The Home Run Jacket is back! Let’s hope it also means the return of some better baseball from the Toronto Blue Jays as they open a four-game series against the Detroit Tigers tonight at Comerica Park.
Blue Jays vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Under 4.5 first five innings (-139 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays hit the road with the home run jacket for the first time this season, having won three of their last four. But when two of the wins and a shutout loss came against the lowly Chicago White Sox, those results need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Despite some players showing some signs of life, this Blue Jays lineup is still underperforming and that could be a problem when they dig into the batter’s box against Detroit Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty. Toronto ranks 20th in batting average, 23rd in OPS, and 18th in wRC+ when facing righties, and Flaherty has been a great one this season.
The 28-year-old is pitching to a 2.91 expected ERA and is limiting opponents to a .235 expected batting average while his 33% strikeout rate is the highest of his career. He also made two starts against the Blue Jays last season, holding them to one run on four hits while striking out 12 over 11 innings of work.
The Blue Jays' saving grace here is that they counter Flaherty with Kevin Gausman. While the right-hander hasn’t been as dominant as he’s been the last couple of seasons, he looks like he’s starting to find his groove.
Gausman has a 3.00 ERA and a 2.74 FIP over his last six starts while striking out a batter per inning. The veteran right-hander also made two starts against the Tigers last season, allowing five runs on 10 hits with 18 Ks in 14 innings pitched.
While the Tigers are much improved this season, the lineup is still middling. Detroit ranks 17th in batting average, 16th in OPS and wRC+, and has the eighth-highest K-rate vs. righties this season.
These two guys facing suspect lineups in a pitcher's ballpark like Comerica? The only conclusion is pitching dominates early.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-125 at PROLINE+)
Let’s double down on the Gausman performance tonight by taking the Over 5.5 on his strikeout prop. One of the biggest differences for Gausman at this point this season has been the strikeouts haven’t been there in the same abundance as he's become accustomed to.
His 22.6% strikeout rate through nine starts is a dramatic falloff from last season's 31.1%. Remember, this guy's K-rate has been 30.2% over the last four seasons.
So, I’m not reading into those early low strikeout numbers. Plus, it looks like they are starting to return. Gausman has punched out 20 batters in just 14 1/3 innings pitched over his last three starts and would have gone Over 5.5 in all three. He also went over this number in both starts against Detroit last season.
As noted, the Tigers are a little swing-happy this season, striking out 24% of the time vs. righties. Our Covers Prop Projections have Gausman at 5.9 strikeouts, so I’m willing to bet the Over at this price. I also like the Under on his 1.5 walks allowed if you can find it.
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Blue Jays vs Tigers odds
Blue Jays vs Tigers live odds
Blue Jays vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 +150 | Detroit +1.5 -180
- Moneyline: Toronto -120 | Detroit +100
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Blue Jays vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened as slight road favorites before early action caused the line to jump the fence with the Tigers now -115 chalk.
- I'm not sure why Toronto opened as favorites other than Gausman starting. But Jack Flaherty has been the better pitcher to this point.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 and that's where it remains as of Thursday afternoon.
- Strong starting pitching and an inconsistent offense has made the Blue Jays a solid Under bet this season at 20-26 O/U.
Blue Jays vs Tigers trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games for +9.10 Units and a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Tigers
Blue Jays vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN1, BSDET |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (2-3, 4.89 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (1-3, 3.79 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Tigers latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Tigers weather
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