Astros vs Phillies Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Tonight marks the second outing of a three-game set between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies, with the Stros' offense struggling to register runs last night.

Ben Gamel had one of Houston's eight hits in the series opener, but my Astros vs. Phillies predictions don't expect him to have any success tonight. Find out why in my MLB picks for August 27.

Astros vs Phillies prediction

My best bet
Ben Gamel Under 0.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
A couple of bets for me are both "close" on the side and total, like running back the first five Under for a second straight game or taking the value on Houston Astros moneyline. However, there's just enough playable edge to grab them as standalone bets. With that in mind, I've turned to the MLB player props market.

Ben Gamel is on his season's longest-hitting streak, but that number isn't impressive. It's three, a mark he hasn't reached in nearly two calendar years. I think that streak ends tonight, especially considering the pinch-hit risk for him is higher than others — having seen that fate in three of his last four starts.

It also helps he'll be squaring off against Aaron Nola for up to three of his at bats. Like the rest of the most elite pitchers in baseball, Nola is rounding into form as we edge near the postseason.

He's coming off a rough start against the Atlanta Braves (something I don't exactly hate when backing him), but before that, he had made five consecutive starts of more than five innings, allowing two or fewer earned runs. I like him to mow down Gamel here.

Gamel is one of the worst curveball hitters on the Houston roster, and he'll see a lot of variations of it with Nola, such as the knuckle curve or regular curve.

Entering this game, the well-traveled veteran has the third-highest whiff rate against the curve, the worst batting average, and the second-worst wOBA. That's a big issue against a pitcher like Nola, who throws the curveball the most and uses it most frequently for his "put out" pitch because of its effectiveness.

This is easily one of my favorite bets for this game. The methods it can cash are varied and should not be worth more money based on historical precedence.

Astros vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)

Ben Gamel Under 0.5 total bases

Under 9.5

+210 at bet365

I understand Justin Verlander hasn't exactly been Verlander over his recent few starts, and even Nola himself is coming off a rough one. However, similar to last night, I'm backing the veteran, future Hall of Fame pitchers to deliver in a series that's hugely significant to both.

It also doesn't hurt there's not a player on either team who has illustrated much historical dominance against the other option on the mound.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Phillies odds

Astros vs Phillies live odds

Astros vs Phillies opening odds

• Moneyline: Houston +136 | Philadelphia -162
• Run line: Houston +1.5 (-152) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+126)
• Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)

Astros vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Under in these matchups continues to be profitable. After cashing last night, it's now hit in eight consecutive head-to-head matchups.
• Houston has gone 5-5 over the last 10 games, which has lost bettors a small amount of money, -1.22 units.
• In that same time span, Philadelphia has won six of its last 10 games and won bettors about a unit.
• The Phillies have been strong in these head-to-head matchups, winning three of the last four meetings. 

Astros vs Phillies trend

The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+15.40 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Phillies.

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