The bottom of the AL West inspires no stories of grandeur, but someone still has to win tonight between the Oakland A’s and the Los Angeles Angels.
With two relative unknowns starting, my A’s vs. Angels predictions find an edge in doubting one bullpen in particular.
Our free MLB picks will thus scoff at Oakland’s relievers before first pitch at 9:38 ET on Thursday, July 25.
A's vs Angels prediction
My best bet
Angels moneyline (-106 at BetRivers)
My analysis
Let’s be clear: Oakland A's starting righthander Ross Stripling and Los Angeles Angels starting lefthander Kenny Rosenberg are both better at baseball than most of us are at literally anything. They may not be MLB stars or even also-rans, they may be playing on two of the worst teams in all of the league, and this may be the first time you have thought of either at any point this month.
But the fact remains, these are two MLB pitchers. They are plenty good at it. Just not as good as most other pitchers we consider in conversations like this.
Neither should be trusted to last long into tonight’s matchup of the AL West cellar. Stripling hasn't started in two months, returning from a flexor strain in his elbow, and Rosenberg is making his first start of the season. He's appeared just twice this year, throwing 10 innings while giving up seven runs and 12 hits with four walks.
Despite the A’s and Angels having lackluster lineups, neither Stripling nor Rosenberg should hang around tonight.
The ensuing bullpen situation isn't good for Oakland. Across the last month, only nine A’s relievers have thrown at least six innings. Of those nine, only three have ERAs below 3.00. Of those three, both Oswaldo Bido (started two days ago) and Kyle Muller (threw 40 pitches yesterday) will be unavailable tonight.
That leaves Scott Alexander, who hasn't recorded more than four outs or thrown more than 17 pitches in the last month. At some point, probably multiple points, Oakland will turn to an arm more accustomed to failure than to success of late.
Los Angeles has six relievers who have thrown at least eight innings in the last month while enjoying ERAs of 2.03 or lower, and all six might be available tonight.
The Angels have a path toward a decent mound presence tonight. The A’s do not.
A's vs Angels same-game parlay (SGP)
Angels moneyline
First five innings Over 5 run
Kenny Rosenberg Over 14.5 outs
By design, this is a counterintuitive combination. Betting on Rosenberg to last at least five innings runs directly in the face of expecting the first five innings to produce at least five runs, if not half a dozen.
But betting on Rosenberg to last at least five innings is, in fact, a bet that Stripling will have a short leash in his return from injury. Los Angeles can risk a few extra runs on Rosenberg’s ledger because it can also expect to get early access to Oakland’s bullpen.
That counterintuitive combination has logic to it, yet yields an escalated payout because it seems too foolish.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
A's vs Angels odds
A's vs Angels live odds
A's vs Angels opening odds
- Run line: Oakland -1.5 (+130) | Los Angeles +1.5 (-156)
- Moneyline: Oakland -118 | Los Angeles +100
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-105) | Under 9.0 (-115)
A's vs Angels spread and Over/Under analysis
- You can find this run line favoring either team if you shop around amid sportsbooks, but regardless, the +1.5 side will come with heavy juice.
- This total opened at 9.0 runs and climbed on Thursday to 9.5, with some books even juicing the Over.
- The last three games between these two all went Over their totals, each at 9.0 runs.
A's vs Angels trend
Seven of Oakland’s last eight games have gone Over their totals. Find more MLB betting trends for A's vs. Angels.
A's vs Angels game info
| Location: | Angel Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-California, Bally Sports West |
| A's starting pitcher: | Ross Stripling (1-9, 5.82 ERA) |
| Angels starting pitcher: | Kenny Rosenberg (0-0, 6.30 ERA) |
A's vs Angels latest injuries
A's vs Angels weather
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