Braves vs Blue Jays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Can Elder Keep Jays in Check?

The Toronto Blue Jays found a way to pick up a big underdog win (+134) last night vs. Spencer Strider and the Atlanta Braves and now turn to Jose Berrios this afternoon to keep the wins rolling as a -125 favorite.

Despite Atlanta starter Bryce Elder leading the league in ERA+, the books are giving bettors a hefty total of 9.5 today which some sharp books opened at 9. With the roof likely open, a pitcher’s umpire behind the plate, both bullpens fully available, and Berrios' splits favoring him at home, the edge today is on the Under if you can get the right number. 

Find out where my best bets lie in my Braves vs. Blue Jays MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, May 13. 

Braves vs Blue Jays odds

Braves vs Blue Jays predictions

Some books opened today’s total at 9 and moved to 9.5 quickly, but the Under is starting to take some action.

First of all, Bryce Elder is not an elite sub-2.00 ERA pitcher but the oddsmakers aren’t treating him like one either as this is the highest total he’s seen all season. He's seen a majority of 8s as his closing total. 

Secondly, Jose Berrios has settled down after two rough starts to open the season ballooned his ERA. He’s been pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA over his last five starts and his splits favor him at home where his ERA is two points better there since 2022. 

Aiding these two pitchers will also be one of the best pitcher umpires in Mike Estabrook, who THE BAT classifies as an extreme-pitcher umpire which is the highest ranking that favors the Under. Estabrook is 5-1 to the Over on the season, but four of those games were with closing totals of 8.5 or lower. 

The Braves have some of the best framing catchers in baseball as Sean Murphy currently leads all catchers in framing runs, Travis d’Arnaud is a plus framer, and Danny Jansen is an above-average framer. 

Additionally, the roof will likely be open at Rogers Center, which can decrease ball flight, and afternoon games with the roof open tend to be lower-scoring affairs compared to when the lid is closed. 

Both bullpens are ready to go, as well. The Blue Jays got a complete game from Chris Bassitt yesterday, so all of its arms are available while the Braves have everyone available thanks to an off day on Thursday.

Bettors will see two Top-6 scoring offenses, Berrios’ numbers, and the venue and immediately look at the Over, but plenty of the offensive numbers are priced into a total that Pinnacle opened at 9. The stuff that isn’t likely priced in mostly favors the Unders. If we see some weaker afternoon lineups, this total could see some late Under money come in. 

My best bet: Under 9.5 (-119 at SIA)

Braves vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

The Jays’ faced the best pitcher in baseball last night, and although they struck out in 46% of their at-bats vs. Spencer Strider, they capitalized vs. the Atlanta bullpen and got another elite performance from starter Chris Bassitt, who spun a complete-game, two-hit shutout vs. one of the best offenses in baseball.

Now the Jays swing nearly 50 points on the moneyline and sit as -125 home favorites after opening at -115. That means bettors are getting the Braves and Elder at plus money, which is something that doesn’t happen often, as Atlanta has been a dog just five times this season and is 4-1 SU in those games. 

One of those games was an Elder start vs. Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins where the Braves closed as +105 road dogs and the young Atlanta pitcher outpitched the reigning NL Cy Young pitcher going seven innings and allowing just three hits.

Elder, in his first full season with the club, has flown under the radar as a bright young pitcher as he leads the MLB in ERA+ at 252. But some underlying numbers indicate that he’s pitching well above expected.

First off, he’s stranding 89% of his runners, which is something that will certainly drop as his innings increase. 

Another thing is hard-hit rates. Opponents are hitting .219 off of him, but he currently sits in the Bottom 8% of the league in average exit velocity and hardhit%. His Baseball Savant page doesn't indicate an elite pitcher and his xERA is 4.30 — 2.5 runs above his actual ERA. I'm not saying he's a 4.50 ERA pitcher, but it's safe to say that he won't finish the year with a sub-2.00 ERA. 

The Blue Jays’ heavy-right-handed lineup also has a good matchup as righties are hitting 101 points better off of Elder than lefties. 

The market has moved towards the Jays for a reason, but Berrios is still a tough pitcher to trust as lefties are hitting him hard (.903 OPS against) but with the roof likely open and an extreme pitcher-friendly umpire in Estabrook behind the plate, Berrios could continue his decent run where he has a 2.93 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over his last five starts. His ugly first two outings are making his numbers look worse than his recent production. 

I have a slight edge on the Jays in this game thanks to Elder’s likely regression and some park factors in Berrios’ favor, but I wouldn’t take the Jays at anything shorter than -120.  

Braves vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

Pinnacle opened this at 9 but moved quickly to 9.5 where the rest of the market stands as well. 

I do see some edges in betting this Under today and wouldn’t be surprised if it took some money later this afternoon.

Elder is certainly pitching above expectations but we’re getting a decent total here and the books aren’t entirely fooled by his current success as this is the biggest total the Atlanta starter has seen this season.

Elder has also been getting a lot of ground balls which is great at Rogers Center but if the roof is open (likely with 60-degree temps in the city), balls don’t carry as much. That could really help Berrios, who is more of a flyball pitcher and has the higher HR/9.

Additionally, both starters will have an extreme-pitcher umpire, per THE BAT, and the Braves will have a plus-plus framing catcher in d’Arnaud or Murphy who currently leads the MLB in catcher framing runs. Toronto’s Danny Jansen is a better-than-average framer, too. 

Both lineups have great power and the books certainly know that and it’s priced in, but the pitching conditions and umpire could certainly play a big factor here giving a slight edge to the Under 9.5 at -125 or better. 

Braves vs Blue Jays game info

Starting pitchers

Bryce Elder (3-0, 1.74 ERA): The Braves are spoiled with young talent at seemingly every position, and that holds true on the mound with Elder, who leads all of baseball in ERA+ at 252 in just second season with the club. He’s allowed 33 hits across 41-plus innings and even though he isn’t a K/9 pitcher, batters are hitting just .219 off of him. Atlanta is 6-1 SU when he’s started this season. THE BAT is projecting 89 pitches, 15.5 outs, and 4.39 strikeouts. 

Jose Berrios (3-3, 4.91 ERA): Berrios has had an up-and-down campaign to begin 2023. He owns a .829 OPS on the road but has settled in much better at home this year where batters are hitting just .186 off him over two starts (TB and CHW). He’s been improving on his ERA that was at double digits after two starts as the right-hander has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Toronto is 3-4 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 94 pitches, 17.3 outs, 2.84 earned runs, and 5.37 strikeouts. 

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The Under is 7-1 in Elder’s last 8 road starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Blue Jays

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