USA / Wales post mortem….
Where do I begin? It was really a tale of two segments….
For the first 35 minutes, the USA were ridiculously good. They employed “pressure”, not necessarily a press, but every time the back two of Wales had possession in their own third just outside of the box – Weah, Seargent, and Pulisic gave them zero room to operate. It resulted in Wales not being able to get out of their own half, and not being able to string 3 passes together (waiting to see some heat maps and stats for specifics). It resulted in domination.
Zero real attempts on goal for Wales, and the inevitable US breakthrough with a really nice finish from Weah and great buildup from Pulisic. 1-0, and USA in total control ready to step on the throats of the Welsh. Not so fast….
A subtle adjustment to the height of the pressure – from the Welsh edge of the penalty box to about 20 yards deeper towards the midline gave the Welsh the space they needed in the back to be able to get back in to the game. Maybe you could say that 90 minutes of the high pressure was impossible – and I get it – but for the remainder of the game the Welsh were allowed the field position to and space to be able to string passes together. This… And the substitution of Moore at HT for the Welsh – made the difference as the second half was like watching a different game altogether.
The Americans never really adjusted to Moore’s hold up play and started to be sloppy in possession. A turnover here, a turnover there – and the Welsh were suddenly looking really threatening. The US were obviously on their heels at about 60 minutes – but Berhalter made no adjustments until it was too late. The Welsh had time on the ball – were starting to penetrate the wings – and the foul by Zimmerman was classic MLS amateur stuff. The Welsh player had his back to goal, at the edge of the box – not in a dangerous position receiving a ball moving away from goal – with defensive cover behind. No reason to foul there whatsoever.
This singular Welsh goal could be the difference of advancing for the US. The US gets England in the second game, and the Welsh the third. England already has a 6-2 win on the board, and if they beat the US, they will likely rotate the squad for the final match against Wales. Which means Wales could likely face a weaker England than the US does – and advancing all depends on who does better against England and Iran (for Wales and the US).
The US should be blasted for this. It is inexcusable. But it is what mediocre teams do. And mediocre coaches do.
Wednesday Nov 22
Morocco / Croatia – Croatia +110 (1 unit) – I really won’t be surprised if Morocco give Croatia all they can handle here – but this line is just too short for the experience and organization that Croatia brings. Croatia's midfield should be a problem for Morocco – the relentless chasing that Croatia likes to induce will wear on Morocco. Close match – and better matchups moving forward for Morocco. Predicted Final Score Croatia 1 Morocco 0
Germany / Japan – Draw +380 (risk .5 unit) – Going to take a shot on a long odds draw here. Germany the much better side, but Japan play together a lot and are organized and can defend. First round games are very tight – and sides that play together at club level and same leagues usually have an advantage – and a team like Germany will take time to hit in to full gear. I expect 70% German possession, but Japan should be able to limit the chances, and hit on the counter. Low scoring draw possible… Predicted Final Score Germany 2 Japan 1
Spain / Costa Rica – No Bet – Spain will struggle with inconsistent scoring – but not in this game. Costa Rica really cant match up at all – and will likely bunker in and be defending all match. Spain might score 1, 2, 3, 4…. Who knows. Predicted final score Spain 2 Costa Rica 0
Belgium / Canada – Canada +1 +100 (1 unit) – I think Canada can give Belgium a game here if they can get over their nerves and deal with the midfield pace of Belgium. Lukaku is out for this one for Belgium, so likely Batshuayi takes his place – but there is a big dropoff there in hold up and physical play. Belgium has an aging defense past it’s prime – and the speed up top for Canada could give them fits on the counter attack if they can turn Belgium over in midfield. Easier said than done – but I think this game stays close – and more likely that Canada can squeeze a result than Belgium a multi-goal win. Predicted final score Belgium 2 Canada 1
The U.S. really screwed themselves today. They could have put themselves in great position to advance. But now, they are left w losing to England and dogfighting Wales for the rest of group play. It may come down to goal differential between Wales and U.S., w both beating Iran and losing to England .
On a lighter note, that goal by the U.S. was a thing of beauty, something you expect from the higher echelon European teams. But the U.S. play is still filled w too much inconsistency, and nervous, frenetic energy when solid play is needed. We just don't have that quality of player, top to bottom, never have.
