The New York Yankees took the series opener 10-4 against the Kansas City Royals on Monday, and the two AL contenders will go toe-to-toe at Yankee Stadium again tonight.
K.C. starter Seth Lugo is showing signs of his career-high workload catching up with him over the past two months, and my Royals vs. Yankees predictions are calling for his second-half slide to continue against the dangerous New York lineup.
Read about it in my MLB picks for September 10
Royals vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Seth Lugo Under 17.5 outs recorded (+107 at Pinnacle)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Make no mistake, Seth Lugo has been excellent this season, but the former reliever is up to a career-high 186 innings... and it’s showing. He rolled through the first three months of the season with a sterling 2.17 ERA while allowing a .266 BABIP and 85.5% strand rate. All three marks were unsustainable alongside his 3.80 xFIP, though, and the good luck is waning.
Since then, he’s posted an uninspiring 4.50 ERA and 4.05 xFIP while opposing hitters sport a .299 BABIP and 39.2% hard-hit rate through 11 starts since the calendar flipped to July. The 34-year-old righty is also coming off a 103-pitch outing against the Cleveland Indians last time out.
Of course, this nod is as much about the New York Yankees offense. The Yanks at homer-happy Yankee Stadium is a nightmare matchup. New York paces the bigs in wOBA (.341), ISO (.197) and on-base percentage (.336) against right-handed arms, and the Bombers also rank second overall in all three marks at home.
Add the Yankees showing improved patience at the dish with a second-ranked 10.9% walk rate and below-average 21.3% K rate during their current 15-13 stretch, and Lugo’s highlight slide stands to continue Tuesday.
Aaron Judge pick: Judge getting back into the swing of things
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (+115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Aaron Judge got back on track Monday with a 2-for-4 showing at the dish with a run and a RBI, but it still only improved him to a .213/.362/.277 slash line with just three extra-base hits across his past 13 games. Considering he boasts a 65.5% hard-hit rate during the slump, it’s safe to say it will be short lived.
The MLB home run leader paces the majors in wOBA (.461) against RHP, and his .325 batting average ranks fourth. Additionally, 92 of his 126 RBI have come against righties, and he’s also straight up mashed at Yankee Stadium with a .496 wOBA and .403 ISO.
Royals vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees Over 3.5 runs
Seth Lugo Under 17.5 outs
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI
All three legs of this same-game parlay are correlated, and I'm expecting the New York offense to put runs on the board against Lugo. The Yankees got to the righty to the tune of four runs on eight hits and a walk across seven innings in their June 10 matchup, and that was when Lugo was rocking a 2.13 ERA.
In addition to the highlighted strength of the New York lineup, the Yankees have also averaged 4.93 runs per home game this season and 5.26 in the second half.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Yankees odds
Royals vs Yankees live odds
Royals vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +116 | New York -147
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-175) | New York -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-116) | Under 8.5 (-109)
Royals vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been notable movement to this moneyline since opening at either bet365 or Pinnacle.
- It’s been a similar story with the total. Pinnacle has adjusted its odds slightly but is back at its opening 8.5 (-111/-101), while bet365 hasn’t moved off its opening 8.5 (-115/-105).
- There is obviously still time for the numbers in both markets to move, but it’s usually early action that moves the needle in the MLB, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we only see minor tweaks the rest of the way.
Royals vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees pace the majors in wOBA (.341), ISO (.197) and on-base percentage (.336) against right-handed pitchers. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Yankees.
Royals vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, New York, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Kansas City, YES |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Brady Singer (15-8, 3.05 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (10-7, 4.03 ERA) |
Royals vs Yankees latest injuries
Royals vs Yankees weather
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