No writeups. Thanksgiving. Family. I think the 50 people that will be at my house tomorrow will know quickly what my priorities are lol.
Friday Nov 23.... Round 2 begins...
Iran +320 (risk .75 units)
Senegal -155 (win 2 units)
Netherlands -125 (win 1.5 units)
England -168 (win 2 units)
GL all. Happy Thanksgiving!
WC Record: -2.21 units
Pending Futures:
Senegal to qualify +115 (1 unit)
Qatar exactly 0 points +300 (.5 unit)
Qatar under 2.5 points -130 (2 units)
England to win the group -260 (.5 unit win)
Poland to qualify -110 (2 units)
Denmark to win group +220 (1 unit)
Australia under 1.5 points +120 (1 unit)
Germany to win group +110 (2 units)
Japan to qualify +350 (.5 unit)
Croatia to win group +225 (1 unit)
Morocco to qualify +210 (1 unit)
Belgium not to qualify +430 (.5 unit)
Serbia to qualify +105 (1.5 units)
S Korea to qualify +235 (1 unit)
Portugal to win the group -150 (3 units win)
Portugal to win the WC +1600 (1 unit)
Argentina to win the WC +550 (1.5 units)
WC Game Bets Pending:
THURSDAY
Switzerland / Cameroon - under 2.25 -115 (1.5 units)
Uruguay / S Korea - S Korea +.5 +120 (1 unit)
Portugal / Ghana - No bet
Brazil / Serbia - Serbia +1 +105 (1 unit)
FRIDAY
Iran / Wales - Iran +320 (risk .75 units)
Senegal / Qatar - Senegal -155 (win 2 units)
Netherlands / Ecuador - Netherlands -125 (win 1.5 units)
England / USA - England -168 (win 2 units)
Van already touched on it, but Canada really had a brutal result. It's made worse by the fact that not netting "any" goals may cost them to advance. Their remaining games against Morocco and Croatia will also be challenging for them. For Belgium , they will likely get through, but boy, is this team a shadow of its former self. Value against in knockout rounds may be appealing.
In the other Group F game, Croatia looked vulnerable as well. It sure looks like these two will get through, because neither Canada or Morocco can "close the deal" on good opportunities to get goals. Crotia look like a clear fade in knockout rounds potentially as well. We shall see
Spain looked great today, but they cannot afford to get complacent. They will face a hungry Germany team looking to get points.
IF Germany manage to get the W against Spain, and that's a big if, this group is gonna get real interesting. There is good reason why Spain continued to pour it on, just in case that goal differential comes in to play.
You got Portugal and Argentina 2win WC. I got Brazil 2go all da way with their 2 shut down goalkeepers. This time around Brazil have couple young bucks 2accommodate Neymar. They're due 2take home another WC.
Brazil +400 Heavy 
stack
May the best cappers win hahaha. Enjoy
Saturday Nov 26
Tunisia / Australia – Tunisia +120 (1 unit) – Small wager here on Tunisia. Australia have trouble defending, and Tunisia should be able to get some good opportunities here against an Australia side that will have trouble defending the speed of Tunisia. Both sides will be hungry for a win – and need to go for it to have any thoughts of advancing. This is the game that puts one of these teams in contention, and a draw serves neither. Predicted Final Score: Tunisia 2 Australia 1
Poland / Saudi Arabia – Poland -130 (win 2.5 units) – Great spot here to bet Poland coming off of the last rounds results. Saudi really won the match against Argentina (still a shock to type that) with two outstanding individual goals and lots of defending. I am betting that it was a one off – and that the possession and constant pressure they should be under in this one will not yield the same result. Poland just have too much firepower – and the only way they have issues in this one is on the counterattack – which I certainly hope is being addressed in the Poland camp. Must win game for Poland to advance. Predicted Final Score: Poland 2 Saudi 0
France / Denmark – Denmark +.5 +115 (1 unit) – Yes, it is very hard to bet against France. This will be the third time these sides have met in competitive matches in the last 5 months. The previous two went to Denmark – and they really deserved both. France looked ridiculous against Australia – the speed and passing speed were the best we have seen so far in this WC. But there are injuries, and it was Australia – and Denmark plays a style that seems to favor them against France. Denmark comes out and plays their game – 5 in the back – good wingback play – and gets a result. Predicted Final Score France 1 Denmark 1
Argentina / Mexico – No Bet – I do favor Argentina here – but I am not willing to put money on them based on expectations until I see them put a solid performance in. The odds are just too much for my risk tolerance – although I do see Argentina winning here. Mexico can defend well – and if Poland beats Saudi in the early match as I expect them to – Mexico will know that a draw here means all they have to do is beat Saudi in their last match to advance. I see a very tight match with lots of fouls and frustrating play, but Argentina’s quality shows through. Predicted Final Score Argentina 1 Mexico 0
We will see what happens when Spain plays a real team...
Will be interesting.
@vanzack
Thank you for such thoughtful write-ups and good information. I have a question for you. I am new to soccer betting and am curious your thoughts on 3-way vs 2-way betting and how to determine value.
