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@vanzack I am a massive Chelsea fan (ever since exiting the womb basically) and in my youth followed Chelsea all round the country for my sins (they were worse then than they are now) but rarely go now as I’m constantly working on betting football edges. I actually live in London (in the south part) and agree it’s the best city on earth.
be lucky !! |
vanzack | 80 |
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Shame we live on different sides of the world van as I would love to have an in depth chat with you. im a pro gambler myself in the uk (haven’t worked a straight job in 20+ years) I mainly bet on worldwide football with uk horse racing and a couple of other sports thrown in. I will be honest I gave up betting nfl on my own opinion and have followed you for the last 2 years. The reason for that is I could tell by your conversations on here and twitter that not only do you get the sport you understand gambling and are the best I ever seen at putting the 2 together to make substantial units year after year on a sport that obviously 99% of people fail on. Like you said exchanges are the way forward. I use Betfair in the uk as I’m banned from all other betting firms (including family members names) where as there are no limits on exchanges and liquidity on most sports is very good.
anyway keep up the good work sir and have an awesome Christmas from an admirer in the uk |
vanzack | 80 |
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@vanzack My bad van Betfair in the uk have integrated next weeks games with this weeks apologies |
vanzack | 87 |
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Unless you have a 9.5 middle lol |
vanzack | 87 |
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Seahawks are playing cardinals mate |
vanzack | 87 |
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amazed no vikings in there off the loss. especially with miami beating the pats. great spot and line value with minnesota imo
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theclaw | 32 |
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Tjzags
You tell me you watched both games and Detroit dominated Carolina. From what I saw Carolina out yardaged Detroit had nearly equal t o p and were a 2pt conversion away from winning it. Hardly a domination was it
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topshow | 9 |
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Who cares about the line lol I love it when people say that.
Your betting against the line so it means everything !! Yes Seattle beat Detroit and Carolina didn’t but what has that got to do with how todays game plays out. My point re both teams playing detroit is that after all the betting was done Seattle was +3 and Carolina was -4. That equated to today’s game would make the line -10 with hfa added. Now the panthers play at home where they are unbeaten and Seattle has to fly cross country for an early kick off and due to 2 bad performances on the road we can now lay 3. As I heard on one of your American podcasts joes bet teams pros bet numbers lol Be lucky all |
topshow | 9 |
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carolina -3
we get to back a 5-0 home team laying just a field goal here due to back to back ROAD defeats. both teams played detroit recently and based on the closing line of both games we should be seeing carolina -10 here. now why obviously that looks a stretch, laying only 3 is way too far the other way imo and so we get great value betting on the home side here. |
topshow | 9 |
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amazed your not on the panthers. ridiculous line value on them this week. on the respective lines playing detroit, this line comes out panthers -10. now off a couple of defeats we can get the unbeaten at home panthers at a bargain laying a field goal. max bet for me.
good luck this week |
LeagueCapper | 107 |
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massive line value on the raiders here. look at both teams respective lines when they played san francisco. based on those thee raiders should be favs. obviously oaklands performances dont warrant that but getting nigh on 6 points they may only need 14 to cover |
DoctorSuccess | 13 |
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massive line value on pittsburgh here now lc.both teams played baltimore within the last 2 weeks both won and on the respective lines they were for those games the line here would make the steelers a touchdown favourite and adding home field means the line should be pittsburgh -10/-10.5. now whilst we know that is a stretch the numbers were either grossly wrong for both of those games or grossly wrong tonight. taking the +7 wasn't the worst value in the world, but the -3 (-120) im seeing here in the uk is huge value imo. good luck either way |
LeagueCapper | 90 |
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regarding the lay side if someone has a request up that you dont fancy you can lay their bet as long as you have the requesite funds available in your account
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wizebettor | 15 |
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im from england and use betfair all the time.its an exchange where punters bet with each other, betfair holds the money until the result is known and then they take a % from the winner between 2 and 5% depending on how many points you have accumilated. its the biggest gambling site out there and u can literally bet on any sport from any country. it is illegal in america and canada as far as i know despite the fact i can bet on any sport from both of those countries. it is so popular in the uk because it is so difficult to get bets on in our betting shops if you are a proven winner so many people flock to the exchanges where providing the liquidity is there you can bet as much as you want. hope that helps you wizebettor
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wizebettor | 15 |
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*2nd biggest wager of the season on the patriots
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suuma | 133 |
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great write ups as usual suuma but i have to say im astonished you fancy seattle this week.
unbelievably new england are STILL undervalued in the market place. 2 weeks ago new england were laying 5.5 to buffalo on the road and won comfortably. last week seattle were laying 5.5 at home to the bills and fell over the line. that equates to this line being -8 on a neutral field and -11/12 at gillette so there is massive line value there. throw in the situational spot as well new england rested and refreshed off the bye while meanwhile seattle on a short week going coast to coast and it all equates to what will be my 2nd biggest wager on the patriots (already locked in -7). also worth noting that seattle has been in a couple of wars recently and their defense as good as it is was getting gashed by the bills running backs on monday night. they just look plain tired to me having been on the field so long. so unless russell wilson plays out of his mind i dont see how seattle keeps this close. every edge in the game is in new englands favour and i think they re one fine bet. apologies for cluttering up your thread with this post |
suuma | 133 |
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cheers maf good to see ya
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topshow | 5 |
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2-0 with a push last week
onto week 8 and 2 plays one of which i think im the only person on the planet playing buffalo +6.5 yep this is the stinky one but if we look into the line we can see some serious value with the bills here. i have both teams home field at 4 so if they played this game at gillette tomorrow the pats would be laying 14.5. last week buffalo were 2.5 favs at miami so this line is saying new england would be laying 17 pts to miami on a neutral field (not in a million years !!). i think the bills are the play here and i might be the only person on this forum who thinks that (suits me fine) indianapolis +3 really like this play and again we are getting some great line value. flip the venues and kc are laying 10 here. last week they layed 7 to new orleans and there is no way the saints are a field goal better than indy on a neutral. at least 3 points of value here imo which tells me the kansas city stock is getting a bit expensive and a fade is warranted. good luck to all this week |
topshow | 5 |
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2-0-1 but a slightly sour taste in the mouth with the chiefs up 21-7 and not clinching the deal. still it took a late field goal to secure the push so no biggy
ytd 9-3-1 (75%) |
topshow | 7 |
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oakland cost me the sweep last week but i will take 4-1 all day everyday !!
onto week 7 and 3 lines that are hard to justify imo miami +3 this line equates to buffalo laying 10 at home to the dolphins. last week they laid 10.5 to the worst/2nd worst team in the league (49ers). miami would definately not be pick em on a neutral field with san fran. we are getting at least 3pts worth of line value here imo. kansas city -6 im not sold on kc as a team yet (but giving both teams 4pts for home field) this line makes new orleans -2 if we flip the venues. i would make kc slight favs in that game so once again we are getting at least a field goal worth of value in the line. philadelphia +3 buy low sell high and right now minnys stock is as high as its been. in their last 2 games both at home they layed 3.5 to the giants and 6 to houston. this line equates to minnesota -9 at home so are we saying the giants are 5.5 pts better than philly and houston is 3 pts better. no of course not !!! the fact of the matter is that minnesota is now overvalued and phillys stock has dropped after 2 defeats. the perfect storm good luck to all this week |
topshow | 7 |
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