For a team that is ranked top 10 by FIFA and expected to threaten, that was a pretty uninspiring performance by the Dutch. They really didn't display any ability to build the attack., resulting in a strategy of Too many long ball attempts over the top, (that are low percentage, and failed today). I'm beginning to believe some of the material I've been reading that says this Dutch midfield is light.
Argentina / Saudi Arabia post mortem….
If not the biggest upset in the history of the WC, one of them for sure. Saudi Arabia put together two great individual pieces of play to get their two goals within a blistering 5 minutes and then hung on for dear life. Every stat favored the Argentinians – the most glaring could be the XG of 2.15 to .15 (yes, .15 XG turned in to 2 goals for Saudi).
Herve Renard – the most Dangerous man in the World Cup (stay thirsty my friends) – decided he was going to employ the 1970’s offside trap with the highest defensive line possible. As a result – Argentina were called offside 7 times in the first half – more than any team at the 2018 WC in any game. They got their first goal on a wrestling tackle on a corner kick which resulted in a PK, but couldn’t seem to breach the high line which is a very interesting development for future opponents of Argentina.
Even with that – Saudi had zero attempts on goal in the first half – and looked like they were happy with a 0-1. Until the beginning of the second half – when it has to be said – two incredibly well taken micro chances turned in to goals. The second was possibly the goal of the tournament – beating 4 defenders to curl far post past the diving Martinez and in to the upper corner. From there – it was all hands on deck defending – which they did very well.
I am not sure DiMaria really adds anything to this squad anymore, as he was constantly losing the ball and not effective. But the 36 match unbeaten streak is over for Tina, and now the group is as even as possible – with all 4 teams having a relatively equal chance of advancing (before the Poland / Mexico match). Argentina will likely have to beat them both.
Denmark / Tunisia post mortem….
Denmark had another shutout – their 9 in their last 11 matches. But it wasn’t enough as they couldn’t put together enough creativity to break down the stubborn Tunisian defense. The passing wasn’t quick enough for the Danes – and they really did miss an absolute sitter on the goal line in the 70 minute off of a corner kick that just needed any touch to go in. It was a whopping .9 XG (meaning 90% a goal), but it was duffed.
The XG finished 1.7 to .96 in favor of the Danes – but the .96 had a .5 chance that was offside but not called because Schmeichel made a great save that forced a corner. Had that Tunisian chance gone in – VAR would have reviewed to an offside.
Most of the chances in this match came from set pieces – notably corner kicks – as there were 20 corners that resulted in 14 shots. Denmark really did have the serious chances – and had the sitter on the 70 minute gone in – it would have been totally different. I don’t think the Danes will be too worried about this result – and I do think the score flatters Tunisia – but they did get the result and the point which opens the group up for the French later today.
More speed and quick passing would have served the Danes well today – and in the end they cant be a set piece team to beat better competition down the road. Tunisia looked solid – but they will still struggle to create real chances against either Australia or France upcoming.
Agree 100.
Can't concede early.
The Dutch lack a world class striker. So their goals will likely come from the supporting cast - which will probably be their downfall.
Here's the thing about PKs that I dont understand... Which means it must be much harder to do what I am about to describe than I think it is....
Anything waist high or higher is a goal no matter where you put it.
I dont get how 1 guy on a starting 11 cant kick it in the upper half of the goal with consistency. I watch a ridiculous amount of soccer. This is not a typical "american WC hot take". I just have never had this explained.
Anyway - yes - very disappointing.
@vanzack
My thoughts exactly VZ. You go low and a goalie has a 50% of guessing right. Putting in an upper corner should be something these guys do in their sleep. But maybe it is easier said than done.
Regarldess, the PK was low, weak and there was no deceit in his approach. I expected more from one the worlds best.
on to the next one…
Poland / Mexico post mortem…
The first half looked like Mexico were in charge. Their speed and pace of ball movement was giving trouble to the Poles, as they seemed to always be a step behind the ball movement. But nothing dangerous was created from all of the possession.
