Syracuse L.J.

You're threads should be required reading. 

It seems I have the correct mind-set in September...and then October comes and the books start to get some of their money back. So it becomes gambler vs the book...it's personal..."get that money back". It's that damn Lizard-Brain. It formed a million years--give or take--- before the part of the brain that controls patience. The lizard brain needs to be fed by beating the book!

If you don't mind, I'd like to add a book to your reading list: "What's Luck Got to Do with It? The History, Mathematics, & Psychology of the Gamblers Illusion" It's such a long title, it has to be educational. Anyway, I'm reading reviews to figure out how to put the point of the book in a sentence: One reviewer wrote "it's not a mathematician telling us we'll never hit a million-dollar jackpot--it's a mathematician telling us why we continue to hope to hit that jackpot."

Hope springs eternal. It would be great to pay off the mortgage this year. If we try to do that, we'll be broke by week 3 and living under a bridge in October. (Now I just got to remember this before placing every bet.)

Hah. Well, "beat the book this year assassin!" will always sound better than "make a small profit & look for small advantages" but...good luck making a small profit this year. 

Longhorn,

I think Coach Freeze can get his system in place pretty quick. Game 1, though...might be too quick. I like Syr to cover. The -17' looks like a big spread, but it's easier for the better team to cover a larger spread when both teams are going Ludicrous Speed. Syr proved last year they can win the true road game: crushed BC and WF.

Liberty might be a monster someday...good coaching, the university pours money into the program, recruiting way above their pay grade...but not yet. As always...nothing is easy...Liberty could get 2 or 3 late scores and backdoor the thing...

I don't play as many games as  I used to...tough transition...I looked in the mirror back in 2017 and realized I'm no Nostradamus.  So I had to give up and cut back. Syr game isn't one of my top 3-5 plays yet. (On Auburn, might add WF & ND...maybe VA....most likely bet the first half of Alabama if it's under 17'. (Meh...it won't be.) That damn NW+6' is making me feel like a moth looking a flame...but I think I can resist. 

Although now that  I read the Syr writeup...I might have talked myself into putting some $$ on the home team. 

Yeah, I don't like that WMU game...

I did underrate the receivers a bit. Tristan Jackson is a Mich St transfer and had all the stars coming out of high school...our best receiver was probably a frosh, Taj Harris. Losing Custis really is addition-by-subtraction...not putting lipstick on a pig. He was known for drops and busted plays more than anything else. I'm just more in recruiting mode at the moment than evaluate-the-starting-line-up mode. 

Hi double! 

PJ Fleck catches a lot of flack but I like his style. I like those "culture guys". MN could start 6-2 (assuming losses to Purdue and Nebraska.) Maybe a 7-1 start might... No! I won't jinx it! 

SYR SCHED:

Liberty and Maryland are wins. 2-0. Too early in Locksley's tenure...even if Saban helped him figure out this coaching thing...

Clemson. Loss. By the way, might as well mention it now. Next year, in 2020, SYR will have air conditioning in The Dome  It's heartbreaking that we'll give aid-n-comfort to our enemies.  No matter what else I write, I assume this will take over your thread. Sorry! 2-1

WMU and Holy Cross. Wins. 4-1. (But Bellamy scares me!)

@ NC State - Schedule advantage for NCST: Thurs night in Raleigh. Loss for Syr. 4-2

Pittsburgh - Friday night in The Dome. WHO'S HOUSE? 5-2!!

@ Florida State - Geez, that was quick. No one has any love for Taggert anymore? I think he pulls it together this year. Even if he needs a few more games, this game shows up late in the year, Oct 26. I think he'll have it figured out by now. Loss for Cuse. 5-3.

Boston College. Just one of those damn teams. Adazzio is scary when he's coaching for his job. Preseason mags don't believe they have an OL. They do well in OL recruiting and always have a deep line. I'm calling it...loss for Syr. 5-4

Duke - Schedule advantage for Syracuse. Duke is off Notre Dame and Syr off a bye. (Gamblers topic: Is the "ND Hangover" a thing if you aren't expected to even compete with ND?" Discuss!) Win for SYR = Bowl eligibility again, 6-4.

@ Louisville - Petrino ain't here anymore to hate. I still hate you LVille! Cuse by 60! (Ok, seriously, who knows how many kids the new coaching staff has to run off by this point? Have to give SYR the win here. 7-4 

Wake Forest - First offense to run 125 plays gets the win! Babers gets to 125 plays first! I think Syr D is built to handle this type of OFF. I'll be surprised if new WF skill guys have between-the-tackles type of power.  Syr W =  8-4.

So 8-4 and good vibes for a young team heading into 2020. Coaches have to fill up a couple holes...but a double-digit wins seems more possible for 2020.

