A few other interesting points about this USA team. When in the attacking 1/3 of the field, they sometimes play out and bring the ball all the way back to their own goal keeper. They did this during Wales game, too. I see very few other teams retreat this hard. Again, I think the back line lacks confidence to hold the line around mid-field in these circumstances and build the attack again. The only positive is that the USA is able to retain possession in these instances, and is playing ultra, ultra SAFE.
A couple final notes about this USA team thus far that I like.. When in trouble in their own end, they normally don't "clear the ball" as prior USA teams used to do. They look for the player to pass to and get them out of trouble. Baby steps. This is what good teams do instead of sporadically clearing the ball w/ no clear target.
Finally, they have the confidence to build the attack. I saw very few, if any, low percentage "over the top" balls from the back line to the forwards. I hate it when teams do this. It's unstructured, and very few times leads to success unless you got really tall guys and are doing it for that reason. Again, baby steps. The fact that this team is the 3rd youngest gives some real promise in the years ahead.
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A few other interesting points about this USA team. When in the attacking 1/3 of the field, they sometimes play out and bring the ball all the way back to their own goal keeper. They did this during Wales game, too. I see very few other teams retreat this hard. Again, I think the back line lacks confidence to hold the line around mid-field in these circumstances and build the attack again. The only positive is that the USA is able to retain possession in these instances, and is playing ultra, ultra SAFE.
A couple final notes about this USA team thus far that I like.. When in trouble in their own end, they normally don't "clear the ball" as prior USA teams used to do. They look for the player to pass to and get them out of trouble. Baby steps. This is what good teams do instead of sporadically clearing the ball w/ no clear target.
Finally, they have the confidence to build the attack. I saw very few, if any, low percentage "over the top" balls from the back line to the forwards. I hate it when teams do this. It's unstructured, and very few times leads to success unless you got really tall guys and are doing it for that reason. Again, baby steps. The fact that this team is the 3rd youngest gives some real promise in the years ahead.
But let's not quit on the USA team we already got ! I'm gonna be real interested to hear what Van has to say leading up to Iran vs. USA. I haven't seen either of the Iran games, but heard Wales played w/ 10 men for a good portion ?
Let's go U-S-A !!
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But let's not quit on the USA team we already got ! I'm gonna be real interested to hear what Van has to say leading up to Iran vs. USA. I haven't seen either of the Iran games, but heard Wales played w/ 10 men for a good portion ?
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by matt--damon: @vanzack Thank you for such thoughtful write-ups and good information. I have a question for you. I am new to soccer betting and am curious your thoughts on 3-way vs 2-way betting and how to determine value. For example, I see Poland at -135 to win over the Saudis on 3-way betting and -360 to win on 2-way betting (push if a draw). The 2-way odds 'seem' pricy but I am curious if there's a way to determine value comparing the two lines. If 2-way odds were something like -200, this would be a no-brainer in my opinion (obviously not a real line but using this hypothetical to illustrate that in my opinion, the 2-way bet would be a no brainer). Curious your thoughts. Thanks The 2 way line (without a draw) is called a "PK". So if you want to create your own 2 way PK from a 3 way line.... You can bet Poland at -135, and then bet the draw so that if it wins, you have covered your risk on Poland. There are calculators online to show you how to do this. But sometimes - you can create your own 2 way line that has better odds by using the 3 way lines. Hope that makes sense. Have to for the first time disagree with you. We are picking winners or losers. Double chance has a lot more weight to the odds than you may think. This is not about picking ties. Only winners and losers. Why would anyone pick into a tie? I mean really are you going to pick into a tie now. Or even in the elimination games. I mean really have you been picking into ties?
I don’t think he was endorsing my play but answering my question about how to view odds on 3-way betting vs pk betting.
I’m admittedly a novice at soccer but seeing 35% of the games end in a draw thus far led me to wonder which bet offered more value.
On a different note, any thoughts on Cameroon v Serbia? I ask since I think there’s value on the dog here but am curious your opinion.
