YACKER

2-1 (+1.9 UNITS)

1-0 yesterday with a 2 unit winner (Troy/App St OVER)

Going back to the land of totals for tonights play...

UNDER 139 UK/MSU (2 UNITS) - Going to keep this pretty simple. First of all I don't see UK losing 3 in a row especially playing at Rupp. This MSU team is not a good 3PT sshooting team (343rd in 3PT %). They rely heavily on points in the paint. Kentucky is long and their height advantage on the floor will make it difficult around the bucket. Alabama made it tough for MSU on Saturday around the bucket due to length and UK is on another level. MSU will want to take good shots so they don't let UK get out in transition. MSU is well coached and a very good defensive team. Without the threat of shooters I believe MSU will keep dribblers in front and rebound the ball well. There are no numbers that lend me to think either team gets to more than 75 and and I expect a UK to eventually pull away. Those late game fouls won't help the total either with both teams struggling at the FT line.

ONE UNIT PLAYS:

Western MI +1.5 v Toledo (-105)

Fairfield +1 v Rider (-109)

Creighton -2 @ St John (-105)

Minnesota -1.5 v Northwestern (-113)

OVER 150.5 Troy v App St (2 UNITS) - solid W! 

2-1 (+1.9 Units)

1-1 on posted picks

Wish I had more time to post but I really like the play tonight and wanted to post it here...

OVER 150.5 Troy v App St (2 UNITS) - Skinny card usually means very sharp lines but I think this on is off. First of all these two defenses are very poor. App St is 240th in DEF EFF and Troy is 256th. App St wants to get the game going up and down and I don't see Troy trying to keep that from happening. Both of these teams will fire the 3PA up. App St is 44th and Troy is 19th in 3PA/FGA. These two defenses are two of the worst in defending the 3PT shot. Troy is 296th and App St is 292nd. How bad is App St's defense? They just gave up 83 points to a really bad South Alabama offensive team. I could give 15 more reasons as to why I like the over but I don't see either team on one day's rest being real interested on the defensive end.

Haven't posted here in years. Gonna post a few picks from time to time...

Texas A&M -10 v Ole Miss hhhh- Let's get the obvious out of the way first. A&M is 0-5 in SEC and in desperate need of a win. They finally had their pieces back together in their last game after injuries and suspensions rocked their roster. That UT team is really good and not the best matchup for a team to play on the road trying to get their chemistry back. Ole Miss has lost by 19,11,15 in true road games. They are coming off an impressive home win over Florida but this has been a team that has performed poorly on the road.

In their three games on the road the Rebels have been awful from 3PT range. This isn't a good 3PT shooting team but the road has been even worse...5-18 v MTSU, 6-26 v Georgia, and 8-29 v Auburn. Awful! Couple those numbers with A&M's Elite ability to defend and the large advantage on the boards I don't see any way a motivated A&M doesn't have their way with what may be a flat Ole Miss squad.

UNDER 121.5 Cinci/UCF - Cinci is giving up .85 points per possession in conference play. UCF giving up .79 points per possession in conf play.

These teams are 292nd and 303rd in pace of play. 

They are 3rd and 4th in defensive efficiency

They are 7th and 9th in effective FG% defense. 

On top of that UCF is just a bad offensive team. 

I have this game between 105-115 points. I actually have a lean to UCF but after looking at the numbers above I can't see this one getting crazy in the scoring column. 

52-39 (+8.75 UNITS)

3-6 on Saturday...

Western Carolina -130 (1 UNIT) - WCU is 4-0 in SoCon play (best start since 94-95) and draw Elon tonight to close their current homestand. I was on both of these teams on Saturday with both failing to cover. WCU did manage to tough out a win over UNCG despite 1-13 shooting from 3PT range. They did convert 31-38 FT's and outscored UNCG in the paint. They were down with 5 minutes to play before finishing strong to close out the game. That type of win is a confidence booster for this team that has no SR's on the roster. Elon is coming off a loss to App St on Saturday. They led by as many as 12 in the first half before App St stormed back to tie and eventually pulled away for a 10 point win. This Elon team is very perimeter oriented and managed to make only 4 3PT's on Saturday. They get very little in the paint and struggle to get to the FT line. Earlier this year I talked about this team's desire to be better on defense this year but the last few games have been a struggle defensively. Can Elon expect another 1-13 night from WCU tonight? Elon is 299th in 3PT% defense so I don't expect that. Elon may find it tough to get good looks from 3PT range against a WCU defense that ranks 38th in 3PT% defense. The quotes from Elon's coach after Saturday's defeat have me a little worried as well..“I thought our guys battled and competed tonight, but we didn’t make enough plays or do the little things we needed to do in the second half in order to win the game," said Elon head coach Matt Matheny. "I like the way we started, but the run they had to end the first half gave [Appalachian State] a lot of momentum moving forward." That sounds like a coach trying to keep his team from getting down on itself but how can you be happy with a defensive effort that gave up 80 points? Looks like Elon is struggling to maintain its defensive intensity and that spells trouble against a WCU with a lot of confidence playing at home.

Few other notes:

I lean GA Southern tonight against Davidson. The line has moved to 13. GA Southern defends the three very well and play at a snail's pace. I may end up adding to card.

I am hoping for an impressive effort tonight from the College of Charleston. They are on the road against a bad Citadel team but I can't lay 14.5 on the road. If they hammer The Citadel tonight and GA Southern gets beat soundly by Davidson tonight we should get a nice line with GA Southern at home against Charleston on Thursday night. Charleston will be looking ahead to their meeting with Davidson on Saturday.

Wofford is laying 7 at Furman tonight. Wofford is very good defensively but can they cover 7 on the road with an inconsistent offense? They played well at home against GA Southern on Saturday. Furman is coming a pretty solid effort at home against SoCon favorite Davidson and I wonder how much they have left in the tank tonight? Furman's only DI win was over Presbyterian. This game has been a decent rivalry over the last couple of years but Wofford managed to sweep Furman last year.

Don't know the kid that fouled but I hope he wakes up tomorrow without a scholarship! DUMBASS!!!

Buying out of Texas A&M play...