The opening game of this NL series gets underway on Monday with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers at American Family Field.
MLB odds have L.A. as a slight -118 favorite, but our Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions are looking the other way.
Dodgers vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Brewers moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Left-hander Clayton Kershaw makes his fourth start of the campaign on Monday and he makes for a good fade candidate tonight. His comeback has not gone smoothly, posting a 0-2 record with a 4.38 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally concerning given that, if he officially qualified, Kershaw would rank in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, and strikeout rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that boasts a dominating .500 SLG against the southpaw through 43 combined career plate appearances.
Meanwhile, right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Brewers. Although it’s been an up-and-down campaign for Peralta, he still outranks Kershaw in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and strikeout rate.
He's also 2-1 through five career meetings against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a commanding 2.63 ERA. The bullpen edge also goes to Milwaukee, given that its relief staff outranks the Dodgers in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
That just leaves the hitting, which is a wash considering both teams are tied for fourth in the league in runs scored per game. Additionally, this current L.A. lineup possesses a mere .195 BA, .329 SLG, and .283 wOBA through 94 combined career plate appearances against Peralta.
Dodgers vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers moneyline
Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts
Will Smith Under 0.5 hits
When Peralta’s game is on, it’s due to his ability to rack up strikeouts. This season, he ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff rate and 90th percentile in strikeout rate.
If we're expecting a strong performance from Peralta, then a highly correlated outcome would be for L.A. to struggle at the dish. That brings us to Will Smith, who possesses a mere .167 BA through seven career plate appearances against Peralta. He's also failed to record a hit in nine of his past 13 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Brewers odds
Dodgers vs Brewers live odds
Dodgers vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+158) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-192)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -110 | Milwaukee -110
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Dodgers vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This game opened as a pick'em before the market swayed the line toward the Dodgers.
- The market almost always favors the Dodgers, so this line movement should not be shocking.
- The total opened at 8 and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- Given both teams are tied for fourth in the league in runs scored per game, I don’t think that this total will drop to 7.5.
Dodgers vs Brewers trend
The Brewers have won five of their past six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Brewers.
Dodgers vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Monday, 8-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet Los Angeles, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 4.38 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (7-6, 4.02 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Brewers latest injuries
Dodgers vs Brewers weather
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