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Quote Originally Posted by gotime:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by matt--damon: @vanzack Thank you for such thoughtful write-ups and good information. I have a question for you. I am new to soccer betting and am curious your thoughts on 3-way vs 2-way betting and how to determine value. For example, I see Poland at -135 to win over the Saudis on 3-way betting and -360 to win on 2-way betting (push if a draw). The 2-way odds 'seem' pricy but I am curious if there's a way to determine value comparing the two lines. If 2-way odds were something like -200, this would be a no-brainer in my opinion (obviously not a real line but using this hypothetical to illustrate that in my opinion, the 2-way bet would be a no brainer). Curious your thoughts. Thanks The 2 way line (without a draw) is called a "PK". So if you want to create your own 2 way PK from a 3 way line.... You can bet Poland at -135, and then bet the draw so that if it wins, you have covered your risk on Poland. There are calculators online to show you how to do this. But sometimes - you can create your own 2 way line that has better odds by using the 3 way lines. Hope that makes sense. Have to for the first time disagree with you. We are picking winners or losers. Double chance has a lot more weight to the odds than you may think. This is not about picking ties. Only winners and losers. Why would anyone pick into a tie? I mean really are you going to pick into a tie now. Or even in the elimination games. I mean really have you been picking into ties?
I don’t think he was endorsing my play but answering my question about how to view odds on 3-way betting vs pk betting.
I’m admittedly a novice at soccer but seeing 35% of the games end in a draw thus far led me to wonder which bet offered more value.
On a different note, any thoughts on Cameroon v Serbia? I ask since I think there’s value on the dog here but am curious your opinion.
Hey Van just wanted to pop in and say thanks for posting these up makes for an exciting month of action every four years that I would be clueless on without your write-ups. Especially love the post-mortems; gives me a lot more appreciation for what I just watched vs my own observations that are usually as deep as "Belgium sucks".
Same here Van
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
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Quote Originally Posted by GAM:
Hey Van just wanted to pop in and say thanks for posting these up makes for an exciting month of action every four years that I would be clueless on without your write-ups. Especially love the post-mortems; gives me a lot more appreciation for what I just watched vs my own observations that are usually as deep as "Belgium sucks".
I noticed that line movement as well. I still feel confident Poland is the right side here.
Maybe a Saudi Priest, Mattress Mack, Floyd Mayweather, Charles Barkley, or Phil Mickleson dropped a few 7 digit wagers…
I’m not keen enough on lineups to know if there was anything that would relate to the movement. All I know is it’s a must win for the Poles and they will find a way to get Lewandowski involved. Which they lacked tremendously vs Mexico.
2-0 Win to Nil. GL.
Thx for all Vanzack!
The impossible only takes longer….
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Quote Originally Posted by vorvan:
Polana open odds -130 and new odds -110
I noticed that line movement as well. I still feel confident Poland is the right side here.
Maybe a Saudi Priest, Mattress Mack, Floyd Mayweather, Charles Barkley, or Phil Mickleson dropped a few 7 digit wagers…
I’m not keen enough on lineups to know if there was anything that would relate to the movement. All I know is it’s a must win for the Poles and they will find a way to get Lewandowski involved. Which they lacked tremendously vs Mexico.
A few other interesting points about this USA team. When in the attacking 1/3 of the field, they sometimes play out and bring the ball all the way back to their own goal keeper. They did this during Wales game, too. I see very few other teams retreat this hard. Again, I think the back line lacks confidence to hold the line around mid-field in these circumstances and build the attack again. The only positive is that the USA is able to retain possession in these instances, and is playing ultra, ultra SAFE. A couple final notes about this USA team thus far that I like.. When in trouble in their own end, they normally don't "clear the ball" as prior USA teams used to do. They look for the player to pass to and get them out of trouble. Baby steps. This is what good teams do instead of sporadically clearing the ball w/ no clear target. Finally, they have the confidence to build the attack. I saw very few, if any, low percentage "over the top" balls from the back line to the forwards. I hate it when teams do this. It's unstructured, and very few times leads to success unless you got really tall guys and are doing it for that reason. Again, baby steps. The fact that this team is the 3rd youngest gives some real promise in the years ahead.
