Tthe San Francisco Giants host the Milwaukee Brewers tonight at Oracle Park. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a -130 favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
My Brewers vs. Giants prediction is optimistic on the Over, primarily due to the pitching matchup involving Aaron Civale and Hayden Birdsong.
Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, September 10.
Brewers vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Aaron Civale takes the mound tonight against the San Francisco Giants, and he's a good candidate to fade. Through 27 starts, Civale is 5-8 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, the Giants hand the ball to right-hander Hayden Birdsong, who is 3-5 through 12 starts with a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Like Civale, Birdsong projects poorly in terms of analytics.
The rookie hurler ranks in the 21st percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Following Birdsong is a fade-worthy bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA.
This pitching staff will likely struggle against Milwaukee, a team that ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and stolen bases. While it is a small sample size, this current Brewers lineup boasts a dominant .286 BA, .571 SLG, and .412 wOBA through 19 combined career plate appearances against Birdsong. Simply put, Milwaukee's offense is quietly one of the best in the game, and the Brewers have the best run differential because of it.
Brewers vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Aaron Civale Under 4.5 strikeouts
Michael Conforto Over 0.5 hits
We are also going to fade Civale in the prop market as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has failed to surpass in five of his past eight starts.
If we are backing a high-scoring affair as well as fading Civale, then a highly correlated outcome would be for some Giants to record hits. Enter Michael Conforto, who has recorded at least one hit in each of his past four games.
This success is likely to continue against Civale, a pitcher against whom Conforto boasts .375 BA through nine plate appearances.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Giants odds
Brewers vs Giants live odds
Brewers vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -130 | San Francisco +106
- Run line: Milwaukee -1.5 (+135) | San Francisco +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Brewers vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -130 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I project this line to widen, given that the Brewers outrank the Giants in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
- The total remains at its opening number of 7.5.
- It is more likely that this total moves to eight rather than seven, due to all the aforementioned variables.
Brewers vs Giants trend
There have been eight or more total runs scored in five of San Francisco’s past seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Giants.
Brewers vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-BA |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (5-8, 4.59 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Hayden Birdsong (3-4, 5.14 ERA) |
Brewers vs Giants latest injuries
Brewers vs Giants weather
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