NDguy, Glad you have Syr as 10 win team! I have them at 8 wins...they're retooling in a few spots. Not intending to take over but...I'll just throw some SYR notes in your thread if you don't mind. 

QB - I expect Devito to be more efficient but less explosive. He's young and will baited into bad throws. Won't have running production from this spot anymore.

RB - Won't need the QB to run. I like everything about Abdul Adams & Moe Neal and depth. Good depth here. No one person is "the speed guy" or "the power guy". (Not counting the jumbo package on the goal line.)

WR - Disappointed in recruiting. I expect to lose top guys on the board to Penn St. But we lost a couple to schools like Pitt - teams that have coaching staffs that don't know how to throw the damn ball. Meh. Need that first 4-star-talent guy to get in the program. Anyway, the talent is good enough...coaching and the system make up for lack of stars next to kids name...

OL - Another unit that is coming along slower than I'd like. C and OG's are fine if Servais can get out of the C spot and into his natural OG spot. (This bears watching, gamblers!) OT's are also concern. We brought in a JUCO and a transfer OT from South Alabama. This spot is still thin. Needs another year to build depth. Young players need reps this year.

DL - I like our DE's. Best here in a long time. Still they're "top 1/2 of the ACC" level. The DT's? Meh. They hold their ground. Don't collapse the middle of the pocket yet. I like Babers' strength and conditioning program. This staff gets the kids developed. Maybe that bears fruit this year...?

LB - I love how this is recruited. But they will be young. This will be the final year in the Babers Era where LB is inexperienced  question marks. When Phil Steel's mag comes out in 2020, I expect this unit to be the top 40ish.

DB - Speaking of Phil Steele. I expect our DB unit to rate top 30-35 this year...haven't seen the mag yet. This unit is legitimately good. 

Special teams - Best in ACC? Will always be a strength under Babers.

(I apparently have a problem keeping my post under 4000 characters and Covers doesn't allow that...so schedule is in the next post.)

Hey Nos, glad to see you're still one of the first in line.

Love VT & ND. I guess we all have to auto-bet Auburn vs a P12 school...Like Toledo...Kentucky always wins that first game a few points less than the line.

Are you looking at Virginia? I hate what Mendenhall is doing down there...Syracuse is trying to get recruits out of the DMV (DC MD, VA for anyone not in the area) and he's making that tougher with his success. We lose enough recruits to MD and VT! But...if I can win a few bucks on them in week 1 - all is forgiven. 

His final review was Kansas earlier in the week. (which, by the way, is a terrible team to finish with...). Anyway, it's unknown if SB Nation will release the rest of the 2019 previews. He finished G5 leagues, ACC, Pac12, and...Kansas. 

I don't use his S&P info to make bets. He has great general info about strategy. This is what I don't see in any other review. Things like the ILB and safety corp are the positions that prevent big plays, who the havoc guys are...he teaches gamblers defense. That's the "magic" side of the ball for people who never played the game. You need someone to point out the obvious before it's..."oh, yeah, that's obvious." 

Tried to find a little info online...one opinion is that he'll work with ESPN as they add gambling content. Not gonna add the link...it won't be approved. No facts yet. So just starting this thread because some of you guys are a little wiser than the rest of us...and might know a little something.

However...rampant speculation is also encouraged!

Love me some big-a$$...writeups! 

Agree with Rutgers. Coach Ash runs up the score vs over-matched competition. Probably to give his teams confidence to spare when they end up on the wrong end of 0-56 scores in conference play. 

Like that you use trends, angels and team history. Gotta admit, I didn't know about Ferentz needing one more win to be #1 all time in wins at Iowa. I kind of see that angle differently than you, though. I think the Iowa kids use it as motivation...but I'm not betting the game so not against the N ILL pick.

Big write-ups make me want to write big responses but...I'll behave. 

Good luck this week.

Lots of good info coming from August scrimmages about Syr OL and DL. The word is that they finally look like ACC Lines and there's some depth...especially on the OL. So far, Syr has been an example of a Baylor offense that can't run the ball. Everything suggests they can run the damn ball this year. 

As far as an angle on this game: Syr is motivated to not lose their focus by playing a former coach. That happened last year when Syr met MTSU. They focused on Shafer being on the other sideline...err pressbox.  They are talking openly about that not happening this year. The WMU coach, Lester, is the guy who went to Oregon and recruited Dungey to Syr.

The game is tough. WMU has all the intangibles: night game at home vs a P5 team. If Syr is "focused on being focused and taking care of business" thye come into that environment and pull out the cover.

"Right now I have on 1 PINK high sock and one zebra mid sock with some Pink and Black Jordans ...."

HA. At least your shoes match your socks...I hear women like that...

Good luck this year. It's time for me to smarten up and take a year off from gambling. I'll still check in a few times...if for no other reason than to witness the glorious color-blood-splatter pattern of font-awesomeness.