To address your first point... About going back to the keeper.... There are 2 reasons to do this - the first and most obvious is if you are in trouble and have no other choice but to get the ball to safety. The second is tactical - for sides that want to spread the field and the defense. In cases where the defense is compact and set - you can go back to the GK - essentially forcing the defense out of their compact shape and potentially being able to exploit bigger holes created because more space on the field is being utilized.
Playing out of the back - instead of going long ball - is the hallmark of good teams - and a must at this level.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
A few other interesting points about this USA team. When in the attacking 1/3 of the field, they sometimes play out and bring the ball all the way back to their own goal keeper. They did this during Wales game, too. I see very few other teams retreat this hard. Again, I think the back line lacks confidence to hold the line around mid-field in these circumstances and build the attack again. The only positive is that the USA is able to retain possession in these instances, and is playing ultra, ultra SAFE. A couple final notes about this USA team thus far that I like.. When in trouble in their own end, they normally don't "clear the ball" as prior USA teams used to do. They look for the player to pass to and get them out of trouble. Baby steps. This is what good teams do instead of sporadically clearing the ball w/ no clear target. Finally, they have the confidence to build the attack. I saw very few, if any, low percentage "over the top" balls from the back line to the forwards. I hate it when teams do this. It's unstructured, and very few times leads to success unless you got really tall guys and are doing it for that reason. Again, baby steps. The fact that this team is the 3rd youngest gives some real promise in the years ahead.
To address your first point... About going back to the keeper.... There are 2 reasons to do this - the first and most obvious is if you are in trouble and have no other choice but to get the ball to safety. The second is tactical - for sides that want to spread the field and the defense. In cases where the defense is compact and set - you can go back to the GK - essentially forcing the defense out of their compact shape and potentially being able to exploit bigger holes created because more space on the field is being utilized.
Playing out of the back - instead of going long ball - is the hallmark of good teams - and a must at this level.
Van. Do you think Argentina to win it all is still a good bet at +900? If they win today with Mexico I am sure it will go down
Can I say yes now after the 2-0?
I think I would have advised you to hold off on that. I really wasnt confident they would bounce back today. But they did - and everything seems right with the world again.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Quote Originally Posted by M-M:
Van. Do you think Argentina to win it all is still a good bet at +900? If they win today with Mexico I am sure it will go down
Can I say yes now after the 2-0?
I think I would have advised you to hold off on that. I really wasnt confident they would bounce back today. But they did - and everything seems right with the world again.
Pending Futures: Senegal to qualify +115 (1 unit) Qatar exactly 0 points +300 (.5 unit) Qatar under 2.5 points -130 (2 units) England to win the group -260 (.5 unit win) Poland to qualify -110 (2 units) Denmark to win group +220 (1 unit) Australia under 1.5 points +120 (1 unit) Germany to win group +110 (2 units) Japan to qualify +350 (.5 unit) Croatia to win group +225 (1 unit) Morocco to qualify +210 (1 unit) Belgium not to qualify +430 (.5 unit) Serbia to qualify +105 (1.5 units) S Korea to qualify +235 (1 unit) Portugal to win the group -150 (3 units win) Portugal to win the WC +1600 (1 unit) Argentina to win the WC +550 (1.5 units)
Pending Game Wagers: Sunday: Japan / Costa Rica - over 2.25 -120 (1 unit) Morocco / Belgium - Morocco +.5 -115 (2 units) Croatia / Canada - Croatia +115 (2 units) Spain / Germany - Germany +200 (risk 1 unit with Japan D or L, 2 units Japan W)
Monday: Cameroon / Serbia - under 2.5 -115 (2 units) S Korea / Ghana - S Korea +155 (risk 1.5 units) Brazil / Switzerland - Brazil -1 -120 (1 unit) Portugal / Uruguay - over 2.25 -108 (2 units)
GL all
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
WC Record: -.85 units
Pending Futures: Senegal to qualify +115 (1 unit) Qatar exactly 0 points +300 (.5 unit) Qatar under 2.5 points -130 (2 units) England to win the group -260 (.5 unit win) Poland to qualify -110 (2 units) Denmark to win group +220 (1 unit) Australia under 1.5 points +120 (1 unit) Germany to win group +110 (2 units) Japan to qualify +350 (.5 unit) Croatia to win group +225 (1 unit) Morocco to qualify +210 (1 unit) Belgium not to qualify +430 (.5 unit) Serbia to qualify +105 (1.5 units) S Korea to qualify +235 (1 unit) Portugal to win the group -150 (3 units win) Portugal to win the WC +1600 (1 unit) Argentina to win the WC +550 (1.5 units)
Pending Game Wagers: Sunday: Japan / Costa Rica - over 2.25 -120 (1 unit) Morocco / Belgium - Morocco +.5 -115 (2 units) Croatia / Canada - Croatia +115 (2 units) Spain / Germany - Germany +200 (risk 1 unit with Japan D or L, 2 units Japan W)
Monday: Cameroon / Serbia - under 2.5 -115 (2 units) S Korea / Ghana - S Korea +155 (risk 1.5 units) Brazil / Switzerland - Brazil -1 -120 (1 unit) Portugal / Uruguay - over 2.25 -108 (2 units)
Australia did enough vs Tunisia. The final score was definitely flattering to the Socceroos, but soccer is a game of goals and sometimes all it takes is one moment of brilliance to win a match (see Messi vs Mexico). Australia will now head in to their final match with a desperate Denmark side needing a win – while Tunisia have the hopeless task of facing a top form France side needing a win.
