Despite their overall success, the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation has been a mess all season, whether due to injuries or ineffectiveness. That's not ideal against the Philadelphia Phillies.
And while Landon Knack has been solid, my Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions expect a short outing this evening.
See how I'm targeting Knack's short leash in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 11.
Dodgers vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Landon Knack Under 1.5 walks allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Landon Knack has mostly performed admirably as a fill-in option for the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation as the club deals with injuries and instability among the SP ranks. At least part of that has been how conservative the Dodgers have been when deploying him.
The 26-year-old right-hander has thrown more than 90 pitches once in seven outings, which happens to be the one time he completed six innings. In his other seven starts, he's finished five frames three times while pitching into the fifth on the other three occasions, being limited to between 64 and 85 pitches each time. And he hasn't been bad! Before allowing four earned runs in his most recent start, Knack had accumulated a 2.08 ERA across 30 1/3 innings.
That short leash could be on display again today as he faces arguably his toughest test as a major leaguer: the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies rank in the Top 7 in most offensive categories (home runs, runs scored, OBP, slugging, wRC+) and have made life miserable for opposing pitchers all season. With Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper off the IL, they're a step closer to full strength.
The Phillies are a patient ball club, which could be a cause for concern regarding the Under on Knack's walks prop. However, that is likely being priced into the even money number we're getting. Knack has issued one walk or less in five of his seven outings, and the Dodgers' reluctance to expose him a third time through batting orders can help us today.
Knack pitches to contact and has been dinged by the home run ball, allowing seven homers in 34 2/3 innings. Pairing that with his relative efficiency and history of short outings means we're getting solid value for him to limit the free passes once again.
Dodgers vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Landon Knack Under 1.5 walks
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 total bases
Schwarber has one of the best chances at doing damage against Knack. He has 18 home runs on the season despite spending some time on the IL.
On the opposite side, Shohei Ohtani faces Aaron Nola for the first time. DraftKings has his total bases set at 2.5, which is steep, but he can still clear this number with one swing. If you want to play it a little safer, the SGP comes out to +425 if you take his alt total of 2+. But fortune favors the bold and Ohtani is batting .325 with 17 doubles, three triples, and 21 home runs against right-handed pitching this season.
There is always an inherent risk in same-game parlays, but the boost in odds is worth rolling the dice on the extra total base.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Phillies odds
Dodgers vs Phillies live odds
Dodgers vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-155) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+130)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +125 | Philadelphia -150
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-115) | Under 9.5 (-105)
Dodgers vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- After opening with the Dodgers +125 and Phillies -150, the moneyline hasn't seen significant movement in either direction.
- The Dodgers aren't playing their best at the moment, going 4-6 straight up over their last 10 games.
- The total opened at 9.5 but has ticked down to a flat 9.0 at most books. You can get plus money on the Over 9.5 where still available.
- L.A. has gone 48-44 O/U while Philly is 41-46 O/U.
Dodgers vs Phillies trend
Philadelphia has hit the team total Over in 46 of their last 75 games (+12.45 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Phillies
Dodgers vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, NBCSP |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Landon Knack (1-2, 2.86 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (9-4, 3.43 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Phillies latest injuries
Dodgers vs Phillies weather
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