The Los Angeles Dodgers come into this matchup hot against the Milwaukee Brewers, but a man by the name of Frankie Montas has me siding with the Brew Crew in my Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions.
I explain why in my MLB picks for this August 14 tilt.
Dodgers vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Brewers moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I’ve loathed Frankie Montas over the years — and who can blame me? He had so much potential with solid strikeout numbers and a now-abandoned sinker which could be used to pitch to contact on the ground, yet he turned into a failure, and four different teams have now given up trying to fix him.
Well, the Milwaukee Brewers have had a knack for repairing troubled arms in the past and it would seem Montas is on the right trajectory just two starts into his tenure in Milwaukee.
In two starts, his .226 xBA and 27.9% strikeout rate mark the best month of his tumultuous season. He’s begun to pitch to more fly balls and throw his four seamer a bit more, and given the league splits against fly-ball pitchers and the results on his fastball, that would seem to be a winning combination.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, like most teams, have had far less success in racking up baserunners against fly-ball pitchers, but they rank 10th in OPS in this split as compared to third against ground-ball arms. They’ve also struggled to hit fastballs this season with the eighth-worst pitch value, and that’s only fallen to third-worst in the past two weeks.
So, I think despite a recent uptick in production, this lineup may wind up flailing against an improving Montas. That’s tough news when you consider Walker Buehler will be making his return from injury here after a very rocky season to this point.
Buehler’s ERA through two rehab stints in the minors stands at 4.98 with a 1.72 WHIP which has been largely due to a bundle of walks and a ton of well-hit balls in the air. The results in the big leagues haven’t been a whole lot better, either, with a .276 xBA and gaudy .465 xSLG both missing the league average by quite a large margin.
The Brewers have been improving at the dish of late, hitting for more power, and have only really been victimized by the strikeout. Buehler’s done little to impose fear in that area and has been struggling mightily this season, so I’ll give the edge to the home team.
Dodgers vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers moneyline
Frankie Montas 5+ strikeouts
Willy Adames 2+ total bases
First and foremost, if you’re tailing this parlay, you’ll want to do so at DraftKings, as FanDuel is offering just +509 on this specific combination.
With that said, Montas' strikeout rate is just a hair shy of 28% this month, and while he’s flatlined when it comes to getting swings and misses, the whiff rate on his fastball is now up for a second straight month.
The Dodgers may not be striking out a ton right now, but they’re struggling vs. fastballs and rank 10th in baseball in whiff rate on the four-seamer, which should aid Montas in his quest for third strikes.
I’m a bit surprised to see oddsmakers hanging this price on Willy Adames. He’s been one of the team’s hottest hitters this month, hitting .310 with six of his 13 hits going for extra bases, and he’s considerably better against right-handers at .273 as opposed to lefties, where he’s hitting .191.
He’s also posted a .871 OPS at home compared to a .714 on the road and ranks first on this team in total bases against “finesse” arms like Buehler.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Brewers odds
Dodgers vs Brewers live odds
Dodgers vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+125) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-155)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -135 | Milwaukee +110
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Dodgers vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a slight underdog of +112 but moved down to even money on Wednesday afternoon.
- The Brewers have commanded just 25% of the bets but 33% of the handle at DraftKings.
- The total remains at the opening number of nine runs, though after a firm trend up early in the betting window, it’s now trending towards 8.5 runs.
- That trend comes in spite of just 34% of the cash and 36% of tickets on the Under.
Dodgers vs Brewers trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the moneyline in 67 of their last 119 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Brewers.
Dodgers vs Brewers game info
| Location: | Stadium, City, State/Province |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet LA, Bally Wisconsin |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (1-4, 5.84 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Frankie Montas (5-8, 5.10 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Brewers latest injuries
Dodgers vs Brewers weather
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