It has been a tough season for the Toronto Blue Jays, but for their part, they’ve been much more watchable in the second half.
Blue Jays vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Under 4.5 first five Innings (-139 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays have been much more fun to watch since the trade deadline, as they have started to relinquish at-bats to their young hitters.
It’s also been nice to see Kevin Gausman display his good stuff of late. The 33-year-old has battled his consistency this season, but he’s in a groove over his last four starts, pitching to a 2.00 ERA and limiting opponents to a .170 batting average.
Although Gausman will face a tough Minnesota Twins lineup, they have cooled off a bit, ranking 14th in batting average, 20th in OPS, and 18th in wRC+ over the last 14 games.
Countering Gausman is Twins ace Pablo Lopez. The right-hander is also dealing, boasting a 2.25 ERA and a .226 batting average over seven starts since the All-Star break. Lopez has also thrown 13 consecutive scoreless innings heading into this game. While Lopez hasn’t faced many of the Jays young hitters, he’s had the edge against those he’s faced, holding them to a .125 average.
Pitching will be the story early on, so I’ll take the first five-inning Under as my best bet. This also helps avoid a Blue Jays bullpen that can implode at a moment’s notice.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+162 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters this game hitting .324 with a .956 OPS, 27 home runs, and 88 RBI.
The fun thing about the superstar's current six-game hitting streak is that he has multiple hits in five of those games, including five RBI during that stretch. Although Vladdy is just 1-for-8 in his career against Pablo Lopez, the Jays slugger has a respectable .462 expected slugging when facing the Twins right-hander.
There aren’t many guys in baseball more locked in than Guerrero. I like him to get into one and hit the Over on 0.5 RBI, and at this price, our Covers Prop Projections have this as a five-star play.
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Blue Jays vs Twins odds
Blue Jays vs Twins live odds
Blue Jays vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +125 (-110) | Minnesota -150 (-110)
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-170) | Minnesota -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as +125 road underdogs but early bettors have preferred the home team, with Toronto now in the +145 range.
- The Twins have a small edge in starting pitching, but the big edge is in the bullpen where Minnesota ranks seventh in xFIP while Toronto sits 26th.
- Although the total hit the board at an even 8.0, some 7.5s are starting to show up as of early Friday afternoon.
- While I like the first five Under, the full game total makes me pause due to the Blue Jays suspect bullpen.
Blue Jays vs Twins trend
Toronto has only hit the F5 team total Over in four of its last 15 games (-8.25 Units / -47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Twins.
Blue Jays vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 8-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports North |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (12-9, 4.10 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Pablo Lopez (12-8, 4.26 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Twins latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Twins weather
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