Australia had the lowest successful passing percentage in the World Cup so far against Tunisia at 73%. That is normally a recipe for disaster and getting beat – but Tunisia couldn’t capitalize on all of the loose Aussie passing because they weren’t playing tight enough and pressing enough. Every time they turned it over – which was a lot – Australia seemed to be able to scramble back in to position quickly and thwart any danger on the Tunisian counterattack.
Poland played what I consider to be a great tactical match against the Saudis today. The Saudis had 68% possession, but Poland was willing to sit back with the strategy of quantity vs quality. They knew they could give up a bunch of half chances in order to get a handful of great chances – almost always a winning formula in soccer. There were times that they took that a little bit too far – and could have been stung on the PK before the end of the first half – but Poland were the better side with better talent and in the end that is what won out.
Group C is largely in chaos now – with Poland most likely needing a result against a desperate and seemingly improved Argentina side in the final match to advance. The final day in Group C will be chaotic and crazy.
France just looks ridiculous right now. There were periods of the game where the Danes controlled tempo and possession – but Mbappe always looked like he was constantly a step or two away from scoring – and it would be inevitable. Almost every stat favored the French – including Expected Goals of 2.42 to .64.
Not to state the obvious – but the French are going to be a really tough out. On eye test alone, they have been the best and most complete team we have seen of those that have played through 2 matches. It is the speed, and speed of ball movement that sets them apart – and their adaptability to different opposition styles. The Danes meanwhile have put themselves in a win or go home situation against Australia.
Argentina gets out of their messy situation (pun intended) by beating a Mexico team that for the second match in a row show no offensive threat whatsoever. Mexico hasn’t scored a goal in their two matches, and for whatever reason don’t seem all that interested in scoring goals. Mexico were woefully overmatched in the second half – positioned poorly and often late to balls and out of position. The Messi goal was a great case in point – he just was left alone near the center of the top of the box to drift in and shoot with yards of space. Messi. Alone at the top of the box. Enough said.
Mexico have to beat the Saudis by multiple goals, and hope that there isn’t a draw in the Poland / Argentina game. Amazingly – the Mexicans have a better chance to advance than they deserve because of the other results in the group.
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0
Saturday Nov 26 post mortem….
Australia did enough vs Tunisia. The final score was definitely flattering to the Socceroos, but soccer is a game of goals and sometimes all it takes is one moment of brilliance to win a match (see Messi vs Mexico). Australia will now head in to their final match with a desperate Denmark side needing a win – while Tunisia have the hopeless task of facing a top form France side needing a win.
Australia had the lowest successful passing percentage in the World Cup so far against Tunisia at 73%. That is normally a recipe for disaster and getting beat – but Tunisia couldn’t capitalize on all of the loose Aussie passing because they weren’t playing tight enough and pressing enough. Every time they turned it over – which was a lot – Australia seemed to be able to scramble back in to position quickly and thwart any danger on the Tunisian counterattack.
