The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to complete a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday afternoon.
The odds board have this game as a pick’em, with Spencer Arrighetti — the target of our Astros vs. Phillies predictions — taking on a shaky Taijuan Walker. Read more in our MLB picks below.
Astros vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Spencer Arrighetti Over 15.5 outs (-120 via DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Houston Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti doesn’t have the best numbers on the season (6-11, 4.94 ERA) but don’t let that fool you. The rookie right-hander went 4-7 with a 5.63 ERA in the first half and is 2-4 with a 3.44 ERA in his six second-half starts.
Most importantly for this best bet, Arrighetti has been pitching deep into games. He’s gone Over 15.5 outs in all six of those second-half starts and in seven straight going back to the first half. After seemingly having a bit of a shorter leash, the Astros are now letting the rookie ride deeper into games.
It’s also important to note that Arrighetti has done this against some of the best teams in the league. His last seven starts have come against the Rangers, Athletics, Dodgers, Rays, Red Sox, White Sox, and Orioles. He went at least six innings in all but the start against the White Sox, in which he threw 5 2/3 innings to get to 17 outs.
Furthermore, the Astros bullpen has been used a bit much over the past few days. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu both threw double-digit pitches on Sunday and Monday, and their availability for today may be up in the air. They also let Caleb Ferguson go for two innings last night.
There are still a few fresher arms in the ‘pen, but I expect the Astros to continue to let Arrighetti pitch deep into games as he’s done for nearly two months now.
Astros vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Spencer Arrighetti Over 16.5 outs
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases
Brandon Marsh 1+ hits
Bryce Harper is heating up with a six-game hitting streak, including a double in four of his last five contests. He’s slugging .570 at home (.475 on the road) and .518 vs. RHP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Phillies odds
Astros vs Phillies live odds
Astros vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston -110 | Philadelphia -110
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+145) | Philadelphia +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Astros vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Philly's odds haven’t moved much since opening at -108. They’re between -105 and -110 still.
- The Astros are ever-so-slight favorites at -107 and as short as -115 after opening at -108.
- The total is set higher at either 9.5 or 10 across the board after two low-scoring games to start the series.
Astros vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have cashed the moneyline in 40 of their last 57 games at home (+9.95 units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Phillies.
Astros vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Network, NBCS-Philadelphia |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (6-11, 4.94 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Taijuan Walker (3-5, 6.26 ERA) |
Astros vs Phillies latest injuries
Astros vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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