Two teams grappling for the final NL Wild Card spot square off Tuesday night on the diamond as the Atlanta Braves (62-56) visit the San Francisco Giants (61-60). Atlanta took Game 1 in 10 innings as the first run of the game was also the last.
See which player prop I’m hunting in my MLB picks and Braves vs Giants predictions for Tuesday, August 13.
Braves vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Matt Champman Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Veteran Charlie Morton takes the mound for the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday. It’s admirable that the 40-year-old continues to chew up innings in the Big Leagues at his advanced age, but he’s showing signs of wear that stand from a bettor’s perspective.
Batters are getting to Morton this season for a 10.1% barrel rate, putting him in the 12th percentile. The tall righty’s 4.60 xERA and 4.76 FIP are both the highest they’ve been since 2010, a clear indication of decline.
Of the five pitches in the veteran’s arsenal, four have an xBA of .275 or higher and an xSLG of .528 or above.
The San Francisco Giants haven’t been great against RHP lately but set up decently well against a hittable Morton who has reverse splits. He’s been bashed by righties for a 5.22 FIP and .278 BA, paving the way for some SF bats to find success.
One player who stands out is third baseman Matt Chapman. The 31-year-old is red hot with a 180 wRC+ in August, collecting as many mult-hit games as home runs (4).
He has some encouraging metrics, swinging hard (98th percentile bat speed) and making quality contact (87th percentile barrel rate, 95th percentile average exit velocity). With a 122 wRC+ the highest it has been in a season since 2019, it’s evident that a move to SF was the right one.
Chapman’s total bases prop is listed at 1.5 with plus money to the Over. He’s cleared that bar in five of his last nine games while averaging 3.1 total bases in that span. Morton has notable reverse splits and is showing signs of decline, so I’m grabbing the plus money on a red-hot hitter.
Braves vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Matt Chapman 2+ total bases
Kyle Harrison Over 4.5 strikeouts
Tyler Fitzgerald to record a hit
Young lefty Kyle Harrison takes the mound for SF, meaning anything can happen. The 23-year-old has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his last 11 starts but has also had six outings where he’s allowed two or fewer. Blake Snell punched out 11 batters in Game 1, giving Atlanta the highest K rate against LHP since the break (35.5%). Harrison will have every opportunity to find five or more strikeouts on Tuesday.
Tyler Fitzgerald has been one of the hottest hitters in the MLB with a 216 wRC+ since the Break and has recorded a hit in 17 of his last 22 games, and he sets up well against an aging Morton with reverse splits.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Giants odds
Braves vs Giants live odds
Braves vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+145) | San Francisco +1.5 (-175)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -115 | San Francisco -105
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-130) | Under 8 (+100)
Braves vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta has lost five straight road games when Morton starts. The veteran has allowed a 5.14 ERA in away games this season.
- San Francisco has trended to the Under at home (27-32-1 O/U) while Atlanta has trended to the Under overall (46-67 O/U).
- Atlanta has cashed its First Five Innings (F5) team total Under in 35 of its last 56 away games.
Braves vs Giants trend
Opposing teams have averaged 2.3 right-handed batters recording 2 or more total bases against Atlanta across Morton’s last three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Giants.
Braves vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, NBCS-Bay Area |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (6-7, 4.47 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Kyle Harrison (6-5, 4.08 ERA) |
Braves vs Giants latest injuries
Braves vs Giants weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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