Poland played what I consider to be a great tactical match against the Saudis today. The Saudis had 68% possession, but Poland was willing to sit back with the strategy of quantity vs quality. They knew they could give up a bunch of half chances in order to get a handful of great chances – almost always a winning formula in soccer. There were times that they took that a little bit too far – and could have been stung on the PK before the end of the first half – but Poland were the better side with better talent and in the end that is what won out.
Group C is largely in chaos now – with Poland most likely needing a result against a desperate and seemingly improved Argentina side in the final match to advance. The final day in Group C will be chaotic and crazy.
France just looks ridiculous right now. There were periods of the game where the Danes controlled tempo and possession – but Mbappe always looked like he was constantly a step or two away from scoring – and it would be inevitable. Almost every stat favored the French – including Expected Goals of 2.42 to .64.
Not to state the obvious – but the French are going to be a really tough out. On eye test alone, they have been the best and most complete team we have seen of those that have played through 2 matches. It is the speed, and speed of ball movement that sets them apart – and their adaptability to different opposition styles. The Danes meanwhile have put themselves in a win or go home situation against Australia.
Argentina gets out of their messy situation (pun intended) by beating a Mexico team that for the second match in a row show no offensive threat whatsoever. Mexico hasn’t scored a goal in their two matches, and for whatever reason don’t seem all that interested in scoring goals. Mexico were woefully overmatched in the second half – positioned poorly and often late to balls and out of position. The Messi goal was a great case in point – he just was left alone near the center of the top of the box to drift in and shoot with yards of space. Messi. Alone at the top of the box. Enough said.
Mexico have to beat the Saudis by multiple goals, and hope that there isn’t a draw in the Poland / Argentina game. Amazingly – the Mexicans have a better chance to advance than they deserve because of the other results in the group.
Thanks, Van. I Always appreciate your analysis and feedback. You know, after I posted that, I looked at the common thread of all things I earlier mentioned, and it points to the same thing... " keep possession of the ball" . USA did that quite well. I trust they can do that, and then some, w Iran.
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Thanks, Van. I Always appreciate your analysis and feedback. You know, after I posted that, I looked at the common thread of all things I earlier mentioned, and it points to the same thing... " keep possession of the ball" . USA did that quite well. I trust they can do that, and then some, w Iran.
Thanks, Van. I Always appreciate your analysis and feedback. You know, after I posted that, I looked at the common thread of all things I earlier mentioned, and it points to the same thing... " keep possession of the ball" . USA did that quite well. I trust they can do that, and then some, w Iran.
It is definitely true that if you don't have the ball, you cant score.
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0
Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Thanks, Van. I Always appreciate your analysis and feedback. You know, after I posted that, I looked at the common thread of all things I earlier mentioned, and it points to the same thing... " keep possession of the ball" . USA did that quite well. I trust they can do that, and then some, w Iran.
It is definitely true that if you don't have the ball, you cant score.
Lol... very true, Vfc an . But You'd be surprised how many teams look to hit the home run when singles and RBIs will do just fine. It's all about "efficiency w the ball."
Over the top balls are destructive, and Mexico showed numerous times how this is a feeble attempt to score goals. This is one of the worst Mexico team in years, and their games in qualifying play bear this out
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Lol... very true, Vfc an . But You'd be surprised how many teams look to hit the home run when singles and RBIs will do just fine. It's all about "efficiency w the ball."
Over the top balls are destructive, and Mexico showed numerous times how this is a feeble attempt to score goals. This is one of the worst Mexico team in years, and their games in qualifying play bear this out
Wow, what a development w the Japanese losing earlier today. If they had won, Germany would have been looking at a "must win" vs. Spain. A draw would have done them no good, and their tournament would have been just about over. Now, a draw still gives them some life.
It will be interesting to see how Germany plays it. I still think they come out guns blazing, because they still need help to advance w/ a draw
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Wow, what a development w the Japanese losing earlier today. If they had won, Germany would have been looking at a "must win" vs. Spain. A draw would have done them no good, and their tournament would have been just about over. Now, a draw still gives them some life.
It will be interesting to see how Germany plays it. I still think they come out guns blazing, because they still need help to advance w/ a draw
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Poland to win to nil
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