For example, I see Poland at -135 to win over the Saudis on 3-way betting and -360 to win on 2-way betting (push if a draw). The 2-way odds 'seem' pricy but I am curious if there's a way to determine value comparing the two lines. If 2-way odds were something like -200, this would be a no-brainer in my opinion (obviously not a real line but using this hypothetical to illustrate that in my opinion, the 2-way bet would be a no brainer). Curious your thoughts. Thanks
Hey Van just wanted to pop in and say thanks for posting these up makes for an exciting month of action every four years that I would be clueless on without your write-ups. Especially love the post-mortems; gives me a lot more appreciation for what I just watched vs my own observations that are usually as deep as "Belgium sucks".
[Quote: Originally Posted by matt--damon]@vanzack Thank you for such thoughtful write-ups and good information. I have a question for you. I am new to soccer betting and am curious your thoughts on 3-way vs 2-way betting and how to determine value. For example, I see Poland at -135 to win over the Saudis on 3-way betting and -360 to win on 2-way betting (push if a draw). The 2-way odds 'seem' pricy but I am curious if there's a way to determine value comparing the two lines. If 2-way odds were something like -200, this would be a no-brainer in my opinion (obviously not a real line but using this hypothetical to illustrate that in my opinion, the 2-way bet would be a no brainer). Curious your thoughts. Thanks[/Quote
I can give you my opinion for what it is worth. If you like Poland to win you have to bet into the 3 way tie line. If you are a little unsure than I would not bet the game. Laying Over -200 will get you broke really fast unless you are betting a parlay laying -300 to -1000 with 4-6 teams. At that point I would only play .25 unit as There always seems to be one team that will screw it up.
So, to summarize get the best odds on any team you feel will win the game. Also, another reason this bet, or no tie odds are so high is due to Double chance betting also being figured into a books vig. Most people do not take that into account.
Van what do you think?
USA / England post mortem….
Overall, there was clearly a better side today – and it was the US. England’s weaknesses were exposed – and their willingness to allow the US to dictate pace and control for extended periods of time were surprising.
But the counterpoint that can’t be ignored was the situation. Because of the Iran victory earlier in the day – a draw helped England but effectively did nothing for the US. Did that come in to the tactics of both sides? Not sure we will ever know, but it is the glasses through which this match has to be viewed with any analysis.
I thought the number one factor in the match was that England gave tons of space to the US – on and off the ball. It was a “bend but don’t break” mentality – a very dangerous game – but I also think coming in to the tournament this is Englands weakness and what will get them beat eventually. They don’t have the midfield speed to press and turnover opposition possession, so they funnel to the middle and then defend in numbers. Against the US – when you need a draw – fine. But against teams that move the ball like France, Brazil etc? Not going to cut it.
But there were long stretches of pressure from the US that cant be denied. They were the aggressors – they had the better chances – and they dictated the pace of the match. England largely were non-threatening in possession – choosing to knock it around when the US wasn’t pressing. They were always fine with taking the air out of the ball, and if a goal comes… Great – but if it doesn’t it really doesn’t hurt them. This was totally evident in the way they approached this match.
There was a point at about 75 minutes where I was thinking the US had 2 choices: really go for it because a draw means nothing – at the risk of losing OR take what is essentially a moral victory with a draw. It is a complicated decision – and one that I can see the debate on either side. I think I would have gone for it – but the counterpoint is that a draw against England gives them a lot of confidence heading in to a must win against Iran where as a loss would have been deflating.
Either way, in the end – my gut is that this match had less to do with what would happen if they played again outside of the structure of group play – and a whole lot more to do with these particular set of circumstances. Neither of these teams are contenders – both will be exposed. Part of the challenge that I face in trying to put up picks early is that I can’t react to these situational spots – like Iran winning today and the effect on this match. I might have to rethink it.
The 2 way line (without a draw) is called a "PK".
So if you want to create your own 2 way PK from a 3 way line.... You can bet Poland at -135, and then bet the draw so that if it wins, you have covered your risk on Poland. There are calculators online to show you how to do this. But sometimes - you can create your own 2 way line that has better odds by using the 3 way lines.
Hope that makes sense.
Belgium does suck!!!!
Good to see you GAM. Thanks for your message.
hey buddy. My book actually has a double chance with draw or win. I’m not sure that all books do.
Initial thoughts on the US Iran game?
Wow, there as so many points to talk about w/ this USA squad. For starters, and Van addressed this, England giving space to the Americans was surprising. The back line of the USA is not very good IMO, particularly Zimmerman. He damn near gave the game away late with his short attempted pass to midfield that was immediately intercepted and led to a set piece, and he "did" give the last game away w/ his dumb penalty against Bale. England gave way more respect than deserved to this group, particularly against this back line. A final note on the back line; they are sometimes "static" with the ball w/ no pressure on them. They sit there with no ability/confidence to dribble up field and press on w/ the attack. That is worrisome that this is the best we got on defense this tournament, but pleased w/ the midfield and forwards. They played on par w/ the English today
Thanks! That makes perfect sense.
Have to for the first time disagree with you. We are picking winners or losers. Double chance has a lot more weight to the odds than you may think. This is not about picking ties. Only winners and losers. Why would anyone pick into a tie? I mean really are you going to pick into a tie now. Or even in the elimination games. I mean really have you been picking into ties?
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