Vladimir Guerro Jr. literally dropped the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays last night. A costly error led to three unearned runs in what was an eventual 3-2 win for the Kansas City Royals.
Vladdy will try to redeem himself and lead the Blue Jays to a win in tonight’s Game 3. The MLB odds have Toronto as favorites as Yariel Rodriguez is set to make this third start as a Blue Jay.
I break it all down in my Blue Jays vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, April 24.
Blue Jays vs Royals prediction
My best bet
Yariel Rodriguez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-135 at PROLINE+)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Even though it was just a 3-2 final, yesterday’s loss felt like a tough pill to swallow for the Toronto Blue Jays. That said, the Jays are in a position to keep a certain trend going in tonight’s Game 3.
Yes, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gift warped a win for the Kansas City Royals yesterday, but that didn’t change the fact that KC is struggling at the dish lately and Toronto is having a pretty good run of starting pitching.
The Royals are averaging 3.3 runs per game over their last nine games and have plated three runs or fewer six times over that stretch. They are hitting just .199 and rank 24th in OPS over that stretch and while KC doesn’t strike out a ton, at 20% vs. right-handed pitchers, it’s enough to have me looking at the Over 4.5 strikeouts for Yariel Rodriguez.
It’s clear that the Blue Jays are still stretching out the Cuban pitcher, as he has pitched 3 2/3 and 4 innings in his first two starts. But even in limited innings the right-hander is showing off his nasty stuff and is racking up the punchouts.
Rodriguez has recorded 13 strikeouts in just 7 2/3 innings. That’s a ridiculous 15.3 Ks per nine innings. And it should be noted that seven of those strikeouts came against the San Diego Padres, who strike out at an even lower rate than the Royals (19.8%)
Five strikeouts is more than realistic for Rodriguez in this spot and our Covers Prop Projections have him at 4.9 Ks.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 hits (+135 at PROLINE+)
Blue Jays star shortstop Bo Bichette is looking like his old self after a slow start to the season. Slow starts in baseball are not uncommon, but we should have known it wasn’t going to last long for Bo.
Bichette is one of the best hitters in baseball in part due to his ability to cover the whole plate and willingness to take the ball to the opposite field. That allows him to hit almost every pitch. Which is what he’s been doing lately.
Bo now has hits in 14 of his last 16 games, hitting .290 over that stretch and I like his chances of having a good night at the dish against Royals starter Alec Marsh.
Marsh is pitching to a 4.07 expected ERA over four starts this season but more importantly for us, he’s surrendering a .283 expected batting average to opponents. That ranks in the 18th percentile in all of baseball.
Bo looks like a good bet to have a multi-hit game at solid plus money.
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Blue Jays vs Royals odds
Blue Jays vs Royals live odds
Blue Jays vs Royals opening odds
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 +145 | Kansas City +1.5 -170
- Moneyline: Toronto -115 | Kansas City -105
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Blue Jays vs Royals spread and Over/Under analysis
- This American League matchup opened close to a coin flip with the Blue Jays as -115 favorites and it's the Jays who have seen the early action moving to -135.
- I would lean toward the Jays on the five-inning moneyline in this matchup. Rodriguez looks like the better of the two starters at the moment while the Royals are struggling to score.
- The total hit the board at 9 and has come down to 8.5.
- The first two games of this series have played Under the number and I wouldn't be shocked if it happened again. But once again, the five-inning total may be the play here with two struggling bullpens.
Blue Jays vs Royals trend
The Royals have played to the Under in seven of their last nine games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Royals
Blue Jays vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Kansas City |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yariel Rodriguez (0-0, 2.35 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Alec Marsh (3-0, 3.22 ERA) |
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