Second half things changed a little bit as the Poles took the ball more, and sat on it creating some better passing combinations. But the problem seems to always be that Lewandowski – clearly the best player on the pitch for the Poles – might as well be standing in a corner because he just does not get touches or service. And it was again today – as he was no impact on the game other than drawing the foul that was the reason for the PK – and then missing the PK (had made 68 of 75 in his career). Poland have to figure this out or they will be going home soon.
I don’t really understand the PK strategy of putting it low – any PK waist high or higher is a goal no matter where it is – but hey I am on a computer typing and they are playing.
A game of few chances that looked like it should have had more, and a key PK miss that probably would have been the winner. No matter what they say on TV – both sides are still in great shape to advance based on their results in the next two.
France / Australia post mortem….
Australia score first…. Alarm bells go…. And then get blitzed.
There is one major takeaway here even for the most casual of fan. Speed, ball movement, and speed of ball movement – of France – is the best we have seen by far. The combination play of France in tight spots – and the speed of the ball movement – and the speed of the players (Mbappe specifically) – is like nothing we have seen so far. When these guys are clicking – they are going to be tough to beat even with all of the injuries.
Not much else surprising or noteworthy in this one. France in great shape because of the Denmark draw – but the Danes have a history of beating the French recently – so the group is still up for grabs. But make no mistake – when France play the way they did today – they will be a very tough out.
Thursday Nov 24
I wanted to get the picks up but ran out of steam for the writeups today. Will come back and fill in.
Switzerland / Cameroon – Under 2.25 -115 (1.5 units) – This is a tough group with Brazil and Serbia. Cameroon really is on a bad run of form, but unlike the Cameroonians of the past – they tend to play a very compact style, which should suit them here for their game against Switzerland. Even with Cameroon’s best player an injury concern (Anguissa, likely to play), they should be able to stifle the Swiss lack of midfield creativity and play very defensively. Cameroon’s last 8 competitive matches have gone under 2.5 goals.
The Swiss also struggle to find the net – 7 of their 9 competitive matches in 2022 they managed a goal or less. I think this matchup is two very similar styles, with both strengths being the defensive core – and based on the nature of this game in the group both should come out very tight. Predicted final score: Switzerland 0 Cameroon 0
Uruguay / S Korea – S Korea +.5 +120 (1 unit) – Predicted Final Score: Uruguay 1 S Korea 1
Portugal / Ghana – No Bet – Predicted Final Score: Portugal 2 Ghana 1
Brazil / Serbia – Serbia +1 +105 (1 unit) - Predicted Final Score: Brazil 2 Serbia 1
Van, Thanks so much for the time you put in w these post mortem write-ups. I for one appreciate your work, specifically so on the 'Tina game which I did not record. I thought what's the point of watching it. Lol. But your write up helps fill in the gap on a complete shocker of a result.
@vanzack
I've taken a lot of them. A high shot is hard to do consistently, without missing up or losing control of it outside. Kind of like in the way WC sides play not to lose, few penalty takers want to miss the target and will tend toward the low shot. Even fewer want to just hit it behind the keeper down the middle because it looks really stupid when they don't dive and easily handle your weak shot. But you see them, like Messi's today, struck not all that hard, with tremendous confidence that you've beaten the keeper before you even strike it.
Anyway, a lot depends on the keeper. The ones in my league are older and hitting low is hard for a lot of them to get down for. At this level, PKs are struck so hard that even with the wingspan of most keepers they can only do so much high. But you see plenty of shots (again, like Messi's today) where a keeper who guessed right would be able to reach high and get it. There's something to be said for not committing, which leaves you vulnerable to everything but the one low portion of the one side you've selected.
@vanzack
Van Canada going to surprise alot of people this World Cup if they play to their potential using speed and relentless attack on the offensive side of the pitch Belgium will be on their heels . Canada's defense has improved which no one has mentioned plus our great coaching staff and motivation we have a great chance for another big upset today Good luck brother and thank you for all you do for this forum you are a class act
Running out of time because of Thanksgiving. Will pick up full writeups and post mortems on Friday.
I just go back to the fact that if it is waist high or higher - it is a goal no matter where you put it - and someone on your team should be able to do this with consistency.
Canada coulda shoulda had 3 goals in the first 15 minutes today - and like 2 more the rest of the way. Just a terrible result for them today. Brutal.
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