	July 24, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to First 5? in MLB Betting I like the F5 line here as well View Post \| View Thread	FYL706	5	July 23, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Money Ball 7-21-2015 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by vorvan: YES - steelwill43 - -- --- Monday 20.7.2015 - 10-1 home team The 2 red sox games werent first game of the series, they were the last games, so 8-1. And like the above poster said you are using 1 days worth of games. If you need me to explain to you why this is a dumb way to look at things you really shouldn't be giving your money away like this. BOL View Post \| View Thread	KeyElement	79	July 21, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Money Ball 7-21-2015 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by DarthFader91: Did you graduate high school? Can barely understand what the hell you're talking about. I think he's trying to say never bet on the visiting team in the first game of the series. Which may be just as idiotic as his english and grammar View Post \| View Thread	KeyElement	79	July 21, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Due to the nationals.... in MLB Betting LOL. This guy posted in another thread that the Nationals were "the play of his season" Don't just throw a hissy fit and cry to others saying you were unlucky, meanwhile people who actually do their research and crunch numbers, you the know the consistent winners, claim they are lucky. Take your losses like a man. It was your choice to make Tanner Roark and his 5.50 FIP your play of the year. This loss is on you View Post \| View Thread	indiansrock	43	June 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Feartheweb Tuesday in MLB Betting whats your reasoning on Hou/Chw over? View Post \| View Thread	FearTheWeb	14	June 09, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Weeble's Tuesday Picks in MLB Betting Like the Under bet. I took it at Under 7.5 and its just gone up and up since View Post \| View Thread	weeble5672	39	June 09, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Feartheweb Tuesday in MLB Betting While I see what you're saying about Miller, I don't agree with you he is an auto-fade. His ERA is absolutely lower than it should be, and it will go up, however he has an FIP of 3.35, which is an impressive number, especially next to Collmenters 4.65 FIP, and ugly 35% Ground ball rate View Post \| View Thread	FearTheWeb	24	June 02, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Monday bases in MLB Betting game is postponed so none of this matters anymore (Bos-Min) View Post \| View Thread	indiansrock	31	June 01, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Vegas hates Texas (for some reason) in MLB Betting Martinez hasn't been as good as his numbers indicate. He has an xFIP of 4.88 which is well below league average. He is a fly ball pitcher in a hitters park. Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched to a sparkling 2.40 FIP in 48 innings in AAA, with a 8.19 k/9 rate. Im not saying this makes the Red sox the right play, but it is an explanation of the line you see. This game is a toss up IMO View Post \| View Thread	luongo001	28	May 28, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Thursday plays in MLB Betting Oak F5 is my play of the day. Not sure why you would get bashed for that View Post \| View Thread	indiansrock	20	May 21, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Steel's MLB 5.14 in MLB Betting Went 3-3 yesterday +0.40 YTD: 37-39 +36.42 Today: Giants ml +156 Dodgers -1.5 +103 Seattle -113 5 units each. BOL everybody View Post \| View Thread	steelwill43	3	May 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Steel's MLB 5.13 in MLB Betting Adding pit/phi u 3.5 first 5. -115 View Post \| View Thread	steelwill43	3	May 13, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bob's MLB Wednesday * 5.13.15 * in MLB Betting Love your threads Bob, you definitely are knowledgable in terms of managing your bank roll. BOL today View Post \| View Thread	BirdsOnBat	27	May 13, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Weeble's Wednesday Picks in MLB Betting Love the over. On the other side for the Indians pick. GL today Weebs View Post \| View Thread	weeble5672	42	May 13, 2015 View Post \| View Thread

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