In 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays were teetering toward a collapse. People were calling for manager John Gibbons to be fired, but then a series in Washington against the Nationals turned everything around.
The 2024 edition of the Blue Jays will have a similar opportunity when they visit Washington for a three-game set this weekend.
The Blue Jays bats have been in shambles, but the MLB odds have them as big favorites against the perpetually struggling Patrick Corbin.
Can Toronto finally get the offense going? I break it all down in my Blue Jays vs. Nationals predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 3.
Blue Jays vs Nationals prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays first-five run line (-132 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
That 2015 Toronto Blue Jays team went on to win the American League East. I’m not saying this version of the Jays is on its way to that, but if it wants to change the course of its season, it should start tonight against the Washington Nationals, who hand the ball to the embattled Patrick Corbin.
The left-hander has consistently been one of the worst starters in baseball over the past several seasons. He’s had an expected ERA above 6.00 in each of the last two years, and this season is no different.
Corbin owns an ugly 6.59 xERA through six starts this season, while his opponent expected batting average of .335 is in the Bottom 1% of big-league pitchers. It gets worse. He’s not striking out anyone and is consistently getting hit hard.
Now, the Blue Jays’ offensive ineptitude has been well-documented through the team’s first 32 games, but they have been a little better against southpaws, ranking 15th in OPS and 12th in wRC+ when digging in against lefties this season.
Toronto counters Corbin with a left-hander of their own with Yusei Kikuchi. There was a time when some thought Kikuchi was going to go down the same path as Corbin, but that feels like a lifetime ago.
The Jays lefty uses his electric fastball combined with a nasty curveball to frustrate hitters. Kikuchi has used those to pith to a 2.97 xERA while striking out more than a batter an inning. He’ll face a Nats’ lineup that ranks 23rd in OPS, 25th in wRC+, and is an average K-rate team when going against left-handed pitchers.
If the Blue Jays can’t score some runs in this matchup against Corbin and the Nationals, it might be time to fire this entire franchise into the sun. That said, things are set up well for them to hold a lead through five innings on Friday night.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Justin Turner Over 1.5 hits (+162 at PROLINE+)
If the Blue Jays bats do break out, I’m betting that Justin Turner will be the catalyst. Turner has been Toronto’s most productive hitter through the first month of the season and the Jays’ slugger is absolutely mashing left-handed pitching this season.
Turner is hitting .298 with four home runs and 15 RBIs so far, and those numbers explode vs. lefties, which means he’s primed for a big night against Corbin. The Nats lefty is giving up a ton of hard contact while Turner is hitting a ridiculous .500 with a 1.444 OPS when facing lefties this season.
Turner also has the most experience against Corbin among Jays’ hitters thanks to his time in the National League, and the numbers are pretty much what you would expect. Turner owns Corbin, getting to him for a .407 xBA and a .886 expected slugging in 42 career at-bats. That includes four doubles and two dingers.
Take a look at Turner to hit another dinger at +300 tonight but my favorite play here is for him to go for multiple hits.
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Blue Jays vs Nationals odds
Blue Jays vs Nationals live odds
Blue Jays vs Nationals opening odds
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 +100 | Washington +1.5 -120
- Moneyline: Toronto -180 | Washington +150
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Blue Jays vs Nationals spread and Over/Under analysis
- Despite losing seven of their last nine games, the Blue Jays opened this matchup as -180 favorites, and some sportsbooks are starting to move them to the -200 range...
- That's the Patrick Corbin effect. The Nationals have lost four of Corbin's six starts. The losses all came by multiple runs and they needed to score seven-plus runs to get the wins.
- The total hit the board at 9, but there are some 8.5s starting to pop up...
- That's the Blue Jays hitting effect. Toronto has scored three runs or fewer in nine of its last 11 games, while Kikuchi should be effective against a struggling Washington lineup.
Blue Jays vs Nationals trend
The Blue Jays have played to the Under in eight of their last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Nationals
Blue Jays vs Nationals game info
| Location: | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (2-2, 2.94 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher: | Patrick Corbin (0-3, 6.82 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Nationals latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Nationals weather
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