National League West rivals renew hostilities when the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the San Francisco Giants for the first time this season.
They’ll play the opener of a four-game set at Oracle Park with the Giants handing the ball to ace Logan Webb and Arizona countering with Ryne Nelson.
It’s been an inconsistent start for both teams early on but the MLB odds have San Francisco as big favorites with Webb on the mound. Check out my free MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs. Giants predictions below.
Diamondbacks vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Logan Webb to record a win (+140 at bet365)
My analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants entered this season with visions of competing with the Dodgers for the NL West crown.
Unfortunately, it’s been a bit of an uneven start for both teams. The Diamondbacks, who won last season’s NL Pennant, are just 9-10 entering this four-game set against the Giants who are just 8-11.
One thing that hasn’t been uneven has been the performance of Giants ace Logan Webb. The right-hander has been superb outside of getting smacked around by the Dodgers and we can give him a bit of a pass for that. Webb’s other three starts have been of the quality variety.
While he can give up his fair share of hits, they generally aren’t hit too hard. Webb’s combination of sinker, changeup, and slider makes him hard to square up. He ranks in the 81st percentile in barrel rate and the 69th percentile in average exit velocity.
That makes Webb the perfect guy to zap the pop out of the bats of an already struggling D-backs team.
This is a solid Arizona lineup from top to bottom, but they haven’t found their hitting rhythm yet, and Webb will be tough to find it against. The D-backs enter this matchup ranked 25th in batting average, 19th in OPS, and 20th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season. Webb has held current D-backs players to a .342 expected slugging percentage in his career.
Arizona counters Webb with Ryne Nelson. The right-hander is coming off his best start of the season, limiting the Cardinals to one run on seven hits over six innings. However, he got tagged for seven earned runs on 10 hits in just 7 2/3 in his first two starts vs. the Braves and the Yankees.
The Giants aren’t those guys, but this is an underrated lineup and ranks eighth in wRC+ vs. righties over the last week.
Webb and the Giants are set up well here. I like him to pitch deep and leave the game with the lead. That should be enough for him to earn the win tonight.
Diamondbacks vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Webb to record the win
Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 hits
Michael Conforto Over 0.5 RBI
One of the players Webb will frustrate tonight is Gabriel Moreno, who's off to a bit of a slow start. He's hitting just .239 this season and is not squaring up the ball, ranking in the 14th percentile or worse in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. That's not a recipe for success vs. Webb.
Moreno has four hits in nine at-bats vs. the Giants ace but the contact hasn’t been great with just a .283 expected slugging. I like Webb’s chances of keeping him hitless tonight.
And one player who will help power the Giants to that win will be Michael Conforto. I did a full breakdown on this in today’s MLB prop picks article, but quickly Conforto is off to a great start, hitting .292 with a .897 OPS and driving in 14 runs. He’s also 3-for-7 with a double and a home run when digging in against Nelson.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Giants odds
Diamondbacks vs Giants live odds
Diamondbacks vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-155) | San Francisco -1.5 (+130)
- Moneyline: Arizona +145 | San Francisco -170
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Diamondbacks vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Giants opened this NL West matchup as sizeable -170 home favorites but early bettors have seen value in the Diamondbacks as road underdogs with the line now at San Francisco -150.
- This is the first meeting of the season between these teams. Arizona had a slight edge last year winning seven of the 13 matchups.
- The total hit the board at an even 8 but Under money is starting to come in as 7.5s are starting to pop up at some books.
- Webb is set up well to limit a struggling Arizona lineup that has cashed the Under in seven of its last 10 games. San Francisco has gone Under in eight of 12.
Diamondbacks vs Giants trend
The Giants have stayed Under the total in 54 of their last 85 games dating back to last season for +21.55 units and a 23% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Diamondbacks vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Ryne Nelson (1-2, 5.27 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (1-1, 3.60 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Giants latